Political Reality Television

The Iraq war may barely be over, but ABC News is doing its part to focus Americans’ attention back on the No. 1 domestic issue. Not taxes. Not unemployment. For ABC, it turns out, the real question is something else -- who’s going to run against George W. Bush in 2004?

On May 3, a full 18 months before the presidential election, the television network will stage a prime-time debate in South Carolina between the nine Democratic presidential candidates, moderated by George Stephanopoulos, the Bill Clinton acolyte-turned-critic and now a Sunday morning news host. For political junkies, the 90-minute debate will seem to come and go as quickly as the Iraq war. Each candidate will have no more than 10 minutes to explain why he should replace the commander in chief. But the danger for ABC is that in a country that invented Kwik-Tix, 90 minutes will seem like an eternity for most viewers.

Will Stephanopoulos try to spice up his debut as debate host by turning it into a kind of reality show? He could, for instance, ask Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.) what his greatest fear is and make him confront it. Or, in the spirit of former Clinton paramour Monica Lewinsky’s new show “Mr. Personality,” Stephanopoulos could make all the candidates don masks and tuxedoes and see whose ideas the audience likes best.

For the candidates, of course, it’s no joking matter. Not only is the debate coming fast and early, but so are the primaries. The 2004 campaign will begin as usual in late January in Iowa and New Hampshire. But after that, everything will be out of kilter for the candidates. It used to be that a candidate could stumble early on, then recover, as Bush did in New Hampshire in 2000 against Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). Now, none of the candidates know what early defeat or victory will mean.

Candidates will have to campaign fast and furious in every part of the country, appealing to each part of the base. On Feb. 3, South Carolina, Delaware, New Mexico, Arizona, Missouri and possibly Oklahoma will hold primaries. Michigan’s is a scant four days later. Maine, Virginia, Wisconsin, Idaho and Utah lead up to the big first Tuesday in March. That’s when 12 states, including California, New York and Maryland, will make or break candidacies.

All that awaits the nation next year. Next month, the debates begin, no doubt too soon for most Americans. The ABC debate will be televised at the beginning of May ratings sweeps. We can hope that the ratings for a presidential primary debate will outpace “Fear Factor” or Lewinsky’s “Mr. Personality.” But unless the Democrats can instill some fear or personality into their candidates, ABC had better not count on any ratings spikes.