USC or NFL? Leinart to Say Today

You’re a tall, dark and handsome 21-year-old with a Heisman Trophy, two national championships and a friendship with celebrity couple-of-the-moment Nick Lachey and Jessica Simpson. But is remaining the biggest man on campus worth potentially jeopardizing $10 million?

That, in essence, is the question confronting USC quarterback Matt Leinart, who has said he will announce today whether he will give up his final year of college football eligibility to make himself available for the upcoming NFL draft.

The call might well be a no-brainer for many on the cusp of college graduation. A recent sociology graduate, for example, can expect to earn about $30,000 a year.

Leinart, who is 18 credits away from his sociology degree, probably would receive more than 300 times that amount in his signing bonus alone. But experts in and out of football said Wednesday that someone in Leinart’s position probably was inundated in recent days with pressure from many directions, complicating his decision.

“An athlete is torn between these two poles -- going, staying, going, staying -- and the information flow becomes overwhelming,” said Newport Beach-based agent Leigh Steinberg, who has represented many top quarterbacks. “The athlete is torn between two courses of action that both seem compelling.”

Stay, and Leinart would lead the Trojans next fall in their quest to become the first team to win three consecutive national championships. He would remain in the comfortable cocoon of college life in his native Southern California, where he has become a popular sports star embraced by celebrities, sought after by talk-show hosts and tutored by two of the best coaches in college football.

Depart, and he would probably receive a guaranteed eight-figure signing bonus -- part of a contract that could top $40 million over five years if he is among the first players selected by NFL teams in April.

“He’s struggling.... It’s a stressful deal,” said Norm Chow, USC’s offensive coordinator, adding that a huge contract would not only have a life-altering effect on Leinart but probably on “generations” of the quarterback’s family.

Bob Leinart, Matt’s father, said even he was unsure which way his son was leaning.

“He might actually have two speeches prepared,” he said.

Neither option is without risk. By staying, Leinart could suffer a serious injury or have an uninspired senior season that could lower his standing among NFL suitors. Insurance can help offset the risk of injury, but not of poor play.

As of last week, 27 underclassmen had declared themselves eligible for this year’s draft, among them top quarterback prospects Alex Smith of Utah and Aaron Rodgers of California. Because of the complexity of the position, a pro quarterback often spends most of his first season on the sideline.

That was the case with Leinart’s predecessor at USC, Carson Palmer, who won the Heisman -- given to college football’s outstanding player -- in his final season, and was drafted first overall by the Cincinnati Bengals in 2003. He spent his rookie season observing, then stepped into the starting job last fall.

Upon committing to the pros, Leinart would probably have to submit to physical and psychological tests, where a disappointing showing could send his value downward.

Leinart, who in recent weeks spoke of remaining in school to help Coach Pete Carroll build a “dynasty,” said Wednesday he still had not made up his mind.

“I have now all of everything I can possibly think of,” he said after meeting about an hour with Carroll. “It’s just a matter of really dissecting” information.

NFL scouting expert Gil Brandt, a former personnel director for the Dallas Cowboys, said he projected Leinart as the No. 1 selection in the draft, held by the San Francisco 49ers.

“When you play well against Oklahoma, it’s a lot different than playing well against a Washington State or lesser teams,” Brandt said, referring to Leinart’s performance in last week’s national championship game, the Orange Bowl, in which Leinart threw five passes for touchdowns in a 55-19 victory over Oklahoma.

But what Leinart did on the field is only part of the scouting process. After players declare their eligibility for the draft, they often take part in events that give teams a close look at them, including postseason all-star games and NFL scouting “combines.” There are speed and strength tests, physical exams, interviews and IQ tests.

In 1997, when Peyton Manning was a junior and weighing the merits of leaving Tennessee a year early, his father, Archie, asked then-New York Jet Coach Bill Parcells how high he thought Peyton might be drafted.

“Bill called back a week later and said, ‘I’ve watched every ball he threw in college,’ ” said the elder Manning, who also played quarterback in the NFL. “He was serious. Every ball. When they’re making that kind of investment, absolutely they want to see every play you’ve ever been involved in.”

Despite rampant speculation that he would leave college early, Peyton Manning stayed for his senior season, then was drafted first overall by Indianapolis in 1998. Last spring, the San Diego Chargers used the top pick on his younger brother, Eli, before trading him to the New York Giants. Eli Manning also stayed for his senior season, at Mississippi.

“In the end, Peyton did what his heart told him,” Archie said. “He just flat wanted to stay. More than anything else, he wanted to be a senior. In Eli’s case, he wanted to be a senior too, but it was more a situation where he wanted to get better and enhance his standing in the draft.”

Leinart’s rise to celebrity began when he led USC to a 23-0 victory at Auburn in the 2003 season opener. He concluded the season by passing for three touchdowns, as well as catching a pass for a touchdown, in the Rose Bowl victory over Michigan. USC won a share of its first national championship since 1978, and Leinart finished sixth in Heisman balloting.

Before the 2004 season, Leinart appeared on more than a dozen magazine covers and was trumpeted as a front-runner for the Heisman. USC’s sports information office placed him on the cover of the media guide and set up a Web log for him.

Leinart spent the night he won the Heisman partying with other finalists and friends at a trendy New York nightclub. He has been invited to next week’s presidential inauguration.

“Some people say he’d be getting another year of the college experience if he stayed,” said agent Jerome Stanley, who has represented several high-profile athletes. “But it’s not even a true college experience. He’s a celebrity. It’s like Mary-Kate and Ashley [Olsen] at NYU. He’s under a microscope already. College life as he knew it is over.”

With the money that a pro career promises comes even more scrutiny and considerably stepped-up financial pressures. Eli Manning received roughly $16 million -- guaranteed -- last year, and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, the 11th player selected, received about $9 million from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Players chosen near the end of the first round often receive about $3 million.

Accountant Philip Holthouse, a partner with the L.A. firm Holthouse Carlin & VanTrigt, says that when Leinart does turn pro he can expect to be bombarded by people pushing investment products, tax shelters and the like.

“He’s going to be inundated by every financial planner that knows somebody who knows somebody who knows him,” Holthouse said. “They’re going to be parked outside his house trying to sell him something.”

Matters grow more complicated, Steinberg said, when a quarterback is playing near his home, as was the case with former UCLA quarterback Tommy Maddox, who left school after his redshirt sophomore season.

“It’s hard enough to be the father of a college football player and watch your son criticized for his play on the field,” Steinberg said. “It’s exponentially more difficult to read about his lack of character and how he’s taking the money and running.”