Humbled in Victory, Davis Tries New Tack

After a chastening reelection in which voters rebuked his tenure and campaign, Gov. Gray Davis on Wednesday called his victory “an honor and a humbling experience” and pledged to work in a spirit of bipartisanship during his second term.

At a midmorning news conference at a Century City hotel, where Democrats on Tuesday night celebrated their potential sweep of statewide offices, Davis promised to be a “governor for all the people, whether they voted for me or not.”

“I do want to lead this state to a better place than where I found it,” he said. For his part, Simon remained out of public view Wednesday, as he visited supporters and thanked them for their efforts.

The governor, who beat GOP challenger Bill Simon Jr. just 47.4% to 42.4% in Tuesday’s election, did not appear shaken by the close results, which followed weeks of predictions by his advisors that he would soundly defeat the Republican gubernatorial nominee.

But Davis’ slim margin of victory in an election with a record low turnout underscored a deep discontent within the California electorate. Three out of five voters said they have an unfavorable impression of the man they sent back to the governor’s office, according to an exit poll conducted by The Times. Slightly more than a third said their main reason for voting for him was merely to pick the best of a bad lot of candidates. One in 10 voters cast a ballot for a third-party candidate -- three times as many as did so four years ago.

Many Californians, voting officials said, simply didn’t bother to go to the polls Tuesday. With about 500,000 absentee and provisional ballots still uncounted, the secretary of state’s office estimated the final voter turnout at 50% to 53% -- substantially lower than the record low of 58% in 1998.

“Unfortunately, the voters spoke with silence this year,” said Beth Miller, chief assistant secretary of state.

Electorate Split

Despite voter frustration with the nasty tone of the campaign and a slew of Republican victories across the country, the 2002 elections showed anew that California’s electorate is split down the spine of the state. Davis captured the strip of counties along the state’s coast that is home to its urban centers; 14 of the 18 counties that Davis won abut either the Pacific Ocean or San Francisco Bay.

Simon, in contrast, won the inland counties from the northern reaches of the state to San Bernardino and Riverside; he also won chunks of the coastline, including the counties of San Diego, Orange, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo.

“There was a huge Republican prairie fire coming out this way, and we kind of braked it, right at the Sierra Nevada,” said Davis political strategist Garry South, referring to the GOP gains elsewhere in the country.

In California, by contrast, voters handed Democrats a potential takeover of statewide offices. Incumbent Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante beat GOP challenger Bruce McPherson, 49.5% to 41.7%. Kevin Shelley overcame Keith Olberg for secretary of state, 46.3% to 42.3%. Incumbent Phil Angelides held on to his job of state treasurer with 49.4% of the vote; challenger Phillip Gregory Conlon garnered 40.5%. Similarly, Atty. Gen. Bill Lockyer won reelection over Dick Ackerman, 51.4% to 40.3%.

Onetime Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi recaptured his old office, beating GOP hopeful Gary Mendoza, 46.6% to 41.6%. And in the nonpartisan race for superintendent of public instruction, Democrat Jack O’Connell trounced Republican Katherine Smith, 61.8% to 38.2%.

The only statewide race that remained up in the air Wednesday was the contest for state controller, where Democrat Steve Westly held a slight 26,000-vote lead over Republican Tom McClintock. Officials at the secretary of state’s office said the results would not be complete until the end of the week, at the earliest, when the outstanding ballots are due to be processed.

Despite the Democratic domination, GOP leaders refused to concede that the losses meant their party is troubled. They noted the close returns in many contests and the apparent gain of a few seats in the state Legislature.

“This is a great election for California Republicans,” said Senate Republican leader Jim Brulte. “Gray Davis won by five points. Most governors win reelection by a landslide.”

The difference between Davis’ 20-point romp over Republican Dan Lungren in 1998, and his squeaker this year was evident across the state. The governor won 1.7 million fewer votes Tuesday than he did four years ago, a stark verdict that will probably not change markedly, once the final votes are counted.

In many counties, Davis’ share of the electorate dropped 10 points or more from 1998. This year, many of those votes went to Simon in conservative areas, but moderate and liberal voters switched their allegiance to the Green Party candidate, Peter Camejo.

In San Bernardino, for example, Davis pulled 53% of the vote in 1998 and only 41% on Tuesday. Simon won 50%, seven points more than Lungren had. In Sacramento County, Davis’ share of the vote fell from 57% to 42%, and Simon gained six points over Lungren.

In Alameda County, one of the state’s Democratic strongholds and a place where Davis overwhelmed Lungren 73% to 23%, the governor beat Simon 62% to 22%. Camejo won 11% of the vote, substantially more than the 1.8% that Dan Hamburg, his predecessor as Green Party nominee, received in 1998. In San Francisco, Camejo captured second place over Simon with 16% of the vote, and Davis’ share of the electorate dropped from 80% in 1998 to 66% Tuesday.

Davis insisted that his victory -- no matter how narrow -- was a vindication for his administration during a year when voters rejected both incumbent governors and Democrats in other parts of the country.

“There were at least 15 changes in statehouses across the country, from one party to another,” Davis told reporters. “When people are feeling some angst, they make changes. That’s why I’m so proud that the Democratic ticket held strong. The people were still willing to put their faith in us.”

He praised California Democrats for withstanding “a national tide” of Republican victory and credited President Bush with steering the GOP to its historic midterm victory in congressional races.

“I have to give credit where credit is due,” the governor said.

Davis’ campaign aides, brought to the defensive by the tight victory, said focusing on the margin misses the larger significance of the potential Democratic sweep in statewide races.

“I just don’t see it as a hobbled mandate,” one senior Davis aide said. “I see it as an empowering mandate, particularly in regards to where the rest of the country is.”

South attributed the margin to a low Democratic turnout, a phenomenon in a number of states where Democrats were defeated Tuesday.

No Real Message

“Democrats, for some strange reason, didn’t go out and vote in the force that we thought they would,” South said. “My only theory is, I don’t think the national Democrats had a real message in this campaign. You had people running for the Senate out there saying, ‘I support Bush on Iraq, I support the tax cut. I support the president on this.’ Well, OK, why not just elect a Republican?”

Davis may be required to govern differently in his second term, political analysts said, especially as he approaches the state’s looming budget shortfall. But Davis has served in public office for decades, making it hard for some to imagine how he will change now. On Wednesday, he gave few clues: He alluded, for instance, to the budget problems, but would not detail how he intends to address them.

Republicans said the weak affirmation for Davis’ second term signals a strong dissatisfaction with the incumbent governor that could have been exploited by a stronger challenger. Given the circumstances, Simon’s defeat was destined to inspire a traditional postelection round of consternation about the party’s future direction.

“It is so obvious that simply an adequate, not a brilliant, campaign would have prevailed against Davis,” said a GOP consultant, Arnold Steinberg.

Some party leaders predicted the close returns would energize the state GOP, which has been riven by in-fighting and ideological differences. In two years, California Republicans will be ready to mount a serious effort for President Bush’s reelection, said Duf Sundheim, head of the Lincoln Club of Northern California.

“We just weren’t there this time,” Sundheim said. “That’s just the reality.... It was kind of like, you’re working on a ship when the war starts, and the ship is just three-quarters of the way finished.”

However, in a sign of the internal feuding that surfaced regularly in the campaign, state GOP Chairman Shawn Steel blasted other party leaders for failing to raise more money for the Republican ticket, criticizing what he called an “anti-conservative” attitude among Bush’s surrogates in California.

“The ticket was ideal,” he said. “We just needed a better ground game. One of the great tragedies in this election was our ground game was anemic compared to the Democrats’.”

But Rob Stutzman, the Republican consultant who serves as spokesman for the state party, said he “couldn’t disagree more” with Steel’s remarks.

“We begin today working not to tear each other down, but to build a party that can deliver the state for the president in 2004,” he said. “That’s what I believe most party leaders are committed to.”

Both parties will have to make significant efforts to engage the electorate before that race. Voters surveyed Tuesday expressed disgust with their options in this year’s contest, with overwhelmingly negative views of both major party candidates, according to The Times exit poll.

When asked which candidate would do a better job on bread-and-butter issues like education, energy and crime, between a quarter and a third of voters said “neither.”

The electorate was dramatically different from the one that elected Davis in 1998, with whites making up three-quarters of the voters, up from 64% four years ago. The share of Latino voters dropped from 13% to 10%, and blacks from 13% to just 4%. Asian turnout fell slightly, from 8% of voters to 6%. Those numbers suggest that Democrats failed to energize much of the party’s minority base.

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Times exit poll results

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Statewide vote for governor+

Davis 47%

Simon 42%

Others 11%

Prop. 49+ (Before- and after-school programs)

Yes 57%

No 43%

Prop. 52+ (Election day voter registration)

No 59%

Yes 41%

+Percentages above are from actual returns. Uncounted absentee and provisional ballots are not included.

*

Q: When decided vote for governor

Before last weekend:

Percentage of all voters -- 82%

Gray Davis -- 48%

Bill Simon -- 43%

Others -- 9%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 56%

No -- 44%

Prop 52

Yes -- 39%

No -- 61%

Last weekend or later:

Percentage of all voters -- 18%

Gray Davis -- 41%

Bill Simon -- 39%

Others -- 20%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 60%

No -- 40%

Prop 52

Yes -- 40%

No -- 60%

*

Gender

Female:

Percentage of all voters -- 51%

Gray Davis -- 52%

Bill Simon -- 37%

Others -- 11%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 59%

No -- 41%

Prop 52

Yes -- 42%

No -- 58%

Male:

Percentage of all voters -- 49%

Gray Davis -- 42%

Bill Simon -- 47%

Others -- 11%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 54%

No -- 46%

Prop 52

Yes -- 37%

No -- 63%

*

Race/Ethnicity

White:

Percentage of all voters -- 76%

Gray Davis -- 43%

Bill Simon -- 46%

Others -- 11%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 53%

No -- 47%

Prop 52

Yes -- 35%

No -- 65%

Latino:

Percentage of all voters -- 10%

Gray Davis -- 65%

Bill Simon -- 24%

Others -- 11%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 78%

No -- 22%

Prop 52

Yes -- 65%

No -- 35%

Asian:

Percentage of all voters -- 6%

Gray Davis -- 54%

Bill Simon -- 37%

Others -- 9%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 62%

No -- 38%

Prop 52

Yes -- 51%

No -- 49%

Black:

Percentage of all voters -- 4%

Gray Davis -- 79%

Bill Simon -- 10%

Others -- 11%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 67%

No -- 33%

Prop 52

Yes -- 53%

No -- 47%

*

Gender/Race/Ethnicity

White Men:

Percentage of all voters -- 37%

Gray Davis -- 39%

Bill Simon -- 50%

Others -- 11%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 51%

No -- 49%

Prop 52

Yes -- 33%

No -- 67%

White Women:

Percentage of all voters -- 39%

Gray Davis -- 47%

Bill Simon -- 42%

Others -- 11%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 55%

No -- 45%

Prop 52

Yes -- 37%

No -- 63%

Minority Men:

Percentage of all voters -- 12%

Gray Davis -- 53%

Bill Simon -- 36%

Others -- 11%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 66%

No -- 34%

Prop 52

Yes -- 53%

No -- 47%

Minority Women:

Percentage of all voters -- 12%

Gray Davis -- 67%

Bill Simon -- 21%

Others -- 12%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 73%

No -- 27%

Prop 52

Yes -- 59%

No -- 41%

*

Age

18-29:

Percentage of all voters -- 11%

Gray Davis -- 45%

Bill Simon -- 39%

Others -- 16%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 65%

No -- 35%

Prop 52

Yes -- 48%

No -- 52%

30-44:

Percentage of all voters -- 25%

Gray Davis -- 46%

Bill Simon -- 39%

Others -- 15%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 62%

No -- 38%

Prop 52

Yes -- 44%

No -- 56%

45-64:

Percentage of all voters -- 40%

Gray Davis -- 48%

Bill Simon -- 41%

Others -- 11%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 54%

No -- 46%

Prop 52

Yes -- 38%

No -- 62%

65 and older:

Percentage of all voters -- 24%

Gray Davis -- 46%

Bill Simon -- 49%

Others -- 5%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 51%

No -- 49%

Prop 52

Yes -- 31%

No -- 69%

*

Union affiliation

Union members:

Percentage of all voters -- 17%

Gray Davis -- 57%

Bill Simon -- 32%

Others -- 11%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 57%

No -- 43%

Prop 52

Yes -- 43%

No -- 57%

Someone else in household is union member:

Percentage of all voters -- 11%

Gray Davis -- 50%

Bill Simon -- 38%

Others -- 12%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 64%

No -- 36%

Prop 52

Yes -- 43%

No -- 57%

No one in household is union member:

Percentage of all voters -- 72%

Gray Davis -- 44%

Bill Simon -- 45%

Others -- 11%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 55%

No -- 45%

Prop 52

Yes -- 38%

No -- 62%

*

Party registration

Democrats:

Percentage of all voters -- 46%

Gray Davis -- 81%

Bill Simon -- 10%

Others -- 9%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 64%

No -- 36%

Prop 52

Yes -- 54%

No -- 46%

Independents:

Percentage of all voters -- 10%

Gray Davis -- 39%

Bill Simon -- 38%

Others -- 23%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 55%

No -- 45%

Prop 52

Yes -- 36%

No -- 64%

Republicans:

Percentage of all voters -- 40%

Gray Davis -- 12%

Bill Simon -- 82%

Others -- 6%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 50%

No -- 50%

Prop 52

Yes -- 23%

No -- 77%

*

Political ideology

Liberals:

Percentage of all voters -- 35%

Gray Davis -- 74%

Bill Simon -- 10%

Others -- 16%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 61%

No -- 39%

Prop 52

Yes -- 56%

No -- 44%

Moderates:

Percentage of all voters -- 30%

Gray Davis -- 52%

Bill Simon -- 37%

Others -- 11%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 61%

No -- 39%

Prop 52

Yes -- 39%

No -- 61%

Conservatives:

Percentage of all voters -- 35%

Gray Davis -- 15%

Bill Simon -- 78%

Others -- 7%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 50%

No -- 50%

Prop 52

Yes -- 23%

No -- 77%

*

Ideology/party

Liberal Democrats:

Percentage of all voters -- 27%

Gray Davis -- 83%

Bill Simon -- 5%

Others -- 12%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 62%

No -- 38%

Prop 52

Yes -- 57%

No -- 43%

Moderate Democrats:

Percentage of all voters -- 19%

Gray Davis -- 78%

Bill Simon -- 16%

Others -- 6%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 66%

No -- 34%

Prop 52

Yes -- 49%

No -- 51%

Moderate Independents:

Percentage of all voters -- 7%

Gray Davis -- 50%

Bill Simon -- 27%

Others -- 23%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 53%

No -- 47%

Prop 52

Yes -- 40

No -- 60%

Moderate Republicans:

Percentage of all voters -- 13%

Gray Davis -- 25%

Bill Simon -- 67%

Others -- 8%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 57%

No -- 43%

Prop 52

Yes -- 35%

No -- 65%

Conservative Republicans:

Percentage of all voters -- 27%

Gray Davis -- 5%

Bill Simon -- 90%

Others -- 5%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 46%

No -- 54%

Prop 52

Yes -- 18%

No -- 82%

*

Education

High school diploma or less:

Percentage of all voters -- 18%

Gray Davis -- 52%

Bill Simon -- 39%

Others -- 9%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 66%

No -- 34%

Prop 52

Yes -- 48%

No -- 52%

Some college:

Percentage of all voters -- 24%

Gray Davis -- 43%

Bill Simon -- 47%

Others -- 10%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 59%

No -- 41%

Prop 52

Yes -- 38%

No -- 62%

College degree or more:

Percentage of all voters -- 58%

Gray Davis -- 47%

Bill Simon -- 41%

Others -- 12%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 53%

No -- 47%

Prop 52

Yes -- 37%

No -- 63%

*

Annual family income

Less than $40,000:

Percentage of all voters -- 24%

Gray Davis -- 55%

Bill Simon -- 33%

Others -- 12%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 64%

No -- 36%

Prop 52

Yes -- 50%

No -- 50%

$40,000 to $59,999:

Percentage of all voters -- 19%

Gray Davis -- 52%

Bill Simon -- 38%

Others -- 10%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 58%

No -- 42%

Prop 52

Yes -- 41%

No -- 59%

$60,000 to $100,000:

Percentage of all voters -- 32%

Gray Davis -- 43%

Bill Simon -- 45%

Others -- 12%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 55%

No -- 45%

Prop 52

Yes -- 37%

No -- 63%

More than $100,000:

Percentage of all voters -- 25%

Gray Davis -- 42%

Bill Simon -- 47%

Others -- 11%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 53%

No -- 47%

Prop 52

Yes -- 33%

No -- 67%

*

By region

Los Angeles County:

Percentage of all voters -- 23%

Gray Davis -- 54%

Bill Simon -- 36%

Others -- 10%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 65%

No -- 35%

Prop 52

Yes -- 46%

No -- 54%

Rest of Southern California:

Percentage of all voters -- 33%

Gray Davis -- 39%

Bill Simon -- 52%

Others -- 9%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 58%

No -- 42%

Prop 52

Yes -- 35%

No -- 65%

Bay Area:

Percentage of all voters -- 14%

Gray Davis -- 60%

Bill Simon -- 25%

Others -- 15%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 48%

No -- 52%

Prop 52

Yes -- 44%

No -- 56%

Rest of Northern California:

Percentage of all voters -- 30%

Gray Davis -- 44%

Bill Simon -- 43%

Others -- 13%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 55%

No -- 45%

Prop 52

Yes -- 38%

No -- 62%

*

Religion

Non-Catholic Christians:

Percentage of all voters -- 46%

Gray Davis -- 35%

Bill Simon -- 55%

Others -- 10%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 56%

No -- 44%

Prop 52

Yes -- 32%

No -- 68%

Catholics:

Percentage of all voters -- 25%

Gray Davis -- 53%

Bill Simon -- 39%

Others -- 8%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 61%

No -- 39%

Prop 52

Yes -- 45%

No -- 55%

Jews:

Percentage of all voters -- 4%

Gray Davis -- 69%

Bill Simon -- 22%

Others -- 9%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 53%

No -- 47%

Prop 52

Yes -- 49%

No -- 51%

*

Marital status

Married:

Percentage of all voters -- 63%

Gray Davis -- 43%

Bill Simon -- 47%

Others -- 10%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 54%

No -- 46%

Prop 52

Yes -- 35%

No -- 65%

Single:

Percentage of all voters -- 31%

Gray Davis -- 53%

Bill Simon -- 33%

Others -- 14%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 62%

No -- 38%

Prop 52

Yes -- 34%

No -- 66%

Widowed:

Percentage of all voters -- 6%

Gray Davis -- 56%

Bill Simon -- 38%

Others -- 6%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 55%

No -- 45%

Prop 52

Yes -- 34%

No -- 66%

*

Sexual orientation

Not gay or lesbian:

Percentage of all voters -- 96%

Gray Davis -- 46%

Bill Simon -- 43%

Others -- 11%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 57%

No -- 43%

Prop 52

Yes -- 39%

No -- 61%

Gay or lesbian:

Percentage of all voters -- 4%

Gray Davis -- 69%

Bill Simon -- 10%

Others -- 21%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 56%

No -- 44%

Prop 52

Yes -- 49%

No -- 51%

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Things in California are ...

Going in the right direction:

Percentage of all voters -- 49%

Gray Davis -- 79%

Bill Simon -- 15%

Others -- 6%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 65%

No -- 35%

Prop 52

Yes -- 51%

No -- 49%

Seriously off on the wrong track:

Percentage of all voters -- 51%

Gray Davis -- 17%

Bill Simon -- 68%

Others -- 15%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 49%

No -- 51%

Prop 52

Yes -- 28%

No -- 72%

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California’s economy is doing

Well:

Percentage of all voters -- 53%

Gray Davis -- 58%

Bill Simon -- 34%

Others -- 8%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 62%

No -- 38%

Prop 52

Yes -- 43%

No -- 57%

Badly:

Percentage of all voters -- 47%

Gray Davis -- 36%

Bill Simon -- 50%

Others -- 14%

Prop. 49

Yes -- 52%

No -- 48%

Prop 52

Yes -- 35%

No -- 65%

*

Note: Numbers may not total 100% where some voter groups are not shown.

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How the poll was conducted: The Times Poll interviewed 3,444 voters as they left 60 polling places across California during voting hours Tuesday. Precincts were chosen based on the pattern of turnout in past statewide elections. The survey was by a confidential, self-administered questionnaire in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error for percentages based on the entire sample is plus or minus 2 percentage points; for some subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Because the survey does not include absentee voters or those who declined to participate when approached, actual returns and demographic estimates by the interviewers were used to adjust the sample slightly. Interviews at the precinct level were conducted by Davis Research of Calabasas.

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Times poll results are also available at www.latimes.com/timespoll

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Times staff writers Mark Barabak and Dan Morain contributed to this report.