Lorenzo’s Toil Paying Off

It seemed wrong to Arizona Coach Lute Olson, who knows something about college basketball.

Washington was Olson’s clear pick to win the Pacific 10 Conference regular-season title, explaining his surprise last month when the media voted Arizona first and the Huskies second in a preseason poll.

So much for voting early.

The top two teams probably would have switched positions if the poll had been conducted after nonconference play, which wouldn’t have surprised Olson.

“It didn’t quite make sense to me,” Olson said. “Washington lost no one. They beat us three times last year. Washington has the experience back.

“We’re an experienced team, but we’re not as experienced as they are. If you took us out of the mix, I would go with Washington.”

Olson’s not alone now.

Coaches and reporters who cover the Pac-10 expect Washington to set the pace in a conference striving to regain its luster after having received only three bids to last season’s NCAA tournament.

The Huskies (10-1) are in the lead there too. They had the Pac-10’s biggest nonconference victory -- 68-64 over previously unbeaten and then-No. 9 North Carolina State on Dec. 19. At the opening of conference play tonight, the Pac-10 ranked second only to the Atlantic Coast Conference in the nonconference Ratings Percentage Index (RPI), which is one of the criteria the NCAA uses in selecting the tournament field.

The Huskies’ impressive performance against the Wolfpack of the powerful ACC -- which has seven teams ranked in the Associated Press top 25 -- only reinforced the perception that they’re the team to beat.

No. 13 Washington is talented, deep and has the Pac-10’s most exciting player in guard Nate Robinson. That combination could provide the foundation of the Huskies’ first Pac-10 championship in 20 years.

And a consensus top-five recruiting class is coming to provide more help, making life very good for Coach Lorenzo Romar at his alma mater.

The Huskies are rolling in his third season, and the rest of the Pac-10 will play follow the leader.

“Our guys have done a good job of handling success, which is probably one of the most difficult things to do in life,” said Romar, who played two seasons at Washington, then completed a bachelor’s degree in criminal justice at Cincinnati. “When things go well for you, you have a tendency to relax and get distracted ... to become a little overconfident. That’s something you try to guard against, and we’ve done a good job of staying together and keeping things in perspective.”

Overconfidence wasn’t among the Huskies’ problems early last season. They opened 0-5 in conference play and appeared headed toward another difficult season. The Huskies were 10-17 overall and ninth in the conference at 5-13 in Romar’s first year.

But the Huskies went 12-1 in their final 13 Pac-10 games last season, capping the stunning turnaround in a 75-62 victory over No. 1 and previously unbeaten Stanford in the final regular-season game. They participated in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1999, losing to Alabama Birmingham in the first round, 102-100.

With expectations high in Seattle this season, Washington has not disappointed.

The Huskies beat Utah, Oklahoma and No. 18 Alabama in winning the Great Alaska Shootout in November. Their only loss was to No. 12 Gonzaga, which has the nation’s three biggest nonconference victories, having also defeated Oklahoma State and Georgia Tech.

Washington plays fast but in control under the direction of point guard Will Conroy and Robinson, a dynamic scorer at only 5 feet 9.

Guard Brandon Roy returned earlier than expected from a knee injury he suffered in Alaska and provided a boost in the upset of North Carolina State. And despite lacking size in the frontcourt, the Huskies have improved in rebounding from last season.

“Our players came together and agreed that this is going to be a team, a group situation, and that we’re going to get something accomplished because we’re going to do it together,” Romar said. “Everyone has bought into helping each other.”

**

A LOOK AT THE TEAMS

(Listed in predicted order of finish with last season’s overall, conference records.)

Washington (19-12, 12-6, second). NCAA tournament: Lost to Alabama Birmingham, 102-100, in the first round. Coach: Lorenzo Romar (third year, 39-30). Key returners: Gs Nate Robinson, Will Conroy and Brandon Roy; Fs Bobby Jones and Mike Jensen. Key newcomers: F Jamaal Williams, G/F Joel Smith. The Huskies are thriving in Romar’s fast-paced offense, averaging almost 92 points. No Pac-10 team shoots better or has an impact player the caliber of Robinson. Washington is sound fundamentally and highly skilled.

Arizona (20-10, 11-7, third). NCAA tournament: Lost to Seton Hall, 80-76, in the first round. Coach: Lute Olson (22nd year, 529-159). Key returners: Gs Salim Stoudamire, Mustafa Shakur and Chris Rodgers; C Channing Frye; Fs Hassan Adams, Isaiah Fox and Ivan Radenovic. Key newcomers: G Jawann McClellan, G/F Jesus Verdejo. The No. 14 Wildcats played a tough nonconference schedule and had impressive victories, but poor three-point shooting could hurt them. Frye is the Pac-10’s best true center. Stoudamire excels on offense, but will he commit to defense and senior leadership? If he does, Olson might get the 14 wins he needs to tie John Wooden’s all-time Pac-10 mark (304).

Oregon (18-13, 9-9, fourth). Postseason NIT: Lost to Michigan, 78-53, in the semifinals. Coach: Ernie Kent (eighth year, 143-82). Key returners: Gs Aaron Brooks, Jordan Kent and Brandon Lincoln; C Ian Crosswhite. Key newcomers: Gs Malik Hairston and Bryce Taylor, F Maarty Leunen. The Ducks have produced first-round NBA draft picks the last three years under Kent, who reloaded with one of the best recruiting classes in school history. As expected, Hairston has made the biggest impact of the freshmen. He’s second in scoring and rebounding and already among the Pac-10’s top players. Brooks runs the offense while also leading the team in scoring.

Oregon State (12-16, 6-12, ninth). Coach: Jay John (third year, 33-34). Key returners: Fs David Lucas and Jim Hanchett, Gs Chris Stephens and J.S. Nash. Key newcomers: Fs Sasa Cuic and Marcel Jones, G Jason Fontenet. The Beavers could be the Pac-10’s surprise team because of Lucas, who played for the first time this season in Tuesday’s 86-59 victory over Sacramento State. The son of former NBA star Maurice Lucas had been sidelined after toe surgery. He could team with Cuic, an impressive freshman, to give the Beavers a formidable one-two punch.

USC (13-15, 8-10, sixth). Coach Jim Saia (first year, 5-2). Key returners: Fs Jeff McMillan, Gregg Guenther, Nick Curtis; C Rory O’Neil; Gs Lodrick Stewart, Derrick Craven, Errick Craven. Key newcomers: Gs Gabe Pruitt and Dwayne Shackleford, F Nick Young. The Trojans have overcome the off-court distraction of their coaching situation while playing well under interim Coach Saia. McMillan and Guenther are a powerful inside tandem. Although Pruitt will make freshman mistakes, he has the skills to become a star point guard. Young and Stewart are exciting when the pace quickens.

Arizona State (10-17, 4-14, 10th). Coach Rob Evans (seventh year, 101-90). Key returners: F/C Ike Diogu; Gs Steve Moore, Kevin Kruger and Jason Braxton; F Serge Angounou. Key newcomers: G/F Bryson Krueger, G Tyrone Jackson. The Sun Devils (11-1), picked last in the preseason media poll, have won nine in a row for the first time since 1980-81. They’re shooting well around All-American Diogu and playing strong defense. However, the Sun Devils’ nonconference RPI strength of scheduled is only 232, and they still might not be good enough for their second NCAA tournament appearance in three years.

Stanford (30-2, 17-1, first). NCAA tournament: Lost to Alabama, 70-67, in second round. Coach: Trent Johnson (first year, 6-4). Key returners: G Chris Hernandez; Fs Dan Grunfeld and Matt Haryasz; C Rob Little; G/F Nick Robinson. Key newcomer: G Tim Morris. No team has undergone a bigger makeover than Stanford, which was ranked No. 1 during last season. The Cardinal lost coach Mike Montgomery to the NBA’s Golden State Warriors, swingman Josh Childress -- the Pac-10 player of the year -- forward Justin Davis and guard Matt Lottich. Johnson, a former Montgomery assistant, led Nevada to the Sweet 16 last season but probably won’t have similar success this season. Hernandez might be the league’s best floor leader and Little is an inside presence, but the Cardinal has struggled to keep pace with more athletic teams.

UCLA (11-17, 7-11, eighth). Coach: Ben Howland (second year, 17-19). Key returners: G/F Dijon Thompson; G Brian Morrison; C Michael Fey; F/C Ryan Hollins. Key newcomers: Gs Jordan Farmar, Arron Afflalo; G/F Josh Shipp; C Lorenzo Mata. Coaches are raving about the Bruins’ dynamic freshman backcourt of Farmar and Afflalo, and Howland is determined to lead the Bruins back among the game’s elite. It won’t happen this season because of UCLA’s poor play inside. Fey and Hollins, 7-footers who play much smaller, haven’t progressed as Howland had hoped they would. Hollins has already lost his starting job to freshman Shipp, and Fey’s minutes might dwindle as freshman Mata develops.

California (13-15, 9-9, fifth). Coach: Ben Braun (eighth year, 160-97). Key returners: Gs Richard Midgley and Martin Smith; F/C Rod Benson; G/F Marquise Kately. Key newcomers: F/C DeVon Hardin; Fs Eric Vierneisel and Kevin Langford. Things are not going well for the Golden Bears. They lost star forward Leon Powe, last season’s Pac-10 freshman of the year, before the season and guard Ayinde Ubaka is sidelined as well. Midgley still provides scoring and Braun won’t be outcoached, but the Bears have lost too much star power to contend in the conference.

Washington State (13-16, 7-11 seventh). Coach: Dick Bennett (second year, 18-20). Key returners: Gs Thomas Kelati and Jeff Varem; Fs Shaminder Gill and Chris Schlatter. Key newcomers: C Robbie Cowgill; Gs Derrick Low and Josh Akognon. Freshmen play key roles for the Cougars, who are low on talent. Bennett coaches a slowdown style that gives opponents fits, but that won’t be enough to help the Cougars avoid the Pac-10 basement.