Gov. Can Recover From Sophomore Jinx

Maybe for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger this year was inevitable, a preordained calamity written in the stars.

Sure, Schwarzenegger created most of his own havoc in 2005. He reaped what he sowed. But much of his trouble may have been fated.

I was reminded of this the other day while glancing at a column I wrote exactly one year ago when the governor’s job approval ratings were in the stratospheric mid-60s. It began:

“If history were prophecy, [Schwarzenegger] now would be heading blindly into a dark chasm of trouble. Practically every California governor for nearly half a century has been afflicted with the sophomore jinx. Politically, they’ve tended to sail smoothly through their freshman years, then smack into a storm, if not an outright typhoon.”

What Schwarzenegger plowed obliviously into definitely can be categorized as a typhoon, whipped up by public employees after he recklessly attacked teachers, police, firefighters and nurses unions.

All of his proposed “reform” initiatives were rejected by voters. He raised and blew roughly $50 million in campaign donations, mainly from special interests, and wasted $54 million in taxpayers’ money on an unpopular special election. His job approval ratings plummeted into the mid-30s.

But a review of history may add perspective.

Gov. Pat Brown was elected by a landslide, but in his sophomore year, 1960, he was dubbed “a tower of jelly” for trying to save notorious “Red Light Bandit” Caryl Chessman -- another death row author -- from the gas chamber. At that summer’s Democratic National Convention in L.A., Brown was tagged a “bumbler” for failing to control California’s splintered delegation. His job ratings tumbled.

The derisive labels stuck for the rest of Brown’s career, although he grew into a great governor, a “builder” Schwarzenegger now talks about emulating.

Celebrity Govs. Ronald Reagan and Jerry Brown caught Potomac fever during their sophomore years and ran lamely, prematurely for president. Reagan was humbled, but soon recovered. Brown never did fully, earning the image of ambitious opportunist, although he was resurrected into a new political life as Oakland’s mayor.

Gov. George Deukmejian was surprised by an embezzlement scandal in his sophomore year, but deftly handled it and endured little popularity loss.

Gov. Pete Wilson suffered a horrible second year. He meddled clumsily in Republican legislative primaries and angered party activists. He became mired in a summer-long budget quagmire, forcing the state to operate on IOUs. He sponsored a welfare/budget “reform” that voters rejected after Democrats attacked it as a “power grab.” His job approval fell into the low 30s.

Gov. Gray Davis began stumbling down the path to destruction during his sophomore year. He reacted cautiously -- if you can call it reacting at all -- to the erupting energy crisis. Also, he was pushed by liberal legislators into spending a temporary revenue spike on permanent programs and tax cuts, leading to massive deficits and his recall.

Yet, all these governors recovered enough to win reelection. They had two years to bounce back, however.

Schwarzenegger was elected for an abbreviated term and must run next year. He squandered 2005, which should have been election-free and focused on scoring legislative victories.

At least he’s finishing the year on the right track.

The initial Republican uproar over Schwarzenegger’s selection of Democratic pro Susan Kennedy as his chief of staff seems to have calmed after he held frank meetings last week with GOP leaders and legislators.

Kennedy may bring sorely needed focus and cohesion to the gubernatorial staff. But to benefit from her abilities, the novice governor needs to delegate more authority than he did to his previous top aide, Pat Clarey.

Schwarzenegger is hearing GOP kudos for recruiting two other Capitol-savvy staffers: Cabinet Secretary Fred Aguiar, a former Republican assemblyman from Chino, and policy advisor Dan Dunmoyer, an insurance lobbyist and former GOP legislative aide. They’re seen as ideological balances to Kennedy.

Schwarzenegger also last week adeptly handled his denial of clemency to quadruple murderer Stanley Tookie Williams, issuing a clear, detailed explanation for not sparing his life. No “tower of jelly” here.

Otherwise, Schwarzenegger has been buried in budget books, completing a spending plan to be unveiled in early January after he delivers a tone-setting State of the State address.

Flush with unexpected revenues, Schwarzenegger is on the verge of repaying schools some of the money he promised in a budget deal two years ago, but reneged on to avoid a tax hike. By next summer, the unfulfilled promise will total $5 billion-plus. Making amends with the powerful school lobby is essential for the governor.

Schwarzenegger and the entire Capitol favor asking voters for a huge infrastructure bond to build and repair highways, water facilities, levees, hospitals and schools. Look for around $30 billion, however, not the politically and logistically impractical $50 billion first hinted at by the governor.

Everybody says Schwarzenegger should spend more time in Sacramento actually governing. It’s good for policymaking and for politics.

“He’s got to get off the vaudeville circuit,” says Democratic consultant Bill Carrick. “He’s got to get cracking and get stuff done....

“One thing we know does not work: He can’t walk out of the [negotiating] room and say, ‘I’m going to take it to the people.’ That’s over. He’s got to stay in the room. This is called democracy in a divided government.”

Schwarzenegger seems to have learned these lessons in his sophomore year. If so, he has a good shot at passing his reelection test.

George Skelton writes Mondays and Thursdays. Reach him at george.skelton@latimes.com.