Majority Now Favors Recall; Schwarzenegger Leads Rivals

A solid majority of likely voters favors removing Gov. Gray Davis from office in the recall election Tuesday, and Arnold Schwarzenegger has surged ahead of his rivals in the race to succeed him, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

By 56% to 42%, likely voters support ousting the Democratic incumbent, a sign that Davis has lost ground in the closing phase of his battle for political survival. Support for Davis has slipped among key parts of his political base -- Democrats, women, moderates and liberals among them -- since the last Times poll in early September found 50% for the recall and 47% against it.

Summing up the view of many voters was poll respondent Gladys Taub, a North Hills Democrat exasperated by the state’s giant budget shortfalls.

“Gov. Davis has been doing a terrible job, and I just want to get rid of him,” the 62-year-old paralegal, who plans to vote for Schwarzenegger, said in a follow-up interview. “Look at the state our state is in. If I ran my home that way, spending a whole lot more money than I was taking in, I’d wind up bankrupt. I’d wind up on the streets.”

Tapping that public anger is Schwarzenegger, whose campaign against “business-as-usual politics in Sacramento” has boosted his popularity as voters weigh alternatives to Davis. The Republican actor is favored by 40% of likely voters, followed by Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, a Democrat, with 32%, and state Sen. Tom McClintock (R-Thousand Oaks) with 15%.

The shift in voter support toward Schwarzenegger is dramatic: Since the last Times poll, he has made double-digit gains among Republicans, independents, whites, senior citizens, women and other major voting blocs. The early September poll had Bustamante in the lead with 30%, followed by Schwarzenegger at 25% and McClintock at 18%. Bustamante had also led Schwarzenegger in an August poll, 35% to 22%.

Over the last few weeks, several events have occurred that may have caused voters to shift their positions. Schwarzenegger has run millions of dollars in television advertising, and the major candidates held a televised debate that roughly two-thirds of likely voters in the poll said they watched.

Voters who were dissatisfied with Davis -- and with career politicians in general -- seemed to have concluded that Schwarzenegger was a viable option, said Susan Pinkus, director of The Times Poll. “If you’re going to vote for the recall, you have to have somebody in mind to replace the governor,” she said. “Before the debate, there was no one that they felt they could vote for.”

Schwarzenegger’s emergence as front-runner in the replacement race comes as he and Davis are each framing the election -- with growing acrimony -- as a two-man contest.

Each is running TV spots attacking the other. Schwarzenegger accuses Davis of mismanagement and calls on voters to dump him. Davis defends his stewardship of California and tries to raise doubts about Schwarzenegger’s fitness for public office.

A key part of Davis’ strategy is to persuade recall supporters to switch their votes from yes to no for fear of a Schwarzenegger victory. The poll shows the narrow reach of that approach: 6% of recall backers said they might switch their vote if it looked like Schwarzenegger would win.

Angela Rodriguez, 29, a Democrat and a technology company manager from Bakersfield, is one of them. She plans to vote for Bustamante, but prefers Davis to Schwarzenegger. So if it looks like the Republican will win, she will switch her vote on the recall.

“He’s a good actor, but that’s not good enough,” she said. Davis, she added, “can’t screw up anything more than he’s already screwed it up.”

Overall, the poll found that the central theme of Schwarzenegger’s candidacy had struck a chord with likely voters: Rather than finding him frightening, they see him as the candidate most apt to curb the influence of special interests in Sacramento.

“I look at him as maybe like a Kennedy, where he really wants to do something good, because he’s not in it for the money,” said Jim Rego, 58, a Castro Valley independent who owns a gas station outside Oakland.

Rego faults Davis for the state budget mess and sees Schwarzenegger as “a guy who can run a business, balance the books.” He typically votes for Democrats; Schwarzenegger will be the first exception since Rego went for Ross Perot in the 1992 presidential race.

“I was disgusted with the way the country was going then; we’re worse off now than we were then,” he said.

Although Schwarzenegger has accepted campaign money from donors with business before the governor’s office -- despite a pledge not to do so -- most likely voters say that would make no difference in whether they would vote for him.

Many likely voters do harbor reservations about the former champion bodybuilder. Only 8% think Schwarzenegger has the best experience for the job of governor, well behind Davis, McClintock and Bustamante. Also, only 8% believe that Schwarzenegger seemed more knowledgeable than his opponents in last week’s debate in Sacramento.

But that seemed to matter less than other qualities. A broad swath of voters see in Schwarzenegger an aptitude they have found lacking in Davis since the 2001 energy crisis: leadership. On the question of who would be a strong leader, Schwarzenegger is ahead with 36%, followed by McClintock at 21%, Davis at 18% and Bustamante at 16%.

“He’s not going to be pushed around by people,” said nurse practitioner Karen Keller, 62, a Republican from Lakewood. Since the last Times poll, a wave of independent voters has shifted toward Schwarzenegger, moving away from both Bustamante and, more decisively, McClintock.

While Schwarzenegger’s support among independents has rocketed from 14% to 44%, McClintock’s has plunged from 28% to 8%. Bustamante’s has dropped slightly, from 24% to 21%. Bustamante made up for that loss by gaining some support among Democrats.

The Times Poll, supervised by Pinkus, interviewed 1,982 adults statewide Sept. 25-29. Among them were 1,496 registered voters, including 815 deemed likely to vote in the recall election. The margin of sampling error among likely voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points for the full sample; it is larger for subgroups.

For Davis, a key challenge in the final days of the race is to bolster support among Democrats. Despite his aggressive efforts to woo union members, Latinos and other traditional blocs of the party, the survey found 27% of Democrats supporting the recall, up from 19% in the last poll.

Among liberal Democrats, support for the recall grew from 1-in-10 to 2-in-10. Among moderate Democrats, support climbed from 30% early last month to 35%. Union members, a key to Davis’ success in prior elections, also tilted further in favor of the recall, from 51% in the last poll to 54% in the most recent.

Other signs of trouble for Davis: 54% of women back the recall; early last month, 54% of women opposed it. Support for the recall also grew among the elderly, who typically turn out to vote in large numbers. While voters 65 and older were evenly split on the recall in the last poll, they now favor it, 54% to 46%. Even Los Angeles County voters, crucial to the success of any Democrat in a statewide election, have swung in favor of the recall, 53% to 46%. Early last month, they opposed it, 58% to 38%.

Support for the recall also remains overwhelming among Republicans and conservatives: nearly nine in 10 of each favor the governor’s ouster. Among whites -- more than two-thirds of the electorate -- 62% favor the recall.

“I just pray that guy gets thrown out on his ear, because he is the kiss of death for this state, there is no question,” said former lumber company owner Tom Skuse, 50, a Rancho Cucamonga Republican.

Among Skuse’s biggest complaints is the governor’s approval of a bill to allow illegal immigrants to obtain driver’s licenses.

“We’re going to hand out licenses to people who can’t even speak English,” he said. “Come on. You don’t think that was a vote-buying deal?”

Davis resisted signing the measure last year, citing public-safety concerns. But after approving it this year he has used it as the cornerstone of his appeals to Latino voters, most recently in a Spanish-language ad he started running Tuesday.

Yet the poll suggests that the tactic may have backfired.

Among likely voters, more than three out of five oppose the driver’s license bill. Moreover, 43% of likely voters say a candidate’s support for it would make them less likely to vote for that person, although 41% say it would make no difference.

Latinos are now split on the recall, 49% for it and 48% against, which represents a slight movement on behalf of the governor.

Schwarzenegger, who opposes the driver’s license measure, has sought to use the issue against Davis, which may account for a slight slide among the Republican’s Latino support -- to roughly one in four voters. McClintock has also spoken out against the measure. Bustamante supports it.

With the license controversy raging, immigration has risen to be the fourth-most important problem that likely voters say the governor should address. First is the budget; second, the economy; and third, education.

“I’m tired of subsidizing illegals,” said Burbank Democrat Denise Cochran, 43, an acting teacher who supports the recall and sees the driver’s license law as “incredibly dangerous.”

“I’m paying through the nose,” she said. “I’m tired of it. All these schools we’re building are because the illegals have their children here. I want their children to be educated, but somebody has to pay these bills.”

For Bustamante, the poll results are bleak. Only 41% have a favorable impression of him, while 58% view Schwarzenegger favorably and 62% see McClintock in a positive light.

Bustamante’s millions of dollars in campaign donations from casino-owning tribes -- the subject of an unfavorable court ruling and a host of Schwarzenegger ads -- appear to have damaged his public image. Four in 10 voters say those contributions make them less likely to vote for Bustamante, although 54% say they make no difference.

Oakland Democrat Lark Coryell, 50, a brand-identity consultant, said Bustamante seemed to offer little improvement over Davis. “They both strike me as very slippery,” she said.

For McClintock, the poll shows widespread admiration but erosion nonetheless. He is well ahead of Schwarzenegger and Bustamante on whether he has the character and integrity to be governor; three out of four voters say that he does. Voters say McClintock did the best job in the Sacramento debate.

But nearly half of likely voters say McClintock is too conservative to have a realistic chance of winning. Moreover, Schwarzenegger, a moderate, has picked off much of McClintock’s base of support among conservative Republicans. As McClintock’s support in that group dropped from 40% to 31%, Schwarzenegger’s jumped from 45% to 64%.

That shift appears to reflect a sentiment, shared by the state GOP establishment, that a Republican governor who supports legal abortion, gay rights and gun control -- anathema to many party loyalists -- is still preferable to a Democrat.

“My preference is McClintock,” said Keller, who cited his “pro-life” stand as evidence that he shares her values. “But I understand if the vote is split, we can get something worse, like Bustamante, which would be as bad as Gray or maybe worse.”

She plans to vote for Schwarzenegger.

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

A dramatic shift

If the election were being held today, how would you vote on recalling Gov. Gray Davis?

Yes: 56%

No: 42%

Don’t know: 2%

If the election were being held today, for whom would you vote?

Schwarzenegger: 40%

Bustamante: 32%

McClintock: 15%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

The recall election

Q: If the election were being held today, how would you vote on recalling Gov. Gray Davis?

*--* Now Sept. 6-10 Aug. 16-21 Yes, recall Davis 56% 50% 50% No, do not recall Davis 42% 47% 45% Don’t know 2% 3% 5%

*--*

Q: If the election were being held today and these were the candidates, for whom would you vote?

*--* Now Sept. 6-10 Aug. 16-21 Arnold Schwarzenegger 40% 25% 22% Cruz Bustamante 32% 30% 35% Tom McClintock 15% 18% 12% Peter Miguel Camejo 3% 2% 1% Arianna Huffington - 3% 3% Others* (volunteered) 1% 9% 14% Wouldn’t vote 5% 8% 4% Don’t know 4% 5% 9%

*--*

* Includes Larry Flynt, Bill Simon and Peter Ueberroth, who were among the listed candidates in the earlier polls.

Q: If the only two major candidates on the ballot were Cruz Bustamante and Arnold Schwarzenegger, for whom would you vote?

Schwarzenegger: 53%

Bustamante: 38%

Others (volunteered): 2%

No vote/Don’t know: 7%

Q: What one issue or problem in California would you say is most important for the governor to address?*

*--* All likely Schwarzenegger Bustamante McClintock voters voters voters voters Budget deficit 37% 35% 33% 52% Education 23% 17% 28% 18% Economy 19% 16% 25% 16% Immigration 13% 16% 8% 19% Taxes 9% 14% 3% 7% Workers’ comp 8% 11% 3% 18%

*--*

* Accepted up to two replies. Top six responses shown. Voter subgroups are based on responses to the five-way matchup.

Q: These phrases could apply to any of the candidates or to Gov. Davis. Do you think each applies more to Schwarzenegger or Bustamante or McClintock or Davis?

*--* Schwarzenegger Bustamante McClintock Davis Has the best 8% 15% 34% 38% experience for the job Will be a strong leader 36% 16% 21% 18% Will reduce the 50% 8% 14% 8% influence of special interests in Sacramento

*--*

Q: What is your impression of ...

*--* Favorable Unfavorable Don’t know McClintock 62% 25% 13% Schwarzenegger 58% 39% 3% Bustamante 41% 54% 5% Davis 37% 62% 1%

*--*

Q: The Legislature passed and Gov. Davis signed a bill which allows illegal immigrants to get driver’s licenses. Supporters say it will make the roads safer by requiring illegal immigrants who apply for licenses to pass driving tests and buy auto insurance. Opponents say it rewards illegal immigration and is a threat to public safety. Do you approve or disapprove of Gov. Davis signing that legislation?**

Approve strongly: 19%

Approve somewhat: 12%

Disapprove somewhat: 6%

Disapprove strongly: 57%

Q: Are you more or less likely to vote for a candidate who supports legislation that lets illegal immigrants get driver’s licenses?

More likely: 13%

Less likely: 43%

No difference: 41%

Q: Indian tribes that own gambling casinos have made large contributions to Bustamante’s campaign. Critics say that his accepting such contributions represents a conflict of interest since the tribes negotiate compacts and contracts with the governor and the Legislature. Bustamante says that he has long championed Native American rights and that his ties to the tribes go back to before they had money to donate. Does knowing that Bustamante has taken such contributions make you more or less likely to vote for him for governor?**

More likely: 4%

Less likely: 40%

No difference: 54%

Q: Real estate developers, contractors and others who have business before the governor and the Legislature have made large contributions to Schwarzenegger’s campaign. Critics say that his accepting these contributions contradicts his statement that he would not accept money from special interests. Schwarzenegger says that unlike labor unions and Indian tribes who negotiate directly with the state, his donors do not. Does knowing that Schwarzenegger has taken such contributions make you more or less likely to vote for him for governor?**

More likely: 4%

Less likely: 31%

No difference: 61%

** Pro and con arguments were rotated when read to respondents.

Q: Does this candidate have the character and integrity to be governor of California, or not?

*--* Yes No McClintock 75% 14% Schwarzenegger 62% 33% Bustamante 48% 45

*--*

Notes: All results shown are among likely voters. Results in vote questions include those who are leaning toward voting a particular way. ‘ -- ‘ indicates less than 0.5%. Numbers may not total 100% where more than one response was accepted or some answer categories are not shown.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,982 California adults, including 1,496 registered voters and 815 voters considered likely to turn out on Oct. 7. The survey was conducted by telephone Sept. 25-29. An additional random sample of the state was also surveyed over the same period and added to the sample, which brought the total number of Latino likely voters in the survey to 137. The entire sample of adults was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age and education as well as to registration figures provided by the secretary of state. The margin of sampling error for likely voters is 3 percentage points in either direction; among Latinos it is 8 points. Surveys conducted during busy campaign seasons are subject to influence by news events and can be affected by factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Telephone numbers for Times Poll samples are randomly selected from the set of all telephone exchanges in the state, which allows all California residents equal chance of being contacted without regard to listed or unlisted numbers or their presence on registered voter lists. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. All racial and ethnic groups are proportionally represented in this survey, even when there may not be enough in the sample to be specifically mentioned. (Field work for the random Latino sample was conducted by Interviewing Services of America.)

Times Poll results are also available at www.latimes.com/timespoll.

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Jill Darling Richardson, associate director of The Times Poll, and Claudia Vaughn, the poll’s data management supervisor, contributed to this report.