Uncertainty ahead; industry proceeds with caution

Record executives are combing high schools and college towns looking for the next Avril Lavigne or John Mayer, hoping that interest in singer-songwriters doesn’t wane before they can get their albums out.

Radio programmers are trying to avoid being caught with songs that have outstayed their welcome, a time period that seems to be getting ever shorter.

And record-store buying supervisors are looking for, well, anything. As one put it, “A good trend would be people coming into the stores instead of downloading.”

It’s a time of wishing and hoping and praying in the music biz, a time of transition, and a time when it’s hard to get experts to give predictions about what’s on the horizon.

“The theme for the first part of the year will be, ‘What is the new world order of rock?’ ” says Bob Bell, senior pop buyer for the Wherehouse chain.

“There will be new albums from Linkin Park, Staind, Limp Bizkit and Deftones, bands that have been huge in recent years, and it will be interesting to see if the Strokes and the White Stripes have stolen their thunder,” he said “And with Metallica, it may be the old guard that rules.”

Country music is looking hopefully to fresh faces, with the big guns (Shania Twain, Faith Hill, Tim McGraw and the Dixie Chicks) having released their new albums in the past few months.

“Country is changing,” says Tonya Campos, music director of L.A. country station KZLA-FM (93.9). “Not enough time has gone by for it to develop into the next thing it’s going to change into. Who knows? With listeners and programmers, it’s about the song right now, not about the name. Even with Faith and Shania and Tim, the first songs that came out did not test well.”

And hip-hop and R&B;?

“What we’re seeing is, with so much product in the market, the turnover is very high,” says Dorsey Fuller, music director of L.A. urban station KKBT-FM (100.3). There “used to be a longer shelf life for most records. Now we find we have to expose the flavor-of-the-day record until the new flavor comes in, and the turnover is a lot quicker than it used to be.”

There’s even cross-genre experimentation going on. KZLA has had surprise success with the Kid Rock-Sheryl Crow duet “Picture,” while at hip-hop KPWR-FM (105.9), music director E Man reports tremendous interest in rhythmic tracks from pop acts (JC Chasez of ‘N Sync) and rock bands (Linkin Park, Limp Bizkit).

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Handicapping the new releases

When asked to gaze into crystal balls and pick the most-anticipated new releases for 2003, radio and retail representatives were tentative at best with their selections. With their help, though, we’ve handicapped the races for the first months of the new year.

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Rock

Win -- Linkin Park, title to be announced, due March 25. The L.A. band’s debut was the biggest-selling album of 2001.

Place -- Metallica, title TBA, tentatively due in June. Inside word is the veteran band’s new music is its rawest yet.

Show -- Limp Bizkit, title and release date TBA. A lot of mystery surrounds this, from how the band will compensate for the loss of guitarist Wes Borland to the musical direction (rock versus hip-hop). “I think everyone wants to see what Fred [Durst] will do next,” says Lisa Worden, music director of KROQ-FM (106.7).

Worth watching -- AFI, Staind, Rancid, Deftones, White Stripes, Strokes, Mars Volta, Zwan.

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Pop

Win -- Beyonce Knowles, “Dangerously in Love,” Feb. 11. Producers for the debut from the Destiny’s Child star include the Neptunes, Missy Elliott and Timbaland.

Place -- JC Chasez, title and release TBA. The initial success of Justin Timberlake’s debut solo break from the Backstreet Boys is a good omen for this ‘N Sync-er’s solo foray. Tentative plans are for Chasez to finish the album in March. His Dallas Austin-produced single, “Blowin Me Up (With Her Love)” from the “Drumline” soundtrack, is off to a strong start.

Show -- Celine Dion, “A New Day,” March. Max Martin, Peer Anstrom, Rick Wake and Umberto Gatica have all been producing tracks for the collection, which is expected to be released in conjunction with the opening of Dion’s concert production in Las Vegas.

Worth watching -- Madonna, Robbie Williams, Ricky Martin, Lauryn Hill.

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Hip-hop

Win -- 50 Cent, “Get Rich or Die Trying,” TBA.

Place -- Fabolos, “Street Dreams,” March 25.

Show -- Ashanti, title and release TBA. Ubiquitous in 2002, the singer will record a new album in early 2003.

Worth watching -- Ice Cube, newly signed to former N.W.A partner Dr. Dre’s Aftermath label.

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R&B;

Win -- Beyonce Knowles

Place -- R. Kelly, “Chocolate Factory,” Jan. 28. With the crooner still facing child pornography charges in Chicago, there are many uncertainties about his public support and his availability to perform and promote the album. But the curiosity factor is very high.

Show -- Mary J. Blige, title TBA, June. Reunites the singer with executive producer Sean “P. Diddy” Combs.

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Country

Win -- Aaron Lines, “Living Out Loud,” Jan. 7. With the focus on new artists, this Canadian rookie is turning heads with a great voice showcased on the country Top 10 single “You Can’t Hide Beautiful.”

Place -- Carolyn Dawn Johnson, title and release TBA. Another Canadian, Johnson earned the Academy of Country Music best new female talent award for her 2001 debut, “A Room With a View.”

Show -- Brad Paisley, title and release TBA. The West Virginian is ready to step into country’s top ranks.