Shaq Takes East’s Chances Beyond Slim, None

Notice anything different around here?

The Lakers, as we knew them, are no more and the East is back, or at least it has three real contenders with Shaquille O’Neal in Miami, the defending champions in Detroit and a big, young team in Indiana.

To be sure, the Shaq who went East in 2004 is not the force he was when he came West in 1996. Now he has something to prove, as far as conditioning and desire go. After impressing everyone with his new, slimmed-down body, he sat out the first three exhibitions with a hamstring pull. That meant he’d missed the exhibition opener in three of the last four seasons.

After bashing Kobe Bryant all preseason and blaming him for everything that went wrong in his life, O’Neal says he’s ready to go back to averaging 28 a game, or so. That’s something else he has to prove, that he has that much left.

Nevertheless, he’s still the great equation-changer. When O’Neal went West, it became a super-conference and the East turned into a collection of dwarfs. Now, East teams are scrambling to get big players again and the league no longer tilts West.

However, after the Pistons, Pacers and Heat, the East is still weak. There may not be a single West team that wouldn’t make the playoffs in the East.

If there are no super-teams in the West anymore, there are a lot of very good ones and not a single bad one in sight.

This will make it a hard time locally, where the good news is the city series will be more competitive than it used to be.

Even if the Lakers were to max out their potential, it’s hard to see them winning more than 50 games, which might not even get them into the top four, so they’d have home court in the first round of the playoffs.

Of course, now there’s a worst-case scenario, in which they don’t even make the playoffs.

Then there are the Clippers, who pursued Kobe Bryant for a year and were left with nothing to show for it. They have a roster loaded with good, big, young, hard-working players and no chance at the playoffs.

You may have noticed the NBA has a newfangled six-division alignment, which proves one thing: The people in the league office have way too much time on their hands.

The only difference is that someone from each division has to make the playoffs, so the worst of the three first-place teams in each conference becomes the No. 3 seed.

Of course, by the second half of the season, many newspapers will be ignoring the division alignment, as they always have, and running the standings by conference to make it easier to follow the race. Now they’ll just have to put asterisks by two teams to explain why they’re in second and third place with inferior records, rather than one.

Not that little changes mean anything around here, where there have been gigantic changes.

For eight seasons, this was the center of the NBA universe. The Lakers were the marquee team of marquee teams and never more than last season when they started four future Hall of Famers amid the frenzy surrounding Bryant.

In a league that occasions little excitement in New York, Boston and Chicago, they were the darlings of a glamorous mega-market. They were a headline-making machine that specialized in dramatic comebacks in seasons and games.

They even had a player -- Robert Horry -- whose sole role seemed to be making miracle shots. And they went out in style, after a thrilling postseason that included their rally from 0-2 against the Spurs, with Tim Duncan and Derek Fisher trading miracles in the pivotal Game 5, in the greatest finish in NBA history.

Of course, that was forgotten when the Lakers were upset in the Finals, and that was eclipsed when the Lakers broke apart in the summer.

Now the excitement is elsewhere. We had more than our share and it’s someone else’s turn.

A team-by-team look in predicted order of finish for the Western Conference, below, and Eastern Conference, on D9.

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The Great Divide

The NBA’s realignment adds a 30th team (Charlotte) and moves one (New Orleans) from the Eastern to the Western Conference. The new divisions and alignment:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

ATLANTIC DIVISION

Boston Celtics

New Jersey Nets

New York Knicks

Philadelphia 76ers

Toronto Raptors

CENTRAL DIVISION

Chicago Bulls

Cleveland Cavaliers

Detroit Pistons

Indiana Pacers

Milwaukee Bucks

SOUTHEAST DIVISION

Atlanta Hawks

Charlotte Bobcats

Miami Heat

Orlando Magic

Washington Wizards

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WESTERN CONFERENCE

SOUTHWEST DIVISION

Dallas Mavericks

Houston Rockets

Memphis Grizzlies

New Orleans Hornets

San Antonio Spurs

NORTHWEST DIVISION

Denver Nuggets

Minnesota Timberwolves

Portland Trail Blazers

Seattle SuperSonics

Utah Jazz

PACIFIC DIVISION

Clippers

Golden State Warriors

Lakers

Phoenix Suns

Sacramento Kings

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SAN ANTONIO

*--* 1

SPURS Projected Starters G Tony Parker G Manu Ginobili F Bruce Bowen F Tim Duncan C Rasho Nesterovic

*--*

* 2003-04 record: 57-25 (2nd in West).

* Offense: 91.5 (19). Defense: 84.3 (1, tie).

* Coming: Brent Barry, Tony Massenburg, No. 1 pick Beno Udrih.

* Going: Hedo Turkoglu, Kevin Willis, Charlie Ward, Ron Mercer, Jason Hart.

* Outlook: Meet the new boss, not the same as the old boss. With the Lakers gone, the Spurs become the team everyone knows they have to beat. In the midst of a rebuilding program after winning a title in 1999, the Spurs won another in 2003, and now, with only Tim Duncan and Malik Rose there from the ’99 champs, they’re looking pretty much rebuilt. Last spring, Phil Jackson challenged the Spurs to beat them from outside as the Lakers eliminated them. That won’t work as well with three-point ace Barry taking the shots.

* Prediction: They’re not dominating, but they’re the best.

MINNESOTA

*--* 2

TIMBERWOLVES Projected Starters G Sam Cassell G Latrell Sprewell F Trenton Hassell F Kevin Garnett C Ervin Johnson

*--*

* 2003-04 record: 58-24 (1st in West).

* Offense: 94.5 (10). Defense: 89.1 (7).

* Coming: Eddie Griffin.

* Going: Gary Trent.

* Outlook: They’re not small-market wretches anymore. Having suffered every catastrophe modern basketball could visit on them, from J.R. Rider to Stephon Marbury to David Stern’s Judge Dredd decree, the Timberwolves have steadily climbed into the circle of elite teams. Last season they finally got out of the first round and gave the Lakers trouble in a six-game West finals, with little from Sam Cassell, with Troy Hudson out most of the season and Michael Olowokandi giving them next to nothing. Now they’re a power with a $68-million payroll, No. 5 in the league, and their best may be yet to come.

* Prediction: All they need is better health, and, for once, some luck.

SACRAMENTO

*--* 3

KINGS Projected Starters G Mike Bibby G Doug Christie F Peja Stojakovic F Chris Webber C Brad Miller

*--*

* 2003-04 record: 55-27 (4th in West).

* Offense: 102.8 (2). Defense: 97.8 (25).

* Coming: Greg Ostertag, Courtney Alexander, Matt Barnes.

* Going: Vlade Divac, Anthony Peeler, Rodney Buford, Tony Massenburg.

* Outlook: After all those years when they had bad breaks but good chemistry, they developed issues last season. After a 43-15 start, Chris Webber came back limping and they went down the drain. Webber pointed a finger at Peja Stojakovic, who then asked to be traded, and Divac, who was like their den father, left. Nevertheless, Bobby Jackson is back, and Webber looks closer to being Chris Webber, so they’re not done yet.

* Prediction: Without issues, at the top of their game, they can play with anyone. Now to see if they’re ever there again.

HOUSTON

*--* 4

ROCKETS Projected Starters G Charlie Ward G Tracy McGrady F Jim Jackson F Juwan Howard C Yao Ming

*--*

* 2003-4 record: 45-37 (7th in West).

* Offense: 89.8 (25); Defense: 88.0 (5).

* Coming: Tracy McGrady, Juwan Howard, Ty Lue, Bob Sura, Dikembe Mutombo, Charlie Ward, Ryan Bowen.

* Going: Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley, Kelvin Cato, Eric Piatkowski, Adrian Griffin.

* Outlook: Jeff Van Gundy’s arrival signaled the end of their knucklehead backcourt, which struggled with his structured offense. McGrady must prove he’s not last season’s sulky quitter, but he’s still a monster talent who’ll be more effective in a real program with a 7-foot-5 center and a real coach on his back. They had to scramble to re-assemble a roster, and they’re not done yet. Point guard is a problem with journeymen Ward, Lue and Sura.

* Prediction: The game’s new best tandem of Yao and McGrady won’t win as much as the former best tandem, but will get along better.

MEMPHIS

*--* 5

GRIZZLIES Projected Starters G Jason Williams G Mike Miller F James Posey F Pau Gasol C Lorenzen Wright

*--*

* 2003-04 record: 50-32 (6th in West).

* Offense: 96.7 (7). Defense: 94.3 (15).

* Coming: Brian Cardinal.

* Going: No one.

* Outlook: Team President Jerry West took them from 23 wins, when he got there in 2002, to last season’s stunning 50. The hard part is figuring where to go from here. The Grizzlies defied common wisdom by winning big without a star player or much size, and they’re bringing the same team back. The management team, however, is another matter. West is in the third season of his four-year deal and, typically, just hoping to make it through it. Coach Hubie Brown, his fellow miracle worker, is 71 and working strictly year to year.

* Prediction: They need a star, a big man or both, but with its old-school leadership, it’s one of the few young teams that knows what it’s doing.

DALLAS

*--* 6

MAVERICKS Projected Starters G Jason Terry G Marquis Daniels F Michael Finley F Dirk Nowitzki C Erick Dampier

*--*

* 2003-04 record: 52-30, (5th in West).

* Offense: 105.2 (1). Defense: 100.8 (28).

* Coming: Jason Terry, Erick Dampier, Jerry Stackhouse, Dan Dickau, Calvin Booth, No. 1 picks Devin Harris and Pavel Podkolzine.

* Going: Steve Nash, Antoine Walker, Antawn Jamison, Christian Laettner, Eduardo Najera, Travis Best, Tony Delk, Danny Fortson, Scott Williams.

* Outlook: Hyperactive Mark Cuban managed to keep from firing Don Nelson and settled for turning over the roster instead, starting with his surprising decision to let Nash go. With Dampier, they finally have size. The Warriors were afraid his improvement was strictly tied to free agency, but Cuban just bet $67 million that he has reached a new level.

* Prediction: Let’s see what The Benefactor does when they sink this far.

DENVER

*--* 7

NUGGETS Projected Starters G Andre Miller G Voshon Lenard F Carmelo Anthony F Kenyon Martin C Marcus Camby

*--*

* 2003-04 record: 43-39 (8).

* Offense: 97.2 (5). Defense: 96.1 (19).

* Coming: Kenyon Martin, Greg Buckner.

* Going: Michael Doleac, Chris Andersen, Jon Barry, Ryan Bowen.

* Outlook: Happily for Carmelo Anthony, whose summer included a fight in a club, an Olympics chained to the bench and a marijuana charge, it ended before he landed in jail and they threw away the key. Anthony’s game, at least, was grown-up enough to help them go from 17 wins to 43. Then the Nets let them have Martin, although he’s on the emotional side, himself. Coach Jeff Bzdelik almost was fired last season when players (led by Anthony?) turned on him. Bzdelik was kept after they made the playoffs but was left dangling for weeks, suggesting he’s still in trouble.

* Prediction: They may be volatile, but they’re good too.

LAKERS

*--* 8

LAKERS Projected Starters G Chucky Atkins G Kobe Bryant F Lamar Odom F Brian Grant C Vlade Divac

*--*

* 2003-04 record: 56-26 (3rd in West).

* Offense: 98.2 (3). Defense: 94.3 (16).

* Coming: Coach Rudy Tomjanovich, Lamar Odom, Caron Butler, Brian Grant, Chucky Atkins, Chris Mihm, Jumaine Jones, No. 1 pick Sasha Vujacic.

* Going: Phil Jackson, Shaquille O’Neal, Gary Payton, Derek Fisher, Rick Fox.

* Outlook: For those of us who kept predicting the end of their world, it’s here. Bryant drove them to a 6-2 exhibition mark, playing heavy minutes, but there are things to work out with Odom still on the perimeter, rather than the post where he turned it around with the Heat running the offense through him. Bryant has made more sacrifices than he’s given credit for but has never learned how, or been asked, to play off the ball.

* Prediction: On the bright side, their free-throw shooting will be better.

UTAH

*--* 9

JAZZ Projected Starters G Carlos Arroyo G Gordan Giricek F Andrei Kirilenko F Carlos Boozer C Mehmet Okur

*--*

* 2003-04 record: 42-40 (9th in West).

* Offense: 88.7 (27). Defense: 89.9 (9).

* Coming: Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur.

* Going: Greg Ostertag, Tom Gugliotta, Mo Williams, Mikki Moore.

* Outlook: Whoever these guys are, they’re not going away. To everyone’s surprise, instead of falling to 10 to 20 wins after Karl Malone and John Stockton left, they were still competitive and stayed that way after losing leading scorer Matt Harpring. Now Harpring is back and they’ve upgraded their front line with Ostertag leaving and Boozer arriving. Jerry Sloan, long one of the game’s most respected coaches, elected to stay around after Malone and Stockton left. His teams still do what he says, so don’t expect them to stop now.

* Prediction: If anyone falters, look out for them.

PORTLAND

*--* 10

TRAILBLAZERS Projected Starters G Damon Stoudamire G Derek Anderson F Shareef Abdur-Rahim F Zach Randolph C Theo Ratliff

*--*

* 2003-04 record: 41-41 (10th in West).

* Offense: 90.7 (21). Defense: 92.0 (12).

* Coming: Nick Van Exel, Joel Pryzbilla, No. 1 picks Sebastian Telfair and Sergei Monia.

* Going: Dale Davis.

* Outlook: For the first time since the first lottery in 1985, the Trail Blazers were in it, meaning they were the last team to miss the playoffs in that span. However, they’ve been fringe players lately and last season began weeding out their troublemakers. Of course, as Qyntel Woods showed this fall, allegedly finding yet another way to break the law (engaging in dogfights), the beat goes on. This is a work in progress with parts that don’t fit, such as power forwards Zach Randolph, who’s staying, and Shareef Abdur-Rahim, who is not.

* Prediction: Van Exel is the wild card. If he’s as good coming off the bench as he was in Dallas, watch out for them too.

NEW ORLEANS

*--* 11

HORNETS Projected Starters G Baron Davis G David Wesley F George Lynch F P.J. Brown C Jamaal Magloire

*--*

* 2003-04 record: 41-41 (5th in East, tie).

* Offense: 91.8 (17). Defense: 91.9 (11).

* Coming: Coach Byron Scott, Rodney Rogers, Chris Andersen, No. 1 pick J.R. Smith.

* Going: Coach Tim Floyd, Stacey Augmon, Steve Smith, Robert Traylor, Courtney Alexander.

* Outlook: New Orleans is now an official disaster area with the Hornets moving West and saying goodbye to the playoffs as attendance drops and Baron Davis muses about escaping. Before he signed a long-term deal, he was always saying he wanted to get back home. Now his agent is saying it again, putting Davis at odds with owner George Shinn. Jamal Mashburn is out for the year, which will help chemistry but not the offense. On the bright side, rookie Smith, an athlete who can shoot, tore up the preseason.

* Prediction: Bad career move for Scott.

PHOENIX

*--* 12

SUNS Projected Starters G Steve Nash G Quentin Richardson F Shawn Marion F Amare Stoudemire C Jake Voskuhl

*--*

* 2003-04 record: 29-53 (13th in West).

* Offense: 94.2 (11). Defense: 97.9 (26).

* Coming: Steve Nash, Quentin Richardson, Steven Hunter.

* Going: Antonio McDyess.

* Outlook: The Suns are in transition, with Jerry and Bryan Colangelo now merely part of a committee that runs the team, along with incoming owner Robert Sarver and his point man, Steve Kerr. Kerr is close to Phil Jackson, so keep that in mind when Sarver takes over in 2007. Nash’s three-point shooting spaces the floor, which makes him a rare asset. There’s a lot of talent, but it’s young and, except for Amare Stoudemire, 6-8 and under. Coach Mike D’Antoni is going small with Stoudemire often at center, but that’s hard in the West, where even also-rans are big and deep.

* Prediction: They’re one player away from being a factor again, but it’s a big player.

GOLDEN STATE

*--* 13

WARRIORS Projected Starters G Derek Fisher G Jason Richardson F Mike Dunleavy F Troy Murphy C Adonal Foyle

*--*

* 2003-04 record: 37-45 (11th in West, tie).

* Offense: 93.3 (13). Defense: 94.0 (14)

* Coming: GM Chris Mullin, Coach Mike Montgomery, Fisher, Dale Davis, Najera, No. 1 pick Andris Biedrins.

* Going: GM Garry St. Jean, Coach Eric Musselman, Dampier, Van Exel, Cardinal, Dickau, Avery Johnson.

* Outlook: GMs and coaches come and go, but Chris Cohan remains. He’s the shallow-pockets owner who took over in 1994. Musselman got them to try again, going 75-89 in his two seasons, compared with 38-126 in the previous two, but his players didn’t like his hard-driving style. Now they’re breaking in Montgomery.On the bright side, they’re very deep with Jason Richardson and Mike Dunleavy Jr. coming on. Montgomery can go 10 deep, and will.

* Prediction: On the realistic side, that’s still not enough.

CLIPPERS

*--* 14

CLIPPERS Projected Starters G Marko Jaric G Kerry Kittles F Corey Maggette F Elton Brand C Chris Kaman

*--*

* 2003-04 record: 28-54 (14th in West).

* Offense: 94.8 (9). Defense: 99.4 (27).

* Coming: Kerry Kittles, Zeljko Rebraca, Mikki Moore, Mamadou N’diaye, No. 1 pick Shaun Livingston.

* Going: Quentin Richardson, Keyon Dooling, Melvin Ely, Eddie House.

* Outlook: If this were another team, you’d like its chances with so many big, young, hard-working players. Of course, this one has never been able to build incrementally before. The Kobe Bryant dream was too good to be true. Mike Dunleavy spent last season without a real point guard and, in a daring move for a Clipper coach, went for a high school player. Livingston just turned 19 and is being brought along slowly, which means they hope he can be in rotation now and starting by season’s end.

* Prediction: Still a tad early for a breakthrough but keep an eye on Livingston.

SEATTLE

*--* 15

SUPERSONICS Projected Starters G Luke Ridnour G Ray Allen F Rashard Lewis F Danny Fortson C Vitaly Potapenko

*--*

* 2003-4 record: 37-45 (11th in West, tie).

* Offense: 97.1 (6). Defense: 97.8 (24).

* Coming: Danny Fortson, No. 1 pick Robert Swift.

* Going: Brent Barry, Calvin Booth.

* Outlook: Starbucks magnate Howard Schultz insists his team is a contender. The Sonics are basically Ray Allen, a three-point ace, and a bunch of 6-10 guys such as Rashard Lewis and Vladimir Radmanovic, who want to stand outside and shoot too. That’s a lot of threes. Outspoken Coach Nate McMillan is popular but in trouble. He was already grumping around in the preseason when he wanted to install a tough, George Karl-type defense and most of his veterans were out resting boo-boos. Schultz has to choose between giving Allen $126 million, or letting him go and starting over with $20 million worth of cap space.

* Prediction: Bet on the cap space.