Schwarzenegger Keeps Swinging -- and Keeps Missing

This is the heart of the baseball season, so why shouldn’t the state Senate leader inject some diamond lingo into Sacramento’s political games?

It indicates that Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata (D-Oakland) is following something really important: the hot pennant race between his hometown Athletics and the L.A. Angels of Anaheim. That’s healthy and refreshing.

Perata fell back on baseball jargon Monday in talking about Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s “reform” proposals on the November special election ballot.

The initiatives are batting “below the Mendoza line” with voters, the senator told a Capitol news conference, quickly adding: “That’s a sports expression. Forget I said that.”

Don’t think so. It’s an apt metaphor.

The Mendoza line is a .200 batting average. That’s rarely good enough to stick in the majors.

But normally only a baseball addict, like Perata, would know about the Mendoza line. There were a lot of blank stares in the Capitol news conference room.

Who was Mendoza? It’s not clear.

Some contend the Mendoza line was named after infielder Minnie Mendoza, a career minor leaguer who finally made it briefly to the Minnesota Twins in 1970 and hit only .188. Another version is that it’s named after slick-fielding shortstop Mario Mendoza. He played nine seasons between 1974 and 1982 for Pittsburgh, Seattle and Texas, bouncing up and down across the .200 mark and winding up with a career average of .215.

Suffice it that anybody hitting below the Mendoza line isn’t batting in many runs and probably is striking out a lot. Like Schwarzenegger this year.

Perata didn’t exactly say the governor is batting below the acceptable level for big league play, but he is.

In the most recent nonpartisan Field poll, only 37% of voters approved of how Schwarzenegger was handling his job.

I’d peg the Mendoza line for a politician at 40%.

The senator drew the Mendoza line for ballot measures, at this early stage of the season, at 50% support in the polls.

“Any of these smart political consultants, who are making a huge amount of money off this election, will tell you that if you don’t start in the 60s, the chances of passing things are not good,” Perata said.

Schwarzenegger’s two major reforms aren’t even close.

The June Field poll showed that Proposition 76, a proposed spending cap, was supported by only 31% of voters. Since then, Atty. Gen. Bill Lockyer has tweaked the measure’s official title and summary, at the backers’ request. But opponents contend this still hasn’t moved voters in their private polls.

Proposition 77, which would empower judges -- rather than legislators -- to draw political districts, was supported by only 33% of voters.

What all this means is that Schwarzenegger is playing hurt at the bargaining table. His ability to help or harm causes has waned. What’s he have to offer? Other than Republicans, who does he persuade these days?

Republicans account for only 35% of registered voters in California. In a Republicans-against-the-world contest, they lose.

The governor and Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez (D-Los Angeles) have been trying to barter a bipartisan deal on ballot propositions. If successful, the Legislature would place on the ballot some compromise alternatives to initiatives already there.

For example, they’d write a new budget cap. And the governor would agree not to support -- not raise money for -- Proposition 75, an initiative making it tougher for public employee unions to spend members’ dues on politics. They’d also tinker with the redistricting proposal, in turn for the governor supporting more flexible term limits.

But Perata is sitting this one out. Nunez would need to convince both him and the unions that they should buy into any compromise. And that’s not likely, with the deadline Friday, because Schwarzenegger and his proposals look weak. They’ll be rejected by voters anyway, most Democratic pols believe.

As for the anti-union measure, it’s supported by 57% of voters in the Field poll. So unions will need to raise $20 million to beat it, regardless of where Schwarzenegger stands.

Moreover, Perata sees the special election as a referendum on Schwarzenegger. “That’s what everybody has set this thing up to be,” he says -- Schwarzenegger and Republicans initially, now increasingly unions and Democrats.

Privately, however, some Democrats see that as a danger. People still root for Schwarzenegger, they say, even if voters currently don’t like what he’s doing. Nunez views the election as more of “a referendum on Republican policies. This is bigger than Schwarzenegger.”

Add to the mix an unpopular President Bush, says political analyst Tony Quinn, a Republican who long has contended that the special election could be Schwarzenegger’s downfall. “Democrats can run against Republicans and Bush and make this a national referendum,” Quinn asserts.

Republican strategist Ken Khachigian believes Schwarzenegger should soon declare his candidacy for reelection in 2006. He says that would assure initiative campaign contributors -- mainly from business -- that they won’t be abandoned to vengeful Democrats after kicking in for his causes.

“He needs $30 million for his initiatives, and he’s not going to raise it unless there’s some sense that he’s sticking around,” Khachigian says. “Besides, the public likes bold moves.”

What we still don’t know about Schwarzenegger is whether he’s just in a slump -- and merely needs a new hitting coach -- or was a fluke phenom all along, bound to be a bust in the bigs. We’ll know more at season’s end, in November.

George Skelton writes Monday and Thursday. Reach him at george.skelton@latimes.com.