Drought, Heat, Dead Trees Inflame Fears of Wildfires

An ominous alignment of drought, high temperatures and millions of dead trees has sparked fears across the West that this year’s fire season could be among the most devastating the region has ever seen.

Worried public safety officials are pinning their hopes on a very wet April to prevent a repeat of 2002, when blazes ripped through Colorado, Arizona and Utah, destroying hundreds of homes and causing millions in damage. So far, though, little rain has fallen and much of the snow cover has melted.

And in California, which last year had its biggest fires in modern history, all the elements are in place for another horrific fire season. Last fall’s wildfires in Southern California consumed 738,000 acres, destroyed more than 3,600 homes and structures, and took 26 lives.

Riverside, San Bernardino and San Diego counties are listed as severe fire dangers this year largely because of more than 1 million dead, dry trees spread out over 400,000 acres. Last year’s fires burned only 5% of the counties’ dead trees, officials said.

“We have a historically unprecedented infestation of Western bark beetles that have destroyed the trees,” said Karen Terrill, spokesperson for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. “Last year, we saw when the fire got into the bug kill, it became very aggressive.”

While lifeless pines stand like unlit matches in Southern California, thousands of diseased oaks pose similar dangers in 12 counties near San Francisco. Sudden oak death syndrome has killed trees throughout the Bay Area, leaving them and the grasslands they inhabit ripe for ignition, Terrill said.

In Colorado, firefighters fear another summer of 2002, when the worst fires in its history tore through the state, culminating in the giant Hayman Fire that consumed 137,000 acres and destroyed 132 homes and businesses.

Barring a last-minute blizzard or monsoon-like rains, it seems history could be on the verge of repeating itself.

Soaring temperatures, bone-dry conditions and some early wildfires have Colorado firefighters on statewide alert. March, traditionally the snowiest month of the year, was the driest one in nearly a century. Meanwhile, the state has launched its most aggressive plan to thin forests and reduce fuel for fire -- aiming to eliminate 67,000 acres of vulnerable trees and brush.

Federal, state and local officials are coordinating emergency efforts. Air tankers are being positioned around the state to go into action wherever a fire develops.

“The Hayman Fire changed all the assumptions about what a big fire could do,” said Rick Cables, regional forester for the Forest Service who oversees Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, South Dakota and Kansas. “Prior to that, our biggest [Colorado] fire was 25,000 acres, and before that, 12,000 acres.”

Cables said conditions were similar to those in 2002.

Already this year, a still-smoldering wildfire near Fort Collins, Col., burned more than 9,000 acres. On Thursday, a man whose yard fire reportedly started the blaze was charged with fourth-degree arson.

Fire officials say an unusually warm March has led to rapid snowmelt that has left many Western states with only about 60% or 70% of their usual snowpack. The danger zones include the Four Corners region where Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah meet, along with wide swaths of eastern Washington, northern Idaho, western Montana, eastern Oregon and northern Wyoming.

“A lot depends on April,” said Rick Ochoa, fire weather program manager for the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho. “If we had a really wet April it wouldn’t avert a fire season, but it would shorten the window.”

With the exception of heavy rains in New Mexico, there has been little precipitation throughout the West. In Arizona, temperatures reached 100 degrees in some places last month. The high heat and low humidity have already triggered between 60 and 100 wildfires in Arizona.

“The vegetation is drying out; there are low dew point and strong winds,” said Jim Payne, a spokesman for the Forest Service in Arizona. “Unless we get major moisture, we are going to have major fire dangers in the ponderosa pine forests.”

Arizona’s largest wildfire, the Rodeo-Chediski, burned 470,000 acres and destroyed more than 400 homes in 2002. A fire last year on Mt. Lemmon near Tucson burned more than 250 houses and cabins.

New Mexico has had major snow and rain this year, dampening fire dangers for the time being. Utah officials say the state is expecting an above-average to extreme fire season.

“We had high hopes because we had lots of snow in January,” said Jim Springer, spokesman for Utah’s Division of Forestry, Fire and State Lands. “The drought seemed to be in the breaking stage, but now it’s slowing down.”

Colorado’s tinderbox is its southwest corner, where beetles have killed up to 80% of the pinyon trees, which are dry and ready to burn.

“It ain’t looking good,” said Mike Dunaway, chief of the Durango Fire and Rescue Authority. “We could have all the moisture in the world and those trees will never come back.”

In 2002, a fire near Durango torched 70,000 acres.

Dunaway said it would take three to four years of above-normal rain or snow to salvage trees weakened by drought.

“The conditions now are just right for big fires,” he said. “This isn’t new; it’s Mother Nature at work.”

Sometimes Mother Nature rides to the rescue. Last March, a blizzard dumped up to 5 feet of snow across large swaths of Colorado, saving the state from the threat of rampant wildfires.

But weather forecasters say it may be too late for a repeat performance. Temperatures around the state have been in the 70s and 80s, with little precipitation forecast.

“Time is running out. We have a week or two left for a big snowstorm,” said Mike Gillespie, snow survey supervisor at the Natural Resources Conservation Service near Denver. “We could be saved in the end, but it’s a longshot.”