Rising Bush Tide Won’t Lift GOP Out of Doldrums

Suddenly President Bush looks like a pretty decent fellow to Californians. Nobody knows how long that will last. But let’s assume the president is leading America to victory over terrorism a year from now and his portrait is hanging in homes everywhere.

How much will Bush’s popularity benefit Republican candidates in California legislative and congressional races? Can it make a difference on election day?

Sure, it can help. But probably not enough to produce winners.

The California GOP can’t take full advantage of the president’s enhanced image because it already has settled for a “status quo” election result--an outcome that will keep the party a weak minority in the Legislature and outnumbered in the U.S. House delegation.

This status quo has been written into the 10-year redistricting plans passed with overwhelming bipartisan support by the Legislature and expected soon to be signed by Gov. Gray Davis.

Both Democrats and Republicans, in effect, have cashed out--Democrats while they’re far ahead, Republicans while they’ve still got rent money.

“A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush,” says Senate GOP Leader Jim Brulte of Rancho Cucamonga.

Or, one probable victory sounded better than two iffy races when Bush was looking weak in California.

“The whole dynamics have changed,” says Allan Hoffenblum, editor of the California Target Book, which analyzes congressional and legislative contests.

“I can assure you if Brulte and [Assembly GOP Leader Dave Cox of Fair Oaks] had a crystal ball, the districts would not look like they do today.”

So why did the GOP lock itself into minority status for the foreseeable future?

First, it was weak and getting pummeled. It wanted to stop the bleeding. Any more losing elections like the last three in California and the party would be virtually irrelevant. Republicans are outnumbered 32 to 20 in the House delegation, 26 to 14 in the state Senate and 50 to 30 in the Assembly.

These are minimum numbers for relevancy. If Democrats ever got to 27 in the Senate and 54 in the Assembly, they’d have a two-thirds majority and enough votes to pass any bill without Republican help. Backed by a Democratic governor, the majority already had enough muscle to enact a partisan gerrymander that--or so it seemed--could eliminate even more GOP seats.

Second, and most importantly, California Republicans wanted to guard their 20 House seats and protect the president from a potential Democratic takeover.

Democrats need to pick up a net six seats nationwide to recapture the House. With Republican gerrymandering in other states, the GOP is confident it can retain control--if it doesn’t lose any of the 20 seats from California.

“The White House told us,” Brulte says, “that 20 seats in California would be a big win.”

Democrats grabbed it. Status quo for the House and the Legislature. A party, after all, can get too greedy--overextend itself, get lured into fighting too many battles.

Part of the deal was a GOP agreement not to contest the redistricting in court.

Because of population growth, California was awarded one additional House seat. That was drawn in southeast L.A. County to favor a Democrat. Most other legislative and congressional districts were redrawn to help the party already holding them.

There’ll be fewer competitive races next year.

“Neither side can lose or gain tremendously,” says Tony Quinn, a GOP redistricting veteran. “Outcomes have been predetermined. They will not be decided by the ebb and flow of politics.”

But the tide may be rising for Republicans as Americans--Californians included--gain confidence in Bush, who lost this state last November by 12 points.

A recent statewide survey by the independent Field Poll found a dramatic increase in the president’s job performance rating. Just before the terrorist attacks, 42% of California voters approved of Bush’s performance; 44% disapproved. Immediately afterward, 74% approved and only 16% disapproved.

GOP pollster Steve Kinney also found 77% job approval for Bush after the attacks.

Notes Republican campaign consultant Richard Temple: “Anything that improves the image of George Bush improves the image of the Republican Party, which then helps all Republican candidates.”

And if we’re at war, those losing issues for Republicans--abortion, guns, environment--may diminish in importance to the electorate.

But the GOP already has raised the white flag. “The Republicans were patsies,” says Democratic consultant Darry Sragow.

It seemed the safe, prudent move at the time. But no risk, no gain.