Suspicious Union Is Wary of a Tender Trap

More than 200 free agents can begin receiving offers from teams besides their own Monday, which coincides with the start of the annual week of potted-palm rumor and negotiation at the general manager meetings in Phoenix.

Business as usual?

Well, if usual refers to the way it was last winter, when industry owners realized that supply and demand could be applied to baseball as it is to their other businesses, then that’s what it will be.

Before the 2003-04 market closes, more than 300 players are likely to be exposed to the risk of hypothermia.

Some will have qualified to become free agents as six-year major league veterans.

Others will have been dumped on a possibly cold and cruel market by clubs that either declined to pick up their 2004 options or to tender them a 2004 contract by the Dec. 20 deadline.

It’s basically a buyer’s market, with the clubs having learned to inflate the supply to such an overwhelming extent that the demand is diluted, holding down salaries.

This is one reason, as reported by The Times recently, why the players union is considering filing a grievance over what it believes to have been collusive activity by the clubs during the 2002-03 signing season and why it will be casting a wary eye on this year’s market.

This is also one reason why there is less stress on clubs to jump early: Another group of free agents will emerge in December when contracts are or are not tendered.

Consider Angel General Manager Bill Stoneman, who acknowledges that he will be talking to “starting pitchers, outfielders and maybe others [such as shortstops]” starting Monday.

However, Stoneman said he also will have an eye on the Christmas list of players who aren’t tendered contracts by Dec. 20.

“I’m sure we’re not the only club that’s going over everybody’s roster trying to determine who may or may not be tendered,” Stoneman said. “The anticipation alone to what might happen before Christmas certainly may have some effect on trades and free-agent signings before then.”

Of course, the limited quality of last year’s free-agent crop may have had as much to do with the comparatively numbing response by the clubs as did the new payroll tax and debt-service rule. The owners seemed to have interpreted those two provisions in the new bargaining agreement as forming a de facto salary cap, raising the inquisitive ire of the union.

At the same time, while the majority of clubs are retrenching financially, it might be harder for them to ignore the deeper quality in this year’s free-agent class in the hope they can find a non-tendered bargain later.

“There’s definitely some good players out there, and I fully expect that some are going to be paid a decent contract,” Stoneman said. “Will it be like it’s been at times in the past? I don’t know. Money is a big thing now and not many clubs have a lot of it. In fact, it seems like most of the deals clubs want to make right now are salary off-loads. Still, some of the free agents are going to get decent bucks.”

This year’s class, in fact, boasts attractive depth in virtually every category.

Here’s my top five at each position:

* Outfielders: Vladimir Guerrero, Gary Sheffield, Shannon Stewart, Jose Cruz Jr. and Raul Ibanez.

* Middle infielders: Miguel Tejada, Kazuo Matsui, Luis Castillo, Todd Walker and Fernando Vina.

* Corner infielders: Joe Randa, Tony Batista, Scott Spiezio, Rafael Palmeiro and J.T. Snow.

* Catchers: Javy Lopez, Ivan Rodriguez, Brad Ausmus, Benito Santiago and Brent Mayne.

* Starting pitchers: Bartolo Colon, Andy Pettitte, Kevin Millwood, Greg Maddux and Sidney Ponson.

* Closers: Keith Foulke, Ugueth Urbina, Eddie Guardado, Shigetoshi Hasegawa and tie between Tim Worrell and Tom Gordon.

* Middle relievers: Paul Quantrill, LaTroy Hawkins, Arthur Rhodes, Scott Sullivan and Jeff Nelson.

“There’s certainly more quality and early depth in the free-agent market this year than last year,” San Diego Padre General Manager Kevin Towers said, “and I still think people are going to be very aggressive going after the elite players.

“It’s hard to predict, but all it takes to set the market moving is for a couple clubs to go after the same player.

“It will be interesting to see what happens when a couple of the big guys sign.”

There weren’t that many big guys last year, and aside from the mega-signings of Jim Thome and Tom Glavine, the market failed to move much. The union’s antenna started quivering when so many mid-level players received similar, take-it-or-leave-it offers. The suspicion was that clubs were circulating offers through the commissioner’s office, an illegal information exchange.

This off-season, with a better overall class of free agents, will provide a stronger test of the owners’ discipline and unity.

Still, they seem to have gotten the hang of supply-side economics.

“It’s that second and third tier [of free agents],” Towers said. “The clubs are being a little more patient, waiting a little longer. They’ve seen some better deals to be had in January, late December. I think their fear is to go out and spend money early when comparable, or better, players might come back on the market in mid-December.

“Last year, there were so many non-tenders or players who were released or outrighted that there was one group of free agents hitting the market in November and another a month or so later. I mean, you look at deals like Pittsburgh made last year with Reggie Sanders and Kenny Lofton, who I think was signed on March 15. If you’re willing to be patient, there were some good deals to be made by waiting.”

The clubs, of course have never been very good at waiting when there’s a Guerrero or Tejada or Colon available, but fewer of them seem inclined to invest at that level any more, especially when they are keeping a closer and informed eye on each other.