Success Rests on Pint-Sized Attention Spans

If you’re looking to spend more time with the family during the holidays, try taking them to a movie.

It’s easy to tell that it’s the holiday season, and not just by the media barrage and advertising saturation for films like “Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone,” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring,” but the fact that “event” style movies seem to announce themselves in running time. With the possible exception of Disney/Pixar’s computer-animated “Monsters, Inc.,” many of the major holiday releases will clock in at well over two hours.

While adults may have the stamina to sit through two-hour-plus holiday films such as “Ali,” “The Majestic” and “Black Hawk Down,” it remains to be seen whether “Harry Potter” and “Lord of the Rings” can hold children’s attention for 21/2 to three hours. If anyone gets twitchy during a long movie, it is theater owners, since they see dollars flying out the window because of fewer shows (and, consequently, a reduction in the all-important concession sales).

“The conventional wisdom with family films is get ‘em in and get ‘em out,” says Paul Dergarabedian, president of the box office tracking company Exhibitor Relations. Most animated movies--”Monsters, Inc.,” “Shrek” and “Toy Story 2”--are no more than 90 minutes in length, he points out. Live-action family films sometimes run slightly longer, he adds; “Home Alone” and “Dr. Seuss’ How the Grinch Stole Christmas” were slightly more than 100 minutes.

Warner Bros. and New Line Cinema (both AOL Time Warner companies), which are releasing “Potter” and “Rings,” respectively, say they are optimistic about the response of younger audiences to the length of their two putative blockbuster films.

“I’ve sat through movies that are only 90 minutes and they seem long,” says Dan Fellman, distribution head at Warner Bros. Any concern about “Harry Potter,” he says, was dispelled by exhibitor screenings. According to Fellman, many exhibitors brought their children and reported to him that “the kids were on the edge of their seat for 21/2 hours.”

Whether it will be able to set an opening weekend record, however, is another matter, Dergarabedian says. Many films have tried to unseat the current champ “The Lost World: Jurassic Park,” which took in $72.1 million in the first three days of the Memorial Day weekend in 1997. Even with higher ticket prices, no film has succeeded. Only “The Mummy Returns,” which earned $68.1 million in May of this year, came close.

“But this one has a chance,” he says.

The PG-rated “Potter” is set to debut in more than 3,300 locations Nov. 16. Fellman says “anything is possible,” when asked if “Potter” can upset the Spielberg dinosaur sequel, which ran about 130 minutes. With mega-plex bookings (five and six screens per location) and staggered running times “Potter” can still maximize its gross potential, he contends.

At the outset, about the only downside to “Potter” may be the teen market, which may view it as strictly a kids’ film. However, another kid-oriented film, Disney/Pixar’s computer animated “Monsters, Inc.” sold almost $63 million in tickets in 3,237 theaters last weekend, though its running time was around 90 minutes, allowing for more shows.

Notes Fellman: “The [‘Harry Potter’] books have sold 117 million copies worldwide, so there is a huge fan base. The rest is up to the movie gods.”

Whether it smashes records in its first three days or not, “Potter” has the advantage of the five-day Thanksgiving holiday its second weekend. Last year, “How the Grinch Stole Christmas” opened the weekend before Thanksgiving to a $55-million debut in 3,127 theaters and added another $73.5 million over the five-day Thanksgiving holiday.

“Harry Potter” has a five-week jump on another major family film, “Lord of the Rings,” which is closer to three hours in length and will open Dec. 19 on between 2,500 and 3,000 screens. “I don’t think the issue of length is any concern,” says New Line Cinema’s marketing chief Russell Schwartz.

“It’s not about having a $75-million opening weekend. A film like ‘Titanic’ was more than three hours and never did more than $30 million a weekend.” he points out. “Titanic” eventually grossed more than $600 million in the U.S. alone, the largest-grossing film of all time.

The strategy for “Lord of the Rings” is to set the stage for the trilogy, which will follow over the next two Christmas seasons, says producer Mark Ordesky. The “Ring” series skews more toward an audience aged 12 and older (the film is rated PG-13) and seeks to appeal to the same audience sought by the “Star Wars” movies.

The first prequel in the “Star Wars” series, “Episode I: The Phantom Menace” (133 minutes) did not break the “Lost World” record. Fox decided to pass on opening the film as wide as possible to build buzz on the movie, similar to the hopes for “Rings.”

“Potter” is the first in a franchise of seven planned movies. The second film starts production this winter for release next Thanksgiving, with the rest tentatively set to follow the same schedule for the next five years.

Even if “Potter” breaks the “Lost World” record, it may be short-lived.

Other upcoming monster franchises include the second prequel for the “Star Wars” trilogy, “Attack of the Clones,” which debuts in May, with the third episode to follow in 2005. And in 2003 there will be two “Matrix” movies, one in summer and one during the holiday season.