A Breakup With L.A. Won’t Be Easy

With the financial analysis now complete, the debate over Valley secession turns to politics, where it is likely to become more starkly combative.

“Now the nitty-gritty starts,” said Larry Berg, the founding director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at USC. “Get out the money and take the gloves off and start debating this issue.

“Secessionists really have had pretty much of a free ride in terms of influencing the public,” he added. “Now I think we’re going to see a full-blown campaign. And I think it’s going to be a lot harder for them to get the vote than they think it is.”

Before the Local Agency Formation Commission can put any secession measure on the ballot, it is required to determine that the seceding area would be financially viable and that secession would not hurt the city left behind. A report issued Friday clears that hurdle.

But viability isn’t a very high standard, something opponents of secession will start pointing out, said Cal State Fullerton political scientist Raphael Sonenshein.

“I think they will start to poke holes into this idea of viability, to talk about what it means,” he said. “You can always make a debate that a city is viable, that it can exist, but that doesn’t answer the key questions.

“Will services be better or worse or the same? Will taxes end up higher or lower or the same? Now all these assumptions are at last subject to a real back and forth, a real argument.”

Opponents of secession who have been trying to get their points across say they’re expecting much more help now--not just from Mayor James K. Hahn, who has promised to raise $5 million to fight secession ballot measures, but from the many people who have said they were waiting to read the LAFCO reports before deciding where they stand.

“I think you will be hearing in the next few weeks more people stepping up to the plate and not saying, ‘Well, I want to hear the study.’ I think more people will be taking it seriously at last,” said Irene Tovar, president of the Latin American Civic Assn. and a veteran organizer in the mostly Latino Northeast Valley.

“We’ve got to get out there and start challenging all the LAFCO assumptions.”

Friday’s report concerned only the viability of San Fernando Valley secession.

Still unknown, and potentially pivotal, is LAFCO’s final stand on two other secession movements--for an independent Hollywood and harbor area. For any secession measure to pass, a majority vote is required not just in the seceding area but in the city as a whole.

That structure creates possibilities for strategic alliances that could help all three efforts.

“You may be having people from three different cities working together on a combined yes vote, and that could be very effective,” said Republican strategist Arnold Steinberg. “From a mathematical standpoint, they’d have to be better off together.

“Right away, you’ve almost got a majority talking about cityhood.”

Certainly, that’s how Hollywood secessionist Gene LaPietra, president of Hollywood Voters Organized Toward Empowerment, was thinking. He said he was thrilled with Friday’s LAFCO report on the Valley.

“It’s a big day for all of us. It just takes us to a whole new level,” he said. “It’s legitimacy. The report is a conclusive work done with $2 million of effort to get the truth.”

He said he expects an equally positive report on an independent Hollywood, and predicts people all over the city will join the secessionist bandwagon.

But what some see as strength in numbers may also spark fears, said Rick Taylor, who has run many Los Angeles political campaigns. The idea of three chunks of Los Angeles wanting to break away at once could hurt secession, he said.

“It may be too much and backfire, because when people start thinking about the breaking up of the city totally, it may scare people, too,” he said.

Still, Taylor, who personally opposes secession, said he must acknowledge its growing momentum. “I used to think it was impossible. Now I think it’s a horse race,” Taylor said. “I’m really surprised at how much support secession has.”