Studying the New Math

Some are stacked neatly on Jim Tracy’s desk. Others are strewn around the conference room where Paul DePodesta and his staff meet each morning.

They are the bibles of player performance analysis, books written by experts and crammed with statistics and projections. The most highly regarded are written by Bill James, Stats Inc. and Baseball Prospectus, and all three conclude that the Dodger offense will be worse than last season.

The batting average will drop and home runs will be fewer. So will stolen bases. Particularly alarming is that the on-base percentage and slugging percentage -- the statistics the Dodger brass value above all others -- are projected to dip.

DePodesta, in his second year as Dodger general manager, is revered by many of the number crunchers who did the projections, but he disputes their predictions. He distills traditional and innovative statistics into a bottom line that measures the number of runs a given player produces with his bat and prevents with his glove.

“We have our own projections,” he said. “We see our club as similar to last year. Our runs scored should be in the same neighborhood.”

Last season’s total was 761. Opponents scored 684, and the differential is a primary reason the Dodgers went 93-69 and won their first National League West title since 1995.

The Dodger batting average last season was .262. The on-base percentage was .332 and the slugging percentage was .432. The statistical gurus predict that the batting average will fall to .250, the on-base percentage to .323 and the slugging percentage to .416. All three numbers would have been in the bottom half of the National League last season.

Tracy doesn’t need fancy figures to understand that the offense might have to manufacture enough runs to win.

“Hopefully we are able to do enough offensively, especially at the bottom of the order,” he said. “But what I like is that these guys have a real understanding of the importance of execution and situational at-bats.

“With our pitching depth and outstanding bullpen, everything could fall into place very nicely.”

The experts project improved Dodger pitching -- and the numbers put up last year were near the top of the league. This year’s staff should walk fewer batters and give up fewer home runs while racking up about the same number of strikeouts.

The lineup is rife with pressing issues, however. Foremost among them is whether third baseman Jose Valentin and first baseman Hee-Seop Choi will hit well enough to stay in the lineup.

Valentin’s batting average has dropped four years in a row to a career-low .216 last season. Though he hit at least 25 home runs each of the last five years with the Chicago White Sox, his power numbers are expected to decrease at Dodger Stadium.

Choi needs only to duplicate his spring performance of a .220 batting average, .371 on-base percentage and .460 slugging percentage, DePodesta said. The average starting major league first baseman last season had an on-base percentage of .372, a slugging percentage of .497 and a salary of $7.9 million. Choi will make $351,000, so anything close to average numbers from him represents a bargain.

There are other questions. Who will play third base when Valentin, 35, needs a day off or is struggling offensively? DePodesta had Antonio Perez penciled in to platoon with Valentin, but Perez, a second baseman by trade, has not adjusted well to third.

Can leadoff batter Cesar Izturis reach base consistently? He didn’t walk the entire spring and his career on-base percentage of .293 is well below the league average of .333. Last year he broke out with 193 hits, but his on-base percentage still was only .330.

Will the players who form the core of the batting order -- J.D. Drew, Jeff Kent and Milton Bradley -- require frequent days off? None played more than 145 games last season, and if each is out of the lineup for 15 to 20 games again, the team’s power could be severely compromised.

When will left fielder Jayson Werth return from the disabled list? He broke a bone in his wrist March 2 and has yet to hit a pitched ball. Rookie Jason Repko, who is batting .343 in the spring, should be an able replacement until Werth returns.

Pitching should keep the Dodgers close on days the offense struggles. The overriding uncertainty is the health of Brad Penny, whose rehabilitation from a biceps nerve injury has been encouraging but excruciatingly slow. He will begin the season on the disabled list.

Depth in the starting rotation, once considered a strength, is tenuous. DePodesta traded left-hander Kazuhisa Ishii, who won 36 games the last three seasons, to the New York Mets for catcher Jason Phillips two weeks ago when the situation behind the plate reached a crisis point. Also, left-hander Wilson Alvarez will begin the season on the disabled list while recovering from shoulder tendinitis.

Derek Lowe, Odalis Perez and Jeff Weaver are reliable starters. But the Dodgers are counting on Scott Erickson, 37, to continue the excellent form he displayed during the spring. Since 1999, Erickson is 11-24 with a 6.42 earned-run average and has missed two full seasons because of injury.

All four starters induce more than the usual number of ground balls. The Dodger infield was a concern going into the spring, but Choi, Kent and Valentin are considered slightly above average and Izturis is a Gold Glove winner.

The fifth starter until Penny’s return will be journeyman right-hander Elmer Dessens. Erickson and Dessens need only to get into the sixth inning to have done their job. The excellent Dodger bullpen can take it from there. Besides closer Eric Gagne, who has been nearly unhittable for three seasons, setup man Yhency Brazoban and middle relievers Giovanni Carrara and Duaner Sanchez are reliable. Left-handed sidearm pitcher Kelly Wunsch offers a different look.

All in all, Tracy says he is excited about beginning the season with the team DePodesta has provided. There are 12 new players on the 25-man roster, but when Penny, Alvarez and Werth return from the disabled list, the number drops to nine.

“We can talk about uncertainties, but you can go into any clubhouse in baseball and see the same uncertainties,” Tracy said. “I like what I’ve seen the last couple weeks of the spring. We are doing the little things that championship teams do well.”

DePodesta probably will refrain from making a major acquisition until at least June. He quotes his mentor, Oakland Athletic General Manager Billy Beane, who says that the first two months of the season are for evaluating the team, the next two months for improving it, and the last two months for making a run at a pennant.

“There are some areas we are aware that we have to keep our eyes on,” he said. “But we are committed to giving these guys a chance.”

When the time comes for changes, he says the Dodgers are in a position of strength.

“Our best solution might be someone in our organization because of the quality of our farm system,” DePodesta said. “Or we can use minor league players to acquire major league talent. And we have financial flexibility. That’s a pretty good trifecta.”

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

THE BREAKDOWN

INFIELD

Shortstop Cesar Izturis is the only sure thing with a glove. And veteran second baseman Jeff Kent is the only sure thing with a bat. Kent’s defense during the spring was better than advertised and the drop-off from last season’s second baseman, Alex Cora, should be minimal. The corner positions could be problematic. First baseman Hee-Seop Choi is a question mark. Olmedo Saenz is an adequate backup and a good pinch-hitter. Third baseman Jose Valentin fields well and is a veteran clubhouse presence. However, his steadily declining batting average isn’t going to make anyone forget Adrian Beltre. Antonio Perez is a good hitter whose defense at third is a liability. Norihiro Nakamura is an alternative at third, but he probably will begin the season at triple A.

OUTFIELD

A significant strength. Milton Bradley, J.D. Drew and Jayson Werth are excellent fielders and versatile offensive weapons. Exciting rookie Jason Repko fits the same mold and Ricky Ledee does everything well except hit for average. Problems could arise if Bradley or Drew miss playing time, which has been a pattern for both. The tenuous offense needs their bats every day. Repko and Ledee will fill in for Werth until his injured wrist heals. Bradley and Drew are interchangeable in center and right. Drew has deferred to Bradley, the incumbent in center, but should Drew’s surgically repaired knee give him problems, Bradley would move to right.

CATCHING

The only significant spring-training transaction brought in Jason Phillips from the New York Mets, a necessary upgrade. Phillips has shown signs of regaining his 2003 form, when he batted .298 with 11 home runs. Backup Paul Bako is a veteran who works well with pitchers but will not provide much offense. Prospect Dioner Navarro will play every day at triple A and can develop at a comfortable pace because of the presence of Phillips.

STARTING PITCHING

Much hinges on the unpredictable health of Brad Penny, whose deliberate progress in spring training leaves the Dodgers no choice but to put him on the disabled list. Holdover Jeff Weaver and newcomer Derek Lowe are reliable sinkerball pitchers. Odalis Perez, a left-hander, also should contribute his share of quality starts. Scott Erickson was the most pleasant surprise of the spring, earning a berth in the rotation. Because Kazuhisa Ishii was traded for Phillips, the No. 5 spot is a grab-bag that includes journeyman Elmer Dessens, Wilson Alvarez and Ryan Rupe until Penny returns.

BULLPEN

This is the only area the Dodgers have a decisive edge over their NL West competition. Eric Gagne’s knee sprain caused a mild scare, but there is no reason to believe he won’t again be the best closer in baseball. Hard-throwing Yhency Brazoban is an ideal setup man and veterans Giovanni Carrara, Duaner Sanchez and Alvarez are adept at eating up the sixth and seventh innings. The Dodgers are beginning the season with 12 pitchers. Newcomers include left-handed situational reliever Kelly Wunsch, rookie D.J. Houlton and either Rupe, Buddy Carlyle or Steve Schmoll.

BENCH

General Manager Paul DePodesta remade the bench last season, and several of those players are back. Saenz is the top right-handed pinch-hitter and Jason Grabowski must fill the void left by retired Robin Ventura from the left side. Ledee is a valuable pinch-runner, defensive replacement and left-handed pinch-hitter. Perez provides speed and an aggressive bat from the right side. If the Dodgers go from 12 to 11 pitchers when Penny is activated, a bench spot could open up for Nakamura. Another option is to keep Repko, although DePodesta would prefer to have him playing every day in triple A than have him sitting on the Dodger bench.

MANAGEMENT

DePodesta won’t hesitate to make changes if the team gets off to a slow start. He has a farm system loaded with prospects to offer as trade bait and has indicated the team could take on added payroll. Manager Jim Tracy has posted a winning record in each of his four seasons, going from an anonymous organization man into a rock of stability amid change. He is adept at handling the bullpen and has improved communication with key veterans.

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Roster

PITCHERS

*--* No. Name B/T Age 47 Wilson Alvarez* L/L 35 43 Yhency Brazoban R/R 24 58 Buddy Carlyle L/R 27 55 Giovanni Carrara R/R 37 46 Elmer Dessens R/R 34 37 Darren Dreifort* R/R 32 15 Scott Erickson R/R 37 38 Eric Gagne R/R 29 72 D.J. Houlton R/R 25 23 Derek Lowe R/R 31 31 Brad Penny* R/R 26 45 Odalis Perez L/L 27 51 Ryan Rupe R/R 30 50 Duaner Sanchez R/R 25 60 Steve Schmoll R/R 25 36 Jeff Weaver R/R 28 59 Kelly Wunsch L/L 33 CATCHERS 18 Paul Bako L/R 32 17 Jason Phillips R/R 28 INFIELDERS 5 Hee-Seop Choi L/L 26 3 Cesar Izturis S/R 25 12 Jeff Kent R/R 37 66 Norihiro Nakamura R/R 31 26 Antonio Perez R/R 25 8 Olmedo Saenz R/R 34 10 Jose Valentin L/R 35 OUTFIELDERS 21 Milton Bradley S/R 26 7 J.D. Drew L/R 29 6 Jason Grabowski L/R 28 33 Ricky Ledee L/L 31 75 Jason Repko R/R 24 28 Jayson Werth* R/R 25

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* Disabled list