Simon Camp Fears Loss of Momentum

Just weeks after pulling off one of the most stunning political upsets in California history, gubernatorial hopeful Bill Simon Jr. is facing growing doubts within his own Republican Party about his ability to oust incumbent Democrat Gray Davis.

Plagued by poor fund-raising, friction among campaign advisors and continued tensions with the Bush White House, Simon is being widely, if quietly, criticized for failing to better capitalize on his momentum after romping past Richard Riordan in the March 5 primary.

The general election is not until November, leaving plenty of time for circumstances to change. And Simon has been underestimated before; even some aides questioned his ability to come from behind and beat Riordan in the Republican race.

Still, the doubts about Simon run the risk of compounding his problems, creating a cycle in which a lack of confidence in GOP circles hurts Simon’s fund-raising and political viability--and that, in turn, further diminishes Simon’s fund-raising and political viability.

Publicly, the candidate professes not to worry. “You know, they said the same thing in the primary,” Simon remarked of his doubters, noting their exhortations to spend more money and start television advertising earlier than he did.

Privately, however, even Simon advisors concede that the candidate still has a selling job to do, particularly among centrists within his own party and independents. Of greater immediate concern is the resistance from major Republican Party donors, whose support is vital to raising the $30 million to $40 million he will need to wage a serious campaign against the richly funded Davis.

At the same time, the Simon campaign has been wrestling behind the scenes with disagreements over staffing and budget matters, as the White House and other outsiders press the candidate to expand his campaign’s ranks and broaden his strategy team to include additional, more seasoned professionals, according to Republicans in touch with both camps. So far, Simon has done little to broaden his appeal--or outreach--beyond the GOP’s conservative core.

“My honest view is that Davis is vulnerable and Simon can win,” said Republican pollster Arnold Steinberg, who is not affiliated with the Simon campaign. “But I’m meeting with some skepticism when I say that.”

Others, speaking anonymously, were blunter still. “There’s a sense among Republicans that this is winnable, but there’s a ‘but’ attached,” said one Republican, who is prominent in Sacramento and wished to remain unidentified for the sake of party unity. “It’s winnable, but it will still take a very good campaign and I don’t think there’s any assurance yet that’s going to happen.”

Frustrations were compounded this week after Davis threw Simon on the defensive for failing to release his income tax returns, something the governor does along with most candidates for high office. The controversy turned the focus away from recent developments that could have hurt the governor had they gotten more attention.

“Davis says he might cut education funding, his administration spends millions of dollars on a computer system the state doesn’t need and Bill Simon is talking about Karl Marx,” one GOP strategist complained, referring to Simon’s comments comparing Davis to the father of socialism after being pressed about his tax history.

Counting on a ‘Spring in GOP Step’ From Bush

Strategists for Simon acknowledge getting off to a slow start. In fact, even campaign insiders acknowledge they had no strategy beyond 8 p.m. on March 5, when the polls closed in the Republican primary. (For his part, Riordan had filmed TV commercials and planned to start airing them the next day.)

The Simon team is now counting heavily on a boost from President Bush, who plans to headline a pair of fund-raisers at the end of the month, in Beverly Hills and Foster City, a suburb south of San Francisco. The twin appearances are expected to raise several million dollars and, perhaps as important, invigorate party activists who have seen few traces of Simon since his primary win.

“I think a lot of this despondency is premature,” said Kevin Spillane, who served as political director of the Riordan campaign. “If Bush comes out and raises $3 million to $4 million”--as the Simon campaign predicts--”I think you’ll see a new spring in Republicans’ step.”

Both campaigns are faced with an unusual dynamic in this election season, a result of the state’s unprecedented March 5 vote. In years past, California held its gubernatorial primaries in June, leaving just a few summer months before the traditional fall kickoff on Labor Day. This year, the candidates faced an eight-month lag between the primary and the general election, a period too long for a sustained TV campaign. For that reason, neither Davis nor Simon has aired any post-primary advertising--despite expectations that Davis might seize the airwaves the way he did against Riordan to preemptively pound his opponent.

“The early primary and consequently the length of the general election campaign makes it difficult,” said David Doak, the campaign strategist who produces Davis’ TV spots. “Once we go up, we want to stay up, except for a few strategic breathers.”

Simon, in turn, has just a small fraction of the $30 million that Davis has in his campaign account. His fund-raising has been weak--he collected just $160,000 in a swing through Washington last week--and, so far, the wealthy investor has shown little inclination to sink much of his own money into the fall contest. Thus, it may be months before Simon resurfaces on TV.

For many Californians, watching advertisements on television is pretty much the extent of their engagement in politics. For them, the gubernatorial campaign has essentially disappeared. That is not to say, however, that this quiet time is unimportant or irrelevant to the outcome in November.

“Most people aren’t paying attention right now,” said Dan Schnur, a longtime Republican communications strategist. “But those people who are watching wield a disproportionate amount of influence. This is the time where the parameters of the campaign debate are established. This is the time in a campaign when people decide that George Bush isn’t smart, or that Al Gore doesn’t tell the truth. By the time the voters start paying attention to the campaign, those early impressions are established as fact.”

Mindful of that, Davis has staged a series of high-profile appearances, attacking Simon almost daily for his opposition to legalized abortion and boasting about his record on issues ranging from health care to highway construction. Along the way, Davis has suffered a few bumps of his own. Over the last week, he has been assailed by the California Teachers Assn., a powerful political ally, over education funding and for refusing to make textbook selection a part of teachers’ contract negotiations.

Last month, Davis blew up during a meeting with the editorial board of the San Diego Union Tribune, extolling himself for keeping the lights burning during last year’s electricity crisis and complaining “I don’t get squat” in return.

“It shows that you scratch him a little bit and it doesn’t take much to set him off,” said Ken Khachigian, a longtime Republican strategist. “Therein lies a lesson for Bill Simon.”

Simon Has Targeted Conservative Audiences

Ever since winning the primary, Simon has maintained a strikingly low profile, avoiding reporters and speaking mostly to small, sympathetic groups. During his three-day Washington swing, for instance, he made only a single public appearance, a brief news conference in the driveway outside the White House after privately posing for a picture and discussing his campaign with Bush. A good part of his time in the capital was spent meeting with conservative pundits and policy analysts who already support his campaign.

Similarly, Simon has done much of his post-primary campaigning on conservative talk radio, reiterating positions such as support for a cut in the capital gains tax and the construction of private toll roads, which may reinforce his backing among Davis-haters but seem unlikely to expand his support to a wider, more centrist audience. “That’s primary rhetoric,” said the GOP strategist in Sacramento. “There’s no sign of them trying to broaden Simon’s appeal.”

But to Sal Russo, chief strategist for the Simon campaign, all the second-guessing and hand-wringing have a familiar--and hollow--ring. After all, many of the complaints about failing to reach out, to more aggressively attack his opponent on television and to abandon a strict adherence to conservative orthodoxy were voiced in Simon’s race against the front-running Riordan.

“It’s just like the primary,” Russo said. “Everybody said back in September, ‘Gee, you ought to be on TV.’ In October, November, December, ‘TV, TV, TV.’ . . . But we waited until we thought we would get voters’ attention. And, my God, we won by 20 points.”