It All Goes According to Schedule

By agreeing to play each other in next year’s Black Coaches Assn. Classic, USC and Virginia Tech are guaranteed a game against a traditionally strong nonconference opponent.

The season-opening matchup, formally announced Tuesday, is a marquee game for college football fans, but it does not ensure the Trojans or Hokies a boost in strength of schedule, which has become a major factor in the bowl championship series era.

Athletic administrators at both schools said it is difficult to accurately predict any opponent’s performance -- much less the performance of an opponent’s opponents -- over the course of a season.

“You can’t do all of your scheduling in conjunction with strength of schedule because you don’t know how people are going to be year to year,” said Jim Weaver, Virginia Tech’s athletic director.

USC fell victim to unpredictability this season.

The Trojans finished the regular season ranked No. 1 in the Associated Press media poll and the USA Today/ESPN coaches’ poll. However, strength of schedule calculated by BCS computers was a key factor in dropping them from second to third place in the final BCS standings.

Oklahoma (12-1) was routed by Kansas State in the Big 12 Conference championship game, but the Sooners remained first in the BCS standings because their schedule strength ranked a robust 11th nationally. Louisiana State (12-1) finished second in the BCS standings with a schedule ranked 29th. Oklahoma will play LSU in the BCS title game in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 4.

USC (11-1) played a schedule ranked 37th in strength, and finished only 0.16 of a point behind LSU in the BCS standings. The Trojans will play in the Rose Bowl against Michigan (10-2), which played a schedule ranked 14th and finished fourth in the BCS.

“We thought that we had the perfect schedule for this year,” said Daryl Gross, a senior associate athletic director at USC who handles football scheduling. “Including Washington State and Arizona State, we had ... at least five teams that were preseason top-25 teams. If those teams had played like they normally do, this would not be an issue. It just didn’t work out that way this season.”

USC’s nonconference schedule included games against Auburn -- regarded by some before the season as a contender for the national title -- Brigham Young, Hawaii and Notre Dame.

Auburn finished 7-5, hurting not only USC but also LSU, which played Auburn too. Brigham Young (4-8) and Notre Dame (5-7) also struggled, and Hawaii (8-5) ultimately sealed the Trojans’ sugarless bowl-game fate when it lost to Boise State in the final game of the regular season. (Of course, a week earlier, Hawaii had defeated Alabama, an LSU opponent, hurting the Tigers’ schedule strength and thus helping USC.)

Pacific 10 Conference teams also under-performed, with five teams finishing with overall records at .500 or worse.

“USC has historically played quality nonconference schedules,” BCS Coordinator Mike Tranghese said. “This year, they played Notre Dame and Auburn, and neither team performed up to their usual levels. As a result, that hurt USC.

“All [the BCS] can do is evaluate who people play and records.... I don’t know how you say, ‘They played two teams but they didn’t play as well as they normally do,’ and factor that in. The strength of schedule is something everyone has agreed to. I think remodeling it creates a whole new set of problems.”

USC wasn’t complaining about BCS formulas last season when the Trojans’ strength of schedule helped propel them into their first appearance in a BCS bowl game.

In 2002, the Trojans played nonconference games against Auburn, Colorado, Kansas State and Notre Dame, and all but two Pac-10 teams finished with winning records.

At the end of the season, USC’s strength of schedule was ranked No. 1 by the BCS computers. Despite losses to Kansas State and Washington State, the Trojans received a berth in the Orange Bowl and went on to rout Iowa.

Gross said the goal every year is to play the toughest schedule possible with the hope that its rating at the end of the season will be somewhere between the outcomes in 2002 and 2003.

“We want to have a schedule that ranks 1 to 25,” Gross said. “If you stay in that range, you can stumble but still keep moving toward a BCS bowl as long as you keep winning.”

To that end, adding Virginia Tech to next year’s schedule could, conceivably, help USC.

Victories in special games such as the BCA Classic cannot be counted toward the required nine wins necessary to qualify for a BCS bowl game. Pac-10 officials, however, are awaiting interpretation from their BCS counterparts in regard to how games such as the BCA Classic factor into strength of schedule.

The BCA Classic, which will be played at FedEx Field in Landover, Md., on Aug. 28, gives USC a 12-game schedule in 2004 when most teams will be playing only 11 regular-season games. The Trojans -- who are guaranteed $600,000 and could earn as much as $1 million for playing the BCA Classic -- also will play nonconference games at BYU on Sept. 4, at home against Colorado State on Sept. 11 and at home against Notre Dame on Nov. 27.

With Notre Dame annually on the schedule, Gross said, “I try to get one more big-time school and then have one that’s kind of a mid-major. That’s kind of the formula that we’ve always used.”

In 2005, USC will start a home-and-away series with Arkansas. The Trojans will probably play a mid-major opponent on what is still an open date the week before the game against the Razorbacks.

In 2006, the Trojans are scheduled to open the season at Arkansas and play host to Nebraska the next week. USC travels to Nebraska in 2007 after a home opener against Temple.

USC Coach Pete Carroll said he welcomed opportunities to play formidable opponents. Strength of schedule, he said, is the least of his concerns.

“We just like having big challenges,” he said.

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Times staff writer Lonnie White contributed to this report.

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Rankings Pulled

USC played four teams that were ranked in the Associated Press preseason poll. None finished in the final top 25:

*--* Opp. Preseason rnk Rec. Auburn No. 6 7-5 Washington No. 17 6-6 Notre Dame No. 20 5-7 Arizona St. No. 22 5-7

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*Received votes in preseason poll: Washington State (9-3), Oregon State (8-5).

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* Other USC opponents: BYU (4-8), Hawaii (8-5), California (7-6), Stanford (4-7), Arizona (2-10), UCLA (6-6).

2004 USC SCHEDULE

Aug. 28 ...vs. Virginia Tech*

Sept. 4 ...at BYU

Sept. 11 ...COLORADO STATE

Sept. 25 ...at Stanford

Oct. 9 ...CALIFORNIA

Oct. 16 ...ARIZONA STATE

Oct. 23 ...WASHINGTON

Oct. 30 ...at Washington State

Nov. 6 ...at Oregon State

Nov. 13 ...ARIZONA

Nov. 27 ...NOTRE DAME

Dec. 4 ... at UCLA

* -- BCA Classic at Landover, Md.