Element of Surprise Still Keynote for PGA

Before Shaun Micheel, there was Rich Beem. Before them, there were Mark Brooks and Wayne Grady. They’re all major winners, if not major factors in golf since their breakthrough victories at the PGA Championship, which has earned a reputation as a coming-out party for first-time or only-time major champions.

But after wins by David Toms at Atlanta Athletic Club in 2001, Beem at Hazeltine in 2002 and Micheel at Oak Hill in 2003, some sense of order was restored when Vijay Singh won last year at Whistling Straits.

It was Singh’s third major title, and his victory seemed a fitting conclusion to a year that earned him his first PGA Tour player-of-the-year award, ending a five-year run by Tiger Woods.

And now, with the 87th PGA Championship starting here Thursday at Baltusrol Golf Club, it’s probably worth pointing out that there’s nothing certain when you’re handicapping the field, with the possible exception that, well, unexpected champions pop up in this tournament.

Woods, who has already won the Masters and the British Open this year, might take note that he is one of only three players to win the British Open and the PGA Championship in the same year. Woods did it in 2000. The others are Walter Hagen in 1924 and Nick Price in 1994.

If there is a long list of long hitters who have a chance to conquer Baltusrol, it’s also true that some of the bashers are better suited than others, with Woods and Singh topping the list. But there are more who could pose a serious argument. For the sake of discussion, here are a few suggestions ... feel free to call it a Super Eight. Or not.

* Woods: He’s No. 1 on the money list, No. 1 in the world and has won two majors this year. No one else is scoring better (69.25), making more birdies, scoring better on the back nine (tied for first at 34.63) or intimidating more players.

He has won four times this year, hasn’t been out of the top five since mid-May and has already passed the $50-million mark in career earnings. He’s playing a major he has already won twice, in 1999 and 2000, and with Baltusrol set up to favor the long hitters, it’s clear Woods has a good shot at doing it again.

* Singh: Numbingly consistent, with 13 top-10 finishes in 22 tournaments, including four victories, two seconds and two thirds. He won in January, April, May and July, missing June when he tied for sixth at the U.S. Open.

His key, like most everyone else’s, is his putting, in which Singh’s average ranks 48th. (Woods is tied for 12th.). What jumps out is that Singh is tied for second in greens in regulation (72.4%). Like Woods, he is also a two-time winner of this event, his 1998 triumph at Sahalee joining last year’s victory, and he is not intimidated by Woods, only haunted occasionally by what happens on the greens.

* Retief Goosen: He’s a two-time U.S. Open champion, but since he tied for third at the Masters, Goosen’s reputation as a heatproof major performer has taken a beating. That’s what happens after a fourth-round 81 at the U.S. Open and Friday and Sunday rounds of 73 and 74 at the British Open.

He drives the ball long enough -- averaging 293 yards -- but must putt better. He ranks 70th. And it would also help if he kept it together for four rounds.

* Phil Mickelson: He tied for sixth last year at Whistling Straits after closing with a 74 when he had a chance to win. This year, it’s been a tale of two seasons for him. Through the Masters, where he was 10th, Mickelson had three victories and a second to Woods at Doral. Since then, he tied for seventh at the Wachovia in early May and hadn’t been in the top 10 until tying for 10th at last week’s International, a streak that included a disappointing tie for 33rd at the U.S. Open and a totally deflating tie for 60th at the British Open.

His key is driving it straight. He ranks 168th in fairways hit.

* Mark Hensby: He is coming in hot, after winning the Scandinavian Masters two weeks ago in Stockholm, even if he’s not exactly a household name. That’s precisely why he should be in the mix this week.

He can also play the majors. He tied for fifth at the Masters, tied for third at the U.S. Open and tied for 15th at the British Open. He may not hit it as long as the big guys (289.6-yard average), but his distance is good enough, especially when you can putt as he does.

* Sergio Garcia: When is it going to be his turn? This week, perhaps. He’s 25 now and looking for his first major -- Woods had five at the same age. So far, it has been close to a breakthrough year for him with seven top-10s in 15 tournaments, including a victory at the Booz Allen Classic.

He missed the cut at the Masters, but rebounded with a tie for third at the U.S. Open and a tie for fifth at the British Open. He averages an even 300 yards off the tee but is tied for 145th in fairways hit. Even so, he ranks fourth in greens in regulation. His key is a familiar one. He ranks 199th in putting.

* Kenny Perry: With two victories this year and five top-10s, he should be included in the list of players to keep an eye on. He drives it a long way (302.8-yard average) and he’s fifth in greens in regulation, plus tied for sixth in scoring (69.72).

He also has come close to winning this major. He had a great chance in 1996 at Valhalla but lost famously in a playoff to Mark Brooks, who tied Perry as he watched and chatted on the air in the broadcast booth instead of staying loose on the practice range.

* Ian Poulter: Even though he has won six times in Europe, he may belong in the Beem-Micheel category, but he’s a confident player who is due to break through, and this is clearly the stage for that kind of behavior.