Odds Are Against Kent, Floyd Donning Dodger Blue

Some words of caution for Dodger fans expecting the team to sign free-agent sluggers Jeff Kent or Cliff Floyd to fill the void created by last week’s trade of first baseman Eric Karros to the Chicago Cubs: Don’t get your hopes up.

According to a baseball source, the Dodgers have all but ruled out Kent, the San Francisco second baseman who would be willing to play first base and is looking for a lucrative multiyear deal, and unless the Dodgers make another move to free up more payroll, Floyd, the Boston outfielder who can also play first base, is probably out of their financial reach.

The fact that both players were offered arbitration by their respective teams, forcing the Dodgers to forfeit a first-round draft pick if they signed one of them, is another deterrent.

“Realistically, it’s not likely that one of those two guys will sign with us, but I won’t rule it out completely,” Dodger General Manager Dan Evans said. “It’s still too early in the off-season to figure out who is available and what our options are.”

Those options increased when right fielder Shawn Green told Evans he would be willing to move to first base -- Evans can now explore outfielders in the free-agent and trade markets.

But a shift from outfield to first would be radical for Green, and the Dodgers won’t make such a move without lengthy deliberation.

A glance down the freeway reveals the potential hazards. Darin Erstad moved from the outfield to first base after the Angels traded J.T. Snow to the Giants before the 1997 season, and while Erstad quickly developed into an above-average defender, it came at a steep price.

Having to crouch with his glove near the dirt for every pitch took a toll on Erstad’s lower back and hamstrings, and he developed a sore shoulder after changing his mechanics to make the across-the-body double-play throw to second.

Asking the team’s best hitter to learn a demanding position could also affect Green offensively, so Evans’ preference as he prepares for this weekend’s winter meetings in Nashville is to add a first baseman.

The trade of Karros and second baseman Mark Grudzielanek to the Cubs for backup catcher Todd Hundley gave the Dodgers some payroll flexibility, freeing about $4 million for 2003.

But Dodger projections still leave them so close to the $117-million payroll threshold for the new luxury tax, they have budgeted only $5 million to spend on a bat and a left-handed reliever.

That will make it almost impossible for the Dodgers to sign Kent or Floyd, who are expected to command deals of about $7 million a year or higher.

There was some speculation the Dodgers could add Kent or Floyd with some creative financing, signing either to a contract that would start with a low base salary, say $4 million in 2003, and jump drastically in 2004 and 2005, when the Dodgers would have more payroll flexibility.

But luxury tax figures are based on the average annual value of contracts, not base salaries in any given year, so if the Dodgers wanted to sign Kent or Floyd to a three-year, $24-million deal that paid only $4 million the first year, they would still be charged $8 million toward the luxury tax threshold in 2003.