Watershed Moment for Growth Policy

For years, activist Lynne Plambeck has been Santa Clarita’s self-described Cassandra, warning that the development in this pleasant, arid valley was outstripping the water supply.

Now, after she and two allies captured the majority of seats on a tiny water district board, the perennial critic finds herself in position to put her ideas into action.

In this growth-friendly stretch of north Los Angeles County, many are reacting with panic.

Tonight, the board of the Newhall County Water District -- which supplies water to about 8,500 customers -- will consider rejecting the planning document that estimates the available water supplies for the entire valley, a move that could halt development within the district.

Water is suddenly Santa Clarita’s most potent issue, one that turns on a question making bigger waves statewide: How optimistic should predictions of future California water supplies be?

Environmentalists argue that rosy projections can lead to a scenario of too many houses and not enough water -- a recipe for crisis during prolonged droughts. But some contend that activists often raise undue fears about water as a convenient way to stop development.

The issue has led to changes at California’s Department of Water Resources, which last year agreed to more accurately report the amount of state water available to local planning agencies. The changes were part of a settlement with environmentalists, who claimed in a lawsuit that the department’s water projections were too generous.

Meanwhile, debates over water projections have erupted at a number of other water boards, making the once obscure bodies increasingly important as the state struggles to square a growing population with its water supply.

“The political profile of water boards is growing statewide,” said Brent Haddad, an environmental studies professor at UC Santa Cruz. “Every aspect of water management is becoming more political and contentious.”

Plambeck and her allies’ more modest water projections for the Santa Clarita area worry opponents, who fear that the new figures will be used to deny water hookups to a number of upcoming projects.

Santa Clarita City Council members are concerned that the resolution may stymie plans for a $3-million community center, an industrial park promising 7,000 new jobs and the redevelopment of downtown Newhall’s original commercial core. Officials at the William S. Hart Union High School District fear the revised projections could block badly needed new schools.

Despite the criticism -- including a City Council resolution condemning the revised plan -- Plambeck and her allies vow to hold firm.

“This is just good planning,” said Plambeck, who is also president of the activist group Santa Clarita Organization for Planning the Environment. “You don’t build a project if you don’t have enough water.”

Plambeck’s proposal boils down to a belief that the area’s main water plan ignores groundwater pollution, encourages overpumping of the Santa Clara River and its aquifer, and offers an unrealistic picture of future allocations from the California Aqueduct, which shuttles water to Southern California from wetter regions in the north.

The 2000 plan was produced by consultants under the supervision of four of the valley’s water agencies -- including the Newhall district, which approved the plan while Plambeck was part of the board’s minority.

The plan states that the valley should be able to get 103,000 to 181,000 acre-feet of water in a normal year. (An acre-foot is 326,000 gallons, enough water to supply two average families for a year.) Plambeck said she believed the availability was more like 64,000 acre-feet per year.

But projections aren’t the whole story. Perspective is also important.

Take the pollution problem. A number of area wells that suck water from one deep local aquifer have been shut down due to the discovery of ammonium perchlorate, an ingredient of rocket fuel, Plambeck said. She said any water from those wells should not be included in the projections until the wells are cleaned up.

But Barbara Dore, a Plambeck opponent on the board, said there was a plan to clean up the polluted wells. In fact, she said, they could be pumping as early as next year.

“That’s true that you can’t drink it today,” Dore said. “But [the numbers] are for planning purposes. And what’s the definition of a plan? Something you’re not going to do today.”

In another challenge, Plambeck questions the volume available from the California Aqueduct, which supplies about half of the valley’s water supply.

According to the current plan, the valley can receive a maximum of 95,000 acre-feet of state water per year from the aqueduct.

But Plambeck said the state couldn’t always guarantee that much water for Santa Clarita. In fact, in 1991 and 2001, the state promised Santa Clarita less than 50% of its full allotment.

Dan Masnada, general manager of the Castaic Lake Water Agency, said the agency had begun working on plans to store extra water in wet years in special underground banks as insurance against dry spells.

Agency officials are frustrated that the environmental group Friends of the Santa Clara River has filed two lawsuits over the water insurance plans. Plambeck was a board member of that group until November.

“We’re trying to get new water sources,” said agency spokeswoman Mary Lou Cotton. “Every time we do, we get sued.”

Another Friends of the Santa Clara River lawsuit, filed in conjunction with the Sierra Club, also challenged the current plan.

The lawsuit was unsuccessful, but is being appealed, Cotton said.

Plambeck, who owns a small film recycling business in Burbank, said she hoped to influence water issues countywide.

She recently announced she will challenge incumbent Miike Antonovich for the Board of Supervisors’ 5th District seat for the second time since 1992, when she finished fourth.

One plank of her campaign, according to her website, is that “better water planning and accurate water supply reporting MUST occur in Los Angeles County before we reach crisis level.”

The water district board meeting will begin at 6:30 p.m. at Hart Hall, 24151 N. San Fernando Road, Newhall.