In or Out? Schwarzenegger Following a Familiar Script

During his long reign as Hollywood’s favorite action hero, Arnold Schwarzenegger was famous for what industry insiders called “The Arnold Sweepstakes.”

The movie muscle man reveled in putting Hollywood on hold -- making A-list producers, directors and writers wait until the last moment before deciding to go ahead with a project.

Suddenly, California politicians are getting a taste of that Hollywood waiting game. A string of potential candidates in the state’s Oct. 7 recall election are keeping crucial decisions on hold while Schwarzenegger -- perhaps relishing the sort of attention he enjoyed in his prime -- contemplates whether or not to make a run for governor.

The decision could come any time, but some of Schwarzenegger’s key political advisors, most of whom spoke on condition that they not be identified, are telling him to wait until as close as possible to the filing deadline -- 5 p.m. Aug. 9 -- before revealing his decision.

Said one strategist: “He gets the waiting thing.”

“The longer he waits to file and engage in this, the better off he is,” said the strategist, who has discussed the governor’s race with Schwarzenegger. “As soon as you get out there, the full weight of targeting and opposition research is then brought to bear.”

Stalling might also give big-name Democrats, such as U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, less time to reconsider their current position that they will not run to replace Davis.

Even though he ranked behind former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan as a recall candidate in recent polls, Schwarzenegger tilts the California political universe like no other candidate. He has an outsize public persona, a big bank account and the ability to draw media attention from around the world.

But the potential advantages of a delayed announcement are countered by considerable pressure from other quarters -- a wife who appears to want Schwarzenegger to stay out of the race and fellow Republicans who want an answer now, so they can make plans of their own.

Longtime Republican strategist Allan Hoffenblum said stalling could hurt other Republicans and the party’s attempt to retake the governor’s office, particularly if Schwarzenegger dallies, then opts not to run.

So far, the Republicans who publicly have said they will run are all from the party’s more conservative wing -- opponents of abortion and most gun control measures and advocates of major efforts to shrink the size of government.

Members of the party who consider themselves centrist are anxious to have some representation on the recall ballot. Schwarzenegger favors abortion rights and pushed a successful initiative to expand funding for after-school programs, although his positions on many other issues are not known.

A late entry into the race “is a good strategy only if he is going to run,” Hoffenblum said of Schwarzenegger. “To wait until Friday night [Aug. 8] and say he is not going to run would do a big disservice to a lot of moderate Republicans. They would not appreciate that at all.”

Among those who expect a decision from Schwarzenegger in “the next few days,” is Riordan, a friend of Schwarzenegger’s who also shares many of his political views. He has said he will consider running only if Schwarzenegger doesn’t.

Still, Schwarzenegger has been known to keep friends waiting before.

In Hollywood, the actor’s representatives would dangle as many as five studios at a time, telling each that some lucky project was likely to be his next film. Top directors such as John McTiernan, Ron Howard and even Woody Allen lined up behind the prospects. Lawyers made offers, and million-dollar writers went to work on script revisions. Moviedom’s top dealmakers then hung in suspense, waiting months at a time for the superstar’s decision.

Even while Schwarzenegger flirts with the political world -- catching welcome media attention for international premieres of “Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines” -- he has continued to tease Hollywood with hints about a next movie.

Less than two weeks ago, he made headlines in the trade papers Daily Variety and Hollywood Reporter with his reported interest in various film projects, the most prominent being New Line Cinema’s planned family comedy, “Big Sir.”

According to people familiar with the project -- about a man trekking cross-country with his future stepchildren while being chased by unsavory characters from his past -- Schwarzenegger has taken an active hand in helping land a top director.

Meanwhile, Hollywood’s Creative Artists Agency, which represents the actor, has continued to line up other potential film work. One such prospect is a remake of the science-fiction movie “Westworld” at Warner Bros. Another is a smaller, independent film titled “Cry Macho.” None of the projects is a “go” at this point.

In Mexico City to promote “Terminator 3” this week, Schwarzenegger, who turns 56 on Wednesday, continued to put off questions about his political future. “Terminator 3,” which cost about $175 million to produce and tens of millions more to market, has so far taken in only about $130 million in the U.S., signaling a tougher-than-hoped-for climb to profitability for its various financiers.

A number of Schwarzenegger’s close Hollywood allies speculated that the actor would ultimately pull back from a run out of personal concerns. He and his wife, NBC-TV journalist Maria Shriver, would be reluctant to expose themselves and their four children, whose ages range from 5 to 13, to the intense scrutiny of a campaign, they presumed.

“My gut tells me he’s not going to run,” said one film industry associate.

Still, one close friend, film producer John Davis, said Schwarzenegger and his wife could, in fact, stand the heat. “I think both of them are up to it,” said Davis, who made the action hit “Predator” with Schwarzenegger.

Riordan agreed, saying, “He is not going to be intimidated, no matter what.”

A Schwarzenegger gubernatorial campaign is potentially formidable not only because of his money and name. It could complicate efforts by Davis to portray the recall as a Republican attempt to force a conservative agenda on a state that strongly favors Democrats and moderates.

The actor’s candidacy would also be likely to change the character of the race by increasing the level of media attention. For every candidate in the race, the intense media spotlight drawn by a Hollywood star would have a significant impact on strategy.

In a typical California governor’s race, television commercials are the main vehicle for candidates to reach voters, but Schwarzenegger’s presence would attract so many television, radio and print journalists to the story that candidates would have to shift more of their attention to those “free” media venues, strategists predicted.

“It’s going to be like a presidential campaign,” said Don Sipple, a Republican media consultant who would probably be hired by Schwarzenegger to produce his ads.

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Times staff writers Mark Z. Barabak, Michael Finnegan and Eric Bailey contributed to this report.