It’s a harsh reality for networks

As the second half of the TV season rings in, the broadcast networks are facing up to some reality.

In coming weeks, reality of the TV sort, the unscripted but highly edited and stage-managed programs that have captured viewers’ imaginations, will be front and center. Fox’s “American Idol” launches its third go-round; CBS’ “Survivor” brings back its memorable past contestants for a playoff round; a new “Bachelorette” auditions husbands on ABC; and people ranging from New York real estate mogul Donald Trump to porn veteran Ron Jeremy turn up on all the networks.

But there’s another reality, too. For all its hold on the pop culture discussion, unscripted TV hasn’t been able to stave off an unpleasant truth for the four major broadcasters this season: Their audience is going elsewhere.

Ratings for ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox among the 18- to 49-year-olds whom advertisers care most about are down 4% so far this September-to-May season. When the highly rated World Series on Fox is factored out, the audience loss in the key demographic is 8%. The networks contend that some of that loss is due to measurement problems at Nielsen Media Research, but what they don’t dispute is that a new onslaught of original cable series headed to screens this winter and spring will intensify the battle for viewers’ remote controls.

For the second calendar year, combined total-day household ratings for basic cable networks -- those that accept advertising -- have surpassed the broadcast networks. Some of those gains are thanks to the broadcasters themselves; TNT, for one, became the most-viewed cable network in prime time this calendar year, due in large part to its reruns of NBC’s “Law and Order.”

Still, original cable programming is adding up. The final episodes of HBO’s “Sex and the City,” which began airing Sunday night, seem a sure bet to reel in viewers, as does the long-awaited return of HBO’s “The Sopranos” in March. USA’s “Monk,” fresh from Tony Shalhoub’s Emmy win, is back Jan. 16.

Showtime unveils its heavily promoted lesbian-themed series “The L Word” on Jan. 18. Dennis Miller has a new nightly show on CNBC. FX’s widely acclaimed “The Shield” returns in March and its popular “Nip/Tuck” will have a second season beginning a few months later. Networks from A&E; to ESPN, Sci Fi , IFC and VH1 have new unscripted series on tap.

The breadth of cable’s new offerings will be apparent starting this week, when TV critics and industry executives gather for the twice-a-year Television Critics Assn. “press tour” to view upcoming shows. Broadcasters take their turn on the weekend.

Will unscripted shows be enough to draw the audience back to the broadcast networks? “I really don’t think this season is essentially any different than any other season: If you put on shows people want to see, they will come,” said Kelly Kahl, executive vice president in charge of scheduling for CBS.

So industry executives are betting that, despite a flood of “American Idol” tie-ins -- from a pre-Christmas special to the Christmas Day “World Idol” contest -- viewers will again show up for the series’ latest incarnation beginning Jan. 19.

“It’s a heck of a strong franchise, not to be taken lightly,” Kahl said. So is CBS’ own “Survivor,” which just finished its seventh edition. Another strong bet are the last episodes of NBC’s “Friends,” ending its 10-year run in May.

But it’s anyone’s guess whether viewers will return for new rounds of ABC’s “Celebrity Mole,” NBC’s “Average Joe,” UPN’s “Top Model” or any of the new unscripted shows. As for new scripted shows -- old-fashioned sitcoms and dramas -- at least on the broadcast networks, they just don’t have as much buzz this year. Expect them to slip onto the schedules in March and April, when the February frenzy of awards shows has calmed down, and the critical ratings “sweeps” have concluded.

That reality also is sinking in, as the networks look beyond the next few months to their fall 2004 schedules, to be unveiled to advertisers in May. “We’re still committed to finding strong quality-scripted shows,” said NBC’s Jeff Zucker, who recently added news and cable to his role as president of NBC Entertainment. But with the fall success of unscripted programs such as “Average Joe,” he said, “you cannot deny that the audience is looking for shows like that.”

So with the new year just begun, here is a rundown of strengths and weaknesses among the broadcast networks as they prepare to face the gathered media, while also trying to make sense of a business where old rules increasingly don’t apply.

The most-watched

CBS: Going into the second half of the season, CBS is sitting in the catbird’s seat. There were a couple disappointments this fall, notably David E. Kelley’s short-lived “Brotherhood of Poland, NH,” but overall, CBS’ strong showing -- with continuing “CSI” hits, a growing “Without a Trace,” and a fine-tuned formula for “Survivor” -- made it not only the most-watched network, but more attractive to young adults than it has been in a couple of decades. It is in second place among the 18-to-49 crowd, which Kahl calls “gravy,” for the network, given that it targets a slightly older audience.

If Fox and NBC have their way, the second half of the year will change all that. But CBS, too, has some tricks, including a packed one-week period in February that includes the Super Bowl, the launch of “Survivor: All-Stars” immediately after and then the Grammy Awards.

With its appeal to an older audience, CBS executives think the network is better prepared than others to withstand the competitive pressures of “American Idol.” The network isn’t planning many changes in coming months. “Star Search” returns on Saturday nights starting Jan. 17.

After the February sweeps, “The Stones,” a comedy originally planned for last fall, will finally air, perhaps in the Wednesday “Becker” slot. A futuristic legal drama, “Century City,” from “Quiz Show” writer Paul Attanasio, also is expected to join the schedule at some point.

Tops with

young adults

NBC: The network started the fall with two of the season’s most high-profile flops, the British remake “Coupling” on Thursdays, and the Sunday night Rob Lowe show, “The Lyon’s Den.” But the new “Las Vegas” is performing solidly on Monday nights, and new fall sitcoms “Whoopi” and “Happy Family” have battled it out to remain on the schedule after slow starts.

Going into the season’s second half, NBC retains the lead among young adults, but CBS and Fox are close behind and even ABC has closed the gap. Nonetheless, Zucker said, “We feel very comfortable with where everything sits.” He insisted the networks’ audience loss this season has been overblown. “Obviously we would prefer not to be down,” he said, “but it’s been nowhere near as dire as many reports have said.”

NBC is banking on lots of unscripted shows to round out the year. Besides the return of “Average Joe” and a couples’ version of “Fear Factor,” there’s “The Apprentice,” with young adults vying to work for Donald Trump. “The Restaurant” comes back, with follow-up episodes detailing the aftermath of the New York eatery’s rocky launch, chronicled over the summer.

In the scripted genre, NBC will revive “Crossing Jordan” from last season, and a comedy, “Come to Papa,” will likely find a time slot in March.

The end of the season will clearly belong to NBC. Although “Friends” has faded somewhat this season, loyal fans from the last decade are expected to rally in May, when the series wraps up for good. NBC is being coy about how drawn out the send-off will be.

At the back

of the pack

ABC: The struggling network remains at the back of the pack when it comes to the 18-to-49-year-old audience, despite some improvement in its comedy lineup this fall. ABC is more competitive this season than last, and executives have insisted they will stick largely with what they have, giving shows time to find an audience. “Even though ratings are down from last year,” said Jeff Bader, executive vice president overseeing scheduling, “we are seeing the benefits of leaving the schedule as stable as possible, and especially with ‘American Idol’ coming on, we don’t want to play with too much right now.”

Even “Karen Sisco,” which viewers tuned out earlier this season, will return sometime in March or April, after the drama about a Miami cop is retooled. Also returning is “NYPD Blue,” which took a break in December so ABC could introduce a new drama, “Line of Fire,” which has been only moderately successful.

On March 1, ABC will launch one of the few high-profile scripted series for mid-season, the 15-hour “Stephen King’s Kingdom Hospital,” which King describes as “ ‘ER’ crossed with ‘The Shining.’ ” There are also reruns of the second season of USA Network’s “Monk” starting Jan. 17.

But ABC, like other networks, will spend most of its energies promoting the return versions of its unscripted programs, from “The Bachelorette” to “Celebrity Mole Yucatan” and a new “Bachelor” in March. “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition,” which fared well in a single outing earlier this season, returns as a series Sundays at 8, beginning Feb. 15.

Later in the season, “The Big House,” a comedy starring Kevin Hart that was originally intended for the fall lineup, is waiting for a time slot, as is a drama, “The D.A.,” which stars Steven Weber and for which former Los Angeles Dist. Atty. Gil Garcetti is a creative consultant.

Making up for

fall’s losses

Fox: The network has the most to gain as January gets underway, after a disappointing start this fall. While its World Series telecasts did well, the new fall shows that followed didn’t. “Skin” didn’t draw viewers, despite a heavy promotional push during baseball, and viewers were uninterested in the second, European version of the unscripted marriage show “Joe Millionaire.” “The Ortegas,” a remake of Britain’s “The Kumars at No. 42” was canceled before it aired, while comedies “Luis” and “Wanda at Large” were canceled after their launch.

December brought a little better news. The comedy “Arrested Development,” a critical favorite, has started to gain some traction with viewers. Young adults tuned in to see Paris Hilton and Nicole Richie try their hand at rural living in “The Simple Life.”

Now, with “American Idol,” “Our biggest show is back on the schedule,” said Craig Erwich, executive vice president of programming. “Our schedule almost starts when it comes back on the air, it’s such a big centerpiece.” “Idol,” while expected to be a hit in its own right, should also funnel viewers to “The O.C.”

A new unscripted show, “My Big Fat Obnoxious Fiance,” begins Jan. 19, piggybacking on the launch of “Idol.” A show contestant tries to pass off another contestant to her family, pretending he is her fiance to win the monetary prize. But she’s not in on the joke that the fiance’s “family” is really a troupe of improvisational actors.

Last year at this time, Fox executives noted, the network was a full rating point behind NBC in the young-adult demographic but finished the season just two-tenths of a point behind. This year, the two networks are much closer.

In February, the comedy “Oliver Beene” returns on Sundays. Also ready for possible slots are a new comedy, “Cracking Up,” and two new dramas. “Wonderfalls” is about a girl who hears messages from inanimate animal figurines, while “Still Life” is narrated by a young man who watches his family cope with life after his murder. Fox hasn’t decided if or when they will air this season.

Erwich, noting the launch of “The O.C.” last summer, called mid-season “a weird notion for us. We’re year-round.” With an eye to this summer, Fox recently made the first drama pilot pickup of any network for next season, called “The Jury.”

The way back

after a tumble

The WB and UPN: With its target audience of young adults, the WB has had a tough fall, some of which it attributes to ongoing questions regarding Nielsen’s measurement of the 18-to-34-year-old crowd. Its biggest disappointment was the failure of the Sunday night high-drama “Tarzan,” which will be replaced this week by more down-to-earth unscripted fare, the return of the reality series “The Surreal Life.” That program will give way in March to the return of “High School Reunion.”

A comedy, “The Help,” arrives Friday nights in March from “Married

UPN was quick to pull “The Mullets,” but its Monday and Tuesday comedy lineup, including “Girlfriends” and “All of Us,” has shown some modest strength. “America’s Next Top Model” will return Jan. 13. A unique animated comedy, “Game Over,” about a family that lives in a video-game universe, is waiting for a time slot.

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Hopes for the future...

The major broadcast networks are revising their prime-time lineups over the next few weeks, introducing new programs and bringing back shows that have performed well, particularly reality series. Here is a top priority program for each network; returning series have an asterisk.

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ABC

“The Bachelorette”*

Time slot: 9-10 p.m. Wednesdays, premieres Jan. 14

Key cast: Meredith Phillips, a runner-up on the last installment of “The Bachelor,” and a bunch of guys, one of whom will likely be the next “Bachelor”

What it has: A winning pedigree

What it needs: For viewers to root for Phillips with the same gusto they felt for Trista Rehn

CBS

“Survivor: All-Stars”

Time slot: 8-9 p.m. Thursdays; premieres Feb. 1 after the Super Bowl

Key cast: Winners from the previous seven “Survivor” installments

What it has: Favorites from the long-running reality series

What it needs: Not much, although eventually this winning format is bound to grow tired, right?

NBC

“The Apprentice”

Time slot: 8-9 p.m. Wednesdays, starting Jan. 14; premieres 8:30-10 p.m. Thursday

Key cast: Donald Trump and 18 mogul wannabes

What it has: The telegenic real estate titan

What it needs: Viewers who care about the struggle to be his assistant

Fox

“American Idol”*

Time slot: 8-9 p.m. Tuesdays and 8:30-9 p.m. Wednesdays, starting Jan. 20 and 21. Special preview on Jan. 19

Key cast: Randy Jackson, left, Simon Cowell, center, Paula Abdul, Ryan Seacrest and dozens of lousy singers

What it has: Incredible buzz

What it needs: Contestants with charisma to match Kelly Clarkson’s and Clay Aiken’s

UPN

“America’s Next Top Model”*

Time slot: 9-10 p.m. Wednesdays; premieres Jan. 13.

Key cast: Tyra Banks and a dozen other beautiful women

What it has: The aforementioned baker’s dozen of eye candy, plus buzz from the first season

What it needs: Real viewers to go along with that great buzz

WB

“The Surreal Life”*

Time slot: 9-10 p.m., premieres Sunday

Key cast: Erik Estrada, left, Ron Jeremy, Tammy Faye Messner, Rob Van Winkle (Vanilla Ice), Trishelle and Traci Bingham.

What it has: An interesting mix of participants

What it needs: Fireworks

-- Elizabeth Jensen

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...And mistakes of the past

With a raft of new television shows scheduled to premiere in the next couple of months, here’s a rundown of what’s new, what’s worked so far in the 2003-04 season and what hasn’t for the top six networks.

ABC

Shows launched in September: 7

Shows launched Oct.-Dec.: 1 (“Line of Fire”)

Shows canceled since September: “L.A. Dragnet” (with Ethan Embry, far left, and Ed O’Neill); “Karen Sisco” was pulled for retooling.

Network high points: “According to Jim” has become a bona fide hit in its third season, and other comedies are holding their own. “The Bachelor” is ranked 17th overall to date this season.

Network low points: Its highest rated new series, “I’m With Her,” is ranked only 45th so far this season. Moving “The Wonderful World of Disney” from Sunday to Saturday night has been a rankings bust.

CBS

Shows launched in September: 6

Shows launched Oct.-Dec.: None

Shows pulled since September: “The Brotherhood of Poland, N.H.” (with Chris Penn, far left, Randy Quaid and John Carroll Lynch)

Network high points: Plenty. With “Two and a Half Men” and “Cold Case,” CBS has the top-ranked new comedy and drama, respectively. “Survivor: Pearl Islands” breathed life into the franchise.

Network low points: Series are doing fine, but movies and specials -- particularly those involving Ronald Reagan and Michael Jackson -- have had problems.

NBC

Shows launched in September: 6

Shows launched Oct.-Dec.: 2 (“Average Joe,” “Tracy Morgan Show”)

Shows pulled since September: “Coupling,” “The Lyon’s Den”* (with Rob Lowe, left) and second-year series “Boomtown”

Network high points: “Las Vegas” is emerging as a solid hit against stiff competition. Thursday remains “Must-See.”

Network low points: ... albeit for fewer viewers, drawn by CBS’ hits. “Miss Match” and “Whoopi” have thus far failed to live up to expectations.

Fox

Shows launched in September: None (“The O.C.” premiered in August.)

Shows launched Oct.- Dec.: 6 (“Arrested Development,” “Skin” (with Olivia Wilde, far left, and D.J. Cotrona), “A Minute With Stan Hooper,” “Tru Calling,” “Luis” and “The Simple Life”)

Shows pulled since September: “Luis” and “Skin” (“The Ortegas” was announced for the fall lineup, but was canceled before it aired.)

Network high points: “The O.C.” is promising and “Arrested Development” is showing signs of life. Oh, and “American Idol” returns in two weeks.

Network low points: The misfire of “Skin”; even returning comedies are struggling.

UPN

Shows launched in September: 5

Shows launched Oct.-Dec.: None

Shows pulled since September: “The Mullets” (with Michael Weaver, left, and David Hornsby)

Network high points: “Eve” and “All of Us” are promising newcomers. “Enterprise” is showing signs of life in its third season.

Network low points: No break-out hits, and the cancellation of “The Mullets.”

The WB

Shows launched in September: 6

Shows launched Oct.-Dec.: None

Shows pulled since September: “Tarzan”* (with Travis Fimmel, left)

Network high points: “7th Heaven,” “Everwood,” “Reba” and “Smallville” are all solid performers.

Network low points: The quick cancellation of “Tarzan,” and an overall steep drop in network viewership.

* -- Series is technically on “hiatus” but isn’t expected to return.

-- Susan King