Emboldened GOP Ponders the Odds of Unseating Boxer

The recall of Gov. Gray Davis has given some Republicans hope of unseating another powerful Democrat -- U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer. The question is: Has it also exhausted the voters’ zeal for change that GOP challengers need to unseat the two-term senator?

With the Senate primaries less than five months away, only a few Republicans, none well-known statewide, are either running or exploring a bid against Boxer. Still unknown is whether any other candidates, encouraged by Arnold Schwarzenegger’s victory, will jump into the race. Also unclear is whether the new governor will use his political capital to influence the outcome.

Not surprisingly, Democrats and Republicans disagree whether the outcome of the recall will affect the state’s next big race.

While the recall was fueled by voter discontent toward Davis, some political analysts doubt that such anger will be easily transferred to Boxer, even if she is a liberal Democrat who supported Davis and campaigned against the recall.

“Republicans will be wrong to overreach,” said Martin Kaplan, a former Democratic campaign aide and dean of USC’s Annenberg School for Communication. “Gray Davis is one of the most unpopular politicians in California history. That is not Barbara Boxer.”

The passions may have died down by next year, Democratic strategist Bill Carrick said.

“The recall makes it tougher because the state of California is having a political hangover,” said Carrick, who is sitting out the Senate race. He also predicted that the presidential primary in March will draw energy and attention away from the Senate race.

Still, Republican party leaders and some challengers say Boxer is more vulnerable since voters gave Schwarzenegger the keys to the governor’s office.

“If anyone has to be nervous about the results of the election, it is Barbara Boxer,” said GOP consultant Allan Hoffenblum.

That is because, other Republicans say, Schwarzenegger’s strong win re-energized the party faithful.

“This is a year when Republicans are feeling better about their chances,” said Ken Khachigian, a GOP strategist for former U.S. Treasurer and possible Boxer challenger Rosario Marin.

Boxer, a 12-year veteran of the Senate, said she heard similar predictions about her vulnerability during her last two campaigns.

“They called me whatever they wanted -- but at the end of the day, they still called me senator,” she said.

Boxer has two overriding advantages as she seeks reelection.

Despite Schwarzenegger’s victory, Democrats still enjoy a significant advantage in the number of registered voters; California has sided with the Democratic candidate in the five U.S. Senate contests since 1992.

Also, California is by far the most expensive state in which to run a campaign, meaning the winner needs either a hefty personal bankroll or an extensive donor list from which to procure the $2,000 maximum federal donations.

Boxer expects to spend $15 million to $20 million on the race. Already, her campaign has reported raising more than $7.35 million as of the end of September and has more than $4 million on hand.

Among her possible GOP opponents, Silicon Valley businesswoman Toni Casey, who served three years as mayor of Los Altos, has raised more than $540,000 and has about $322,000 on hand for the same period, according to her campaign.

Assemblyman Tony Strickland (R-Moorpark) -- who announced his candidacy Wednesday -- has collected nearly $74,000 and has almost $48,000 on hand, according to his campaign.

Marin has yet to file a finance statement or to officially announce a bid. She left her job as treasurer earlier this year to return to Huntington Park, where she had served as mayor.

Democratic strategists argue that the Republican lineup shows the Senate race will be starkly different from the recall campaign.

Davis, after all, was challenged by a multimillionaire movie star with worldwide name recognition. To beat Boxer, USC political analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe said, a challenger must have strong name recognition and the ability to raise a formidable campaign war chest.

“It has to be someone with a bit more gravitas name recognition than those names that have been floated around,” she said.

USC communications dean Kaplan and others argue that the Republican party’s best chance of beating Boxer is to nominate a moderate candidate. But historically, moderate candidates have been forced out during the primary by the party’s conservative wing. The lack of a primary was seen as central to the moderate Schwarzenegger’s decision to enter the recall race, though he ultimately won a huge majority of conservative votes.

While Republican candidates will spend a big chunk of their money battling each other in the primary, political analysts say Boxer will be able to save most of her war chest for the general election in November.

“I think Sen. Boxer is in good shape,” said Carrick.

As one of the most liberal members of the Senate, Boxer has been a perennial target for Republicans, particularly given the perceived strength of the other Democratic senator, Dianne Feinstein. But several candidates who were considered tough opponents have already chosen not to run.

Rep. Doug Ose, a Sacramento developer and moderate Republican, dropped out in May after planning a statewide tour to announce his bid. Another Republican congressman, George P. Radanovich of Mariposa, also decided against a challenge after traveling the state to assess his chances. State Sen. Tom McClintock, who received higher favorable ratings than Schwarzenegger during the recall race, said he won’t challenge Boxer next year and will seek another term in the state Senate.

Some GOP strategists have suggested that comedian Dennis Miller, who appeared alongside Schwarzenegger during the recall campaign, might challenge Boxer. A spokesman for Miller said the comedian had “nothing to say” about a possible U.S. Senate bid.

Former Secretary of State Bill Jones is also mulling a shot at the seat. “I’m looking at it seriously, and I’ll make a decision fairly quickly,” Jones said.

Those in the race are following the template of Boxer’s previous opponents, arguing that the senator is too liberal for the state.

Strickland, the Moorpark assemblyman, said Schwarzenegger’s victory proves that a Republican candidate can draw Democrats and independent voters to win a statewide election in California.

Strickland said he plans to hammer Boxer for voting against President Bush’s resolution to go to war in Iraq and for opposing the president’s economic package.

“She is going to have to defend her record and I think it’s a record that is indefensible,” he said.

Marin is expected to position herself as a moderate. Like Schwarzenegger, she is an abortion rights advocate and an immigrant -- in Marin’s case, from Mexico. Marin and Schwarzenegger even pronounce “California” the same way, Marin strategist Khachigian joked.

Khachigian said Marin “is Barbara Boxer’s worst nightmare” because she might dislodge Latino votes from the Democratic column. He said Marin will be able to paint Boxer as a liberal but Boxer will be unable to portray Marin as too conservative for the state.

(Boxer noted in response that in 1998, Republican strategists called her then-challenger, former state Treasurer Matt Fong, her “worst nightmare.” Boxer beat him by 10 points.)

For her part, Boxer said the race should not be a referendum on Davis and his policies, but instead focus on issues such as health care, the environment, Social Security, the national deficit and the economy. She has been one of Bush’s staunchest critics and she expects her challengers to attack her position on key national issues.

“They are going to come after me and that is fine because it means I am standing up for what I believe,” she said.