The choo-choo that grew legs

As “The Polar Express” cruised into the top 10 movies of the year at the box office, executives at rival studios marveled at the computer-animated film’s stamina and the way Warner Bros. handled the film.

“When this movie came out, with the opening weekend, the reviews, everybody thought it would just disappear,” said Jeff Blake, chairman of worldwide distribution for Sony Pictures Entertainment.

Bruce Snyder, president of distribution for 20th Century Fox, said: “This movie did not in any way look like it was going to hit $100 million, and it just keeps going. Tom Hanks, Bob Zemeckis, all those elements, and they worked. People liked it.”

Within the industry, the odds against “Polar Express” succeeding seemed so long that one executive at a rival studio, who did not want to be identified, made a bet that the movie wouldn’t get past $80 million. As of Sunday, the film had grossed an estimated $155.2 million, and Warner Bros. expects it to reach $170 million and possibly more.

“By the end of this week,” said Dan Fellman, president of distribution for Warner Bros., “it could hit 160.”

As of Thursday, “we just crossed the $26-million mark in the Imax theaters,” which Fellman predicted “may bring another $5 [million], maybe $8 million, that gets you to $170 million.” As far as its final domestic total, “I’ve certainly got my eye on that $180 [million],” he said. Not bad for a movie that in its all-important first weekend earned $23 million, “obviously not as high as we had hoped,” Fellman said. Analysts, competitors and the media all predicted a very short run for the film.

“In this business, we focus all our attention on the first weekend,” which commonly represents a third or fourth of the final take for a big studio event movie, Blake said. “If it doesn’t live up to expectations, we tend to write it off and move on.”

But a strange thing happened with “The Polar Express.”

It did not follow the usual pattern of dropping 40% to 50% in its second weekend. Instead, figures posted on tracking firm Boxofficemojo.com show that it declined about 33% in its second weekend, then business went up about 24% in the third, which was Thanksgiving weekend. It accomplished that without adding any theaters. The only other films to post increases that weekend had added screens.

In every other weekend after it opened except for its fourth, “Polar Express” posted the smallest decline in business of any of the top 10 movies. It has also taken in roughly $101 million so far in foreign markets, according to Warner Bros.

“We reached out in our group sales effort to schools, religious organizations and corporate groups,” Fellman said. “The response was overwhelmingly from schools.” At the current rate, revenue from foreign, home video, TV and other ancillary markets should mean the film -- which cost an estimated $170 million to make, not including marketing -- could possibly break even.

“In the end,” Fox’s Snyder said, “they made a movie that people love.”