Getting to the Point

Well, isn’t this shaping up nicely?

It’s Dec. 1 and USC is ranked first.

And on Dec. 2 Texas will still be second.

And these two 11-0 squads are the only major college schools without a loss.

And the top 10 schools in this week’s bowl championship series standings are in the exact order they were the week before.

And this is enough to make some people ill.

Welcome to, gulp, Tranquillity Base?

If heavily favored USC beats UCLA on Saturday and heavily favored Texas beats Colorado, college football will be absent its most reliable dance partner in recent years -- raging controversy.

USC will play Texas on Jan. 4 in the Rose Bowl and the winner will emerge as this season’s undisputed champion.

This is not a good time to be a playoff advocate.

“Understand that we have a playoff,” Notre Dame Athletic Director Kevin White was saying just the other day. “It just starts in September. Every game matters.”

What proponents of change feared most was this kind of “Kumbaya” sing-along.

Their best shot to overthrow the BCS government was another double dose of 2003, or a repeat of last year’s California-Texas debacle that had the Associated Press issuing cease-and-desist orders to BCS lawyers.

There was a sense that one more controversy might lead the BCS to consider at least a modified playoff or, more drastic, a return to the old bowl system when the new four-year television deal with Fox expires in 2010.

USC-Texas sets back the cause.

Is it too late for anarchy?

Never say never.

In 1998, the first year of the BCS, No. 1 Tennessee and No. 2 UCLA whistled into the final weekend. Then UCLA lost to Miami, No. 3 Kansas State lost to Texas A&M; and No. 4 Florida State, from its couch, jumped all the way to the championship-game Fiesta Bowl.

In 2001, No. 1 Miami and No. 2 Florida appeared headed for a Rose Bowl showdown before Florida lost to Tennessee.

Texas was next in line at No. 3 but lost the Big 12 title game to Colorado, which had just creamed Nebraska, 62-36.

Tennessee then needed a win over Louisiana State in the Southeastern Conference title game to get to the national-title game but lost, which put Nebraska in the game by .05 over Colorado and No. 4 Oregon, which finished No. 2 in both human polls.

In 2003, the mother of all BCS twisters, USC finished No. 1 in both polls but No. 3 in the BCS standings behind Oklahoma and LSU -- you might remember that raising some dust.

What could happen this year?

1. USC wins but Texas loses. A loss to 7-4 Colorado almost assuredly would knock Texas out of the Rose Bowl, which would leave USC-Penn State for the national title.

2. Texas wins but USC loses a close game to UCLA. Could the Trojans still finish No. 2 in the BCS?

It’s possible, but not likely.

In 2003, No. 1 Oklahoma was crushed, 35-7, by Kansas State in the Big 12 title game but still finished No. 1 in the BCS.

That was a “Perfect Storm” scenario, though, because the Sooners had a commanding lead in the computers and could drop only to No. 3 in the polls because everyone else in contention had two losses.

The potential problem for one-loss USC this year is No. 3 Penn State, which has completed its season and has nowhere to go but up.

Jerry Palm, an independent BCS analyst, says, flat out, that a USC loss would vault Penn State, currently No. 3 in the BCS computer component, to No. 2 behind Texas.

That means USC would need to stay ahead of Penn State in the human polls to have a chance to win a BCS points war.

3. USC and Texas lose.

OK, now we’re talking. In this scenario, Penn State is in the Rose Bowl and USC, so long as it doesn’t get routed, probably edges out Texas, one-loss LSU, one-loss Virginia Tech and one-loss UCLA.

The thinking here is:

USC’s only loss would be to 10-1 UCLA.

Texas’ loss would be to four-loss Colorado.

“Texas would be done completely,” Palm said.

LSU is lagging at No. 7 in the BCS computers, and its defeat came against a Tennessee team that finished 5-6. LSU beat Arkansas by two; USC beat Arkansas by 53.

Virginia Tech’s defeat was a bad one, 27-7 at home to Miami.

UCLA would have just defeated USC, but it’s hard to imagine the Bruins could climb from No. 12 to No. 2 in the BCS -- the punishment for that razing at Arizona.

Pac-10 Bias?

If 10-1 Oregon does not earn an at-large BCS bid this year, it will mark the fourth time since 2001 the Pacific 10 Conference has gotten short-changed in the million-dollar bowl department.

Yet, the evidence suggests that if there is any bias, it is with the computers that help determine these outcomes, not with voters.

In 2001, Oregon finished No. 2 in both human polls but fourth in the BCS standings because of its computer component.

In 2003, USC finished No. 1 in both human polls but No. 3 in the BCS -- because of computers.

Last year, Cal was denied a trip to the Rose Bowl because it finished fifth in the BCS standings behind No. 4 Texas, but Cal finished fourth in both human polls, ahead of Texas.

Maybe the Pac-10’s problem is that only two of the six BCS computer operators -- Anderson & Hester and Peter Wolfe -- are west of the Mississippi.

The Pac-10 also has a geographic problem in that the Tempe, Ariz., Fiesta Bowl is the only real option for its at-large candidates.

Before USC’s at-large invite to the Orange Bowl in 2002, only one Pac-10 team had ever played in the game -- Washington in 1985.

No Pac-10 school has ever played in the Sugar Bowl.

It’s basically the Fiesta Bowl or bust for the Left Coast league, and this year’s decision is complicated by the Fiesta wanting to match Notre Dame and Ohio State rather than making it Notre Dame-Oregon or Penn State-Oregon.

Fiesta Bowl President/Chief Executive John Junker prefers making friends to enemies but this year will anger either Pac-10 Commissioner Tom Hansen (if the Fiesta takes Ohio State) or Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany (if it takes Oregon).

“You’re splitting hairs trying to make these determinations,” Junker said of choosing among the at-large schools.

One reason there is no playoff in college football is that major bowls want to maintain flexibility in team selection so as to maximize television ratings and economic benefits.

“You make the best choices you can; you can’t make everybody happy,” Junker said. “But that’s all part of the game.”

Hurry-Up Offense

* The BCS controversy this year could come on the second tier, with bogus contestants Colorado (7-4) and Florida State (7-4) advancing to conference title games and possibly earning a BCS bid at the expense of 10-1 Oregon or 9-2 Auburn.

Texas Coach Mack Brown said all that needed to be said about why conference title games are played: money. Brown recounted that Big 12 coaches voted 12-0 against playing conference title games and athletic directors voted 12-0 in favor.

* There is an eerie backdrop to Texas-Colorado in the Big 12 title game. In 2001, Texas needed to defeat Colorado, a team it routed in the regular season, in the Big 12 title game to earn Brown his first conference championship and a chance to play for the national title in the Rose Bowl.

Colorado won, 39-37.

Saturday, in Houston, Texas needs to defeat Colorado, a team it routed in the regular season, to earn Brown his first conference championship and a chance to play for the national title in the Rose Bowl.

“It’s a coincidence,” Texas cornerback Aaron Ross said this week. “No one on this team played in that game. It’s a new year, a new team, and a new game.”

* More on Notre Dame and the bowls. It is assumed that the Fiesta Bowl will take Notre Dame instead of Penn State in part because the Irish draw dynamite television ratings. Yet, the Arizona Republic reported this week that Penn State has averaged a 15.3 rating in six Fiesta Bowl appearances and Notre Dame has averaged 11.2 in three appearances.

* If USC wins Saturday and the Fiesta Bowl passes on Oregon, the Pac-10 bowl lineup will be: Rose, USC; Holiday, Oregon; Sun, UCLA; Las Vegas, California; and Insight, Arizona State. If UCLA wins and knocks USC out of the Rose Bowl, the Trojans land in the Fiesta Bowl, and the Holiday must decide between UCLA or Oregon with the Sun taking the discard.

If UCLA beats USC, the Bruins could get an automatic BCS berth if they rise to No. 4 in the final standings, but that would be quite a leap.

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Playoffs?!

How the championship bowl results have fared: (Rankings are Associated Press rankings entering the bowl game):

*--* YEAR BOWL BOWL COALITION 1992 Sugar No. 2 Alabama 34, No. 1 Miami 13 Result: Alabama voted champion 1993 Orange No. 1 Florida State 18, No. 2 Nebraska 16 Result: Florida State voted champion 1994 Orange No. 1 Nebraska 24, No. 3 Miami 17 Result: Nebraska champion; No. 2 Penn State also unbeaten YEAR BOWL BOWL ALLIANCE 1995 Fiesta No. 1 Nebraska 62, No. 2 Florida 24 Result: Nebraska voted champion 1996 Sugar No. 3 Florida 52, No. 1 Florida State 20 Result: Florida champion; No. 2 Arizona St. loses Rose Bowl 1997 Orange No. 2 Nebraska 42, No. 3 Tennessee 17 Result: No. 1 Michigan wins Rose Bowl; co-champions YEAR BOWL BOWL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES 1998 Fiesta No. 1 Tennessee 23, No. 2 Florida State 16 Result: Tennessee voted champion 1999 Sugar No. 1 Florida State 46, No. 2 Virginia Tech 29 Result: Florida State voted champion 2000 Orange No. 1 Oklahoma 13, No. 2 Florida State 2 Result: Oklahoma voted champion 2001 Rose No. 1 Miami 37, No. 4 Nebraska 14 Result: Miami voted champion 2002 Fiesta No. 2 Ohio State 31, No. 1 Miami 24 (2 OT) Result: Ohio State voted champion 2003 Sugar No. 2 LSU 21, No. 3 Oklahoma 14 Result: No. 1 USC wins Rose Bowl; co-champions 2004 Orange No. 1 USC 55, No. 2 Oklahoma 19 Result: USC voted champion; No. 3 Auburn also unbeaten

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