Decision Time Nears for Recall Campaign

As surrogates for Gov. Gray Davis urged a state appeals court Monday to stall the effort to oust him from office, potential successors confronted a rapidly accelerating political calendar that could force them to decide within days whether to join the unconventional campaign that now appears imminent.

With the prospects for the legal challenge uncertain, county registrars were rushing to complete their count of petition signatures submitted to them in recent weeks. The counties face a Wednesday deadline to verify those signatures and submit them to the secretary of state.

Potential candidates to replace Davis also face a deadline. Depending on how the next several days unfold, they might have to decide within days whether to run under the strange circumstances posed by the gubernatorial recall campaign.

Barring court intervention, Secretary of State Kevin Shelley could certify as soon as Thursday that sponsors of the petition for a recall election have gathered enough signatures to get the measure on the ballot.

Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante would have to set a date for the election to occur within 60 to 80 days of Shelley’s certification -- so, if the recall is certified this week, the election would have to occur no later than mid-October. As a practical matter, that means that candidates could have as little as one day to decide whether to run; they must file the required paperwork at least 59 days before the recall election.

Arnold Schwarzenegger, one of the Republicans weighing whether to run, plans to return today from a trip to France, Germany and Spain, where he has been promoting his latest “Terminator” sequel. His top political strategist, George Gorton, said that Schwarzenegger had not made a final decision, but that all signs point toward a run by the actor and former champion bodybuilder.

“I’m pretty darn sure he’s running,” Gorton said.

Two other Republicans pressed forward Monday with their own plans.

Bill Simon Jr., the GOP gubernatorial nominee who lost to Davis in November, posted a new speech on his Web site that blamed the Democratic governor for “some of the worst schools, worst roads, worst air quality, worst finances, worst job climate and worst corruption” of any state in America.

Simon has not announced whether he will run, but for months he has denounced Davis and promoted himself in speeches to Republican crowds around the state. His chief strategist, Sal Russo, said Simon “obviously appreciates that we may be looking at making a decision by Friday if Bustamante’s got a quick trigger.”

The only Republican in the race so far is Darrell Issa, a wealthy San Diego County congressman whose $1.5-million investment in the recall petition drive made it a serious threat to the governor’s political survival.

Issa unveiled his campaign Web site on Monday. Like Simon’s, it criticizes Davis for tripling the state’s vehicle license fee. Issa’s site features a calculator enabling visitors to estimate their “car tax” increase. Polls have found the increase was highly unpopular, suggesting it could be a key feature of the campaign against Davis, who has argued that it was crucial to resolving the state’s fiscal crisis.

For his part, Davis kept a low profile Monday; for the second day in a row, he made no public appearances. Instead, in a conference call with reporters, Davis denounced Republican proposals for sharp cuts in California’s public university systems.

But in court, lawyers for his campaign committee, Taxpayers Against the Governor’s Recall, echoed the main Davis arguments against the proposal to bounce him from office. Committee lawyers asked the 2nd District Court of Appeal in Los Angeles to reverse a lower court’s denial of their request to delay certification of the petitions for a special election pending court review of alleged fraud in the signature gathering.

In court papers, they warned that state and county elections officials could waste up to $40 million preparing for a special election that should not legally occur.

“Whether it comes from the blind or the disabled, nursing homes or medical clinics, school districts or law enforcement, it must come from somewhere, and the people of California will suffer as a result,” committee lawyer Paul R. Kiesel wrote.

Kiesel told the court that a delay would harm no one and could save taxpayers millions of dollars by enabling consolidation of the recall with the March 2004 presidential primary. Recall supporters prefer a fall election under the assumption that turnout would then tilt more heavily Republican.

“If ensuring that a sufficient number of qualified voters endorsed the recall of the governor delays the election, so be it,” Kiesel said. “That is a small price to pay to ensure the integrity of the recall election.”

The case was randomly assigned to a three-justice panel of Davis appointees: Candace D. Cooper, Paul Boland and Lawrence D. Rubin. Last year, those judges ruled that a voter recall drive targeting South Gate officials could go forward.

A tally by Shelley’s office on Monday indicated that Davis forces are quickly running out of time.

The secretary of state reported on his Web site that as of 2 p.m., county registrars had officially reported to his office that recall supporters had turned in 987,306 signatures -- well over the 897,158 needed, if the signatures are verified as those of registered voters.

They are likely to report hundreds of thousands more in the days ahead.

So far, the counties have verified 268,325 signatures as valid registered voters, and a Times survey of the counties found that they had received about 1.6 million.

Pursuant to court order, Shelley ordered them to complete validation of virtually all the signatures by Wednesday. If more than 986,858 signatures are valid -- a number that represents 110% of the minimum required -- Shelley will be required to certify that the recall has qualified for the ballot.

Times staff writers Jean Guccione and Allison Hoffman contributed to this report.