First BCS Standings Will Have Little Importance

The first bowl championship series standings will be released today and our advice is, don’t blink and don’t panic.

Last year’s unveiling at halftime of “Monday Night Football” was given such short shrift--a quick screen tease followed by a Chris Berman speed read--we thought the bit was an experiment in subliminal advertising.

Also, don’t let the numbers beat you down; we’re paid to walk you through this stuff.

What to expect?

This could be a repeat of 1998, that mind-numbing, number-crunching march into November, with UCLA in the briar-patch thick of it.

That was the season that left us wondering whether UCLA, had it defeated Miami on that dark December day, would have edged out Kansas State for the No. 2 spot in the first-ever BCS standings.

Refresher course graph: Only the schools with the two lowest BCS point totals at season’s end will advance to the Jan. 3 national championship game at the Rose Bowl.

Prevailing wisdom in ’98 held that UCLA would have outpointed Kansas State, which blew its title chances by losing to Texas A&M; in the Big 12 title game.

The UCLA and Kansas State defeats allowed one-loss Florida State, from the comfort of its collective couch, to jump to No. 2 and play Tennessee in the Fiesta Bowl.

This year could be just as hairy. With two of the eight computer operators holding back their rankings until after the official BCS release, it’s impossible to pin down exact numbers.

We can say this: A national title appearance appears to be UCLA’s to lose.

Mock BCS standings, minus two computers, have Oklahoma and Nebraska as the top two teams this week with UCLA No. 3.

Oklahoma plays at Nebraska this week, which will knock the loser out, leaving UCLA to fill the void provided the Bruins take care of business at Stanford, not to mention the rest of a killer schedule that includes Washington State, Oregon, USC and Arizona State.

The first BCS standings should be viewed with care. The national title race is not over by a long shot, and the computer numbers will change like Dow Jones numbers.

Example: Miami is No. 1 in both polls but only No. 4 in mock BCS projections, yet the Hurricanes will pick up points in the computer and strength-of-schedule components with season-ending games against No. 13 Washington and No. 5 Virginia Tech.

The X-factor is the new quality-win component. A school will have bonus points deducted from its final BCS total for wins against teams that finish in the top 15 of the final standings.

The quality-win component works on a sliding scale--a high of 1.5 points for a victory over No. 1 or as few as 0.1 for a win over No. 15.

To date, UCLA can count only a 0.3 bonus for its win against Washington, but would receive zero points if Washington falls from the top 15.

Oklahoma, conversely, can count 0.9 points for its win over No. 7 Texas, and will pick up additional points if it beats No. 3 Nebraska this weekend.

The quality-win twist could loom large in determining the Rose Bowl participants.

Irish Woes

You can understand why many Notre Dame fans might be lukewarm over Saturday’s win against USC in South Bend, Ind., because victory only bought beleaguered Coach Bob Davie more rope. We’ll say it again: the guy is Steve Lavin. Every time you think he’s dust, Davie pulls out a win that seems to earn him a contract extension.

With Tennessee, Stanford and Purdue still on the schedule, Davie needs to say a few more vespers to work his way out of his 3-3 ditch, but we’ve seen him do it many times before.

Fresno State, the Aftermath

How did this heartwarming story turn sour so fast? Fresno State’s loss Friday to Boise State knocked the Bulldogs out of BCS bowl contention and, frankly, a lot of people were happy to see them go.

Some opposing coaches were becoming critical of Fresno State’s rapid rise, complaining about the school’s use of “nonqualifiers” to fight its way into the AP top 10.

Most major conferences, including the Pacific 10, do not allow “nonqualifiers,” players who don’t meet academic eligibility requirements but are allowed to play after sitting out a season.

That rap was unwarranted.

More troubling was Fresno State’s on-field behavior. Many fans who got their first look at Fresno State in Friday’s ESPN game were appalled at the vicious and illegal hit Kendall Edwards put on helpless Boise State punt return man Tim Gilligan.

Edwards put a similar shot on an Oregon State player in the opener. Friday night’s hit led to Edwards’ ejection and seemed only to inspire Boise State.

This is not the face Coach Pat Hill wanted stamped on his program, but as Fresno State fades into the BCS backdrop, Edwards’ cheap shot is what some will remember.

Rose Bowl Tracking Poll

In the game this week: Nebraska versus Virginia Tech. Oh boy, we’re guessing ABC is not doing somersaults over this prospect. Possible pregame festivities include: Former Coach Tom Osborne reading the national anthem in his Midwestern deadpan.

Still has a float in the parade: Oklahoma, UCLA, Miami.

Hey, what about us: Washington State, Maryland, Brigham Young.

Comments: Washington State is about to get some legitimate attention with upcoming games against Oregon, UCLA and Washington. Maryland is intriguing but still seems to lack BCS clout. BYU is a video game.

Thanks for participating: Oregon. You Ducks rode that seat-of-your-pants game plan a week too long.