This Time, Finish the Job

The Bush administration has not decided what to do about Iraq, but if it does act to remove Saddam Hussein from power, it would use all means, including a full-scale war if absolutely necessary.

Russian President Vladimir V. Putin says that he supports the war against Islamic terrorism but opposes war against Iraq. The Russian Foreign Ministry, however, rejects Iraqi requests for the unconditional removal of sanctions, insisting that Iraq must submit to “serious” U.N. inspections to uncover and destroy its weapons of mass destruction.

The U.S. State Department is trying to reach an understanding with Putin’s negotiators to define U.N. inspection procedures that could finally eliminate the threat. If these talks are successful, the U.S. and Russia would present the plan to the U.N. Security Council for a vote.

At least some key U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Colin Powell, would welcome this peaceful solution. Just as welcome is the opportunity to cooperate with Russia in a tangible way.

Other key U.S. officials, including the Pentagon’s civilian leaders, do not oppose the U.S.-Russia talks, but they view the Iraq problem as Hussein’s rule in itself, not just his weapons of mass destruction. They see Hussein as motivated by dreams of revenge against the United States and therefore believe that it would be highly irresponsible to leave him free to act when it suits him. These officials hope that if agreement is reached on U.N. inspection procedures, Hussein will refuse to accept them, thus triggering a new crisis that would make it easier to justify an attack against him.

President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney have not stated a position, but their preferences are reflected by National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, who leans toward the Pentagon’s position.

In the meantime, the media have been reporting a wide-ranging debate within the administration on how to remove Hussein from power. The CIA is said to favor a coup by Iraqi military officers, organized by former generals who have fled Iraq. This option is the easiest to attempt because it requires neither diplomatic nor military preparations, let alone U.S. forces.

Pentagon civilians predictably favor a repeat of the Afghanistan formula: the combined use of small teams of Special Forces and extensive precision bombing to motivate, supply, lead and support Kurdish militias operating from “Free Kurdistan” and Iraqi opposition volunteers based in Kuwait and possibly Jordan.

The Pentagon’s military chiefs and their staffs, by contrast, insist that Hussein’s armored forces cannot be defeated by lightly armed militias and volunteers. In their view, only a substantial army--200,000 troops have been mentioned--could do the job, operating from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and with heavy air support. This “real war” option may be the only reliable way of defeating Hussein, but it also reflects classic bureaucratic perspectives. Having played no role in the 1999 Kosovo war and only a minor one in Afghanistan, the regular Army and Marines cannot afford to sit out another war.

In any case, the White House need not choose even if it does commit to decisive action. The three options are not mutually exclusive; in fact, they fall into a logical sequence. Accordingly, the CIA has been ordered to go full speed ahead with its coup plan. If it succeeds, no further action would be needed. But the CIA also has been ordered to send operatives to Kurdistan to pave the way for the Afghan option, and the CIA is collaborating in the intelligence preparation for the real war option.

The U.S. Special Operations Command has been ordered to plan and prepare for an Afghanistan-style campaign, while continuing to provide its normal staff support for a real war option. The Air Force and Navy have been directed and funded to acquire the weapons needed for a full-scale air bombardment campaign.

Unless CIA coup plans succeed, much diplomatic preparation would be needed to secure allied support and access to bases in the essential countries: at the very least Turkey, Kuwait and possibly Jordan for the Afghan option; Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states as well for the real war option. The leaders of those countries already have publicly opposed a war against Iraq. But the Bush White House is highly confident that if it does decide to eliminate Hussein, it will have the cooperation of the essential countries.

It is not yet certain that anything will happen. The CIA’s track record in mounting covert operations is far from impressive, while the fighting options could be stopped cold if Iraq accepts U.N. inspection. But one thing is certain: If the administration does launch an attack to remove Hussein, it will persist until it succeeds, even if it takes a full-scale war.