ATLANTA FALCONS

THE CHAMPIONSHIP TEAMS: PART III

Another in a four-part series of comprehensive looks at each of the teams in Sunday’s NFC and AFC championship games.

PIVOTAL PLAYER

* Is there any doubt? The Falcons will rise or fall on the left arm and feet of quarterback Michael Vick. Some compare him to another Michael -- Jordan -- who dominated another sport. Vick, of course, hasn’t won, or even been to, football’s big show, the Super Bowl. Injured for much of last season, he has had only two full years as a starter. In that time, he has shown he is the best running quarterback in the game, but the running has always been more impressive than the throwing. He will have to do both well if Atlanta is to win Sunday.

FUTURE LOS ANGELES EXPANSION PICK

* It’s still new and exciting for rookie quarterback Matt Schaub, the Atlantic Coast Conference player of the year from Virginia in 2002. Playing behind Vick? Who cares? At least the third-round draft pick is in the NFL. By 2008, or ‘09, or whenever the NFL finally returns to L.A., Schaub will care. Big time. Holding a clipboard for Vick will have gotten really old. Schaub will want out, and L.A. will prove to be the perfect place for the Falcons to dump him.

WHY THE FALCONS WILL WIN

* Because they have the best running game in the league. Because it’s supposed to snow heavily this weekend in Philadelphia, and a sloppy field favors the team that doesn’t have to go to the air as often. Because the Eagles, having lost the three previous NFC championship games, will be too conservative.

WHY THE FALCONS WILL LOSE

* Because the Eagles, having been reminded all season about their losing streak in this game and knowing the legendary wrath of their fans, may instead be driven to victory by fear of failure. Because the Falcons, having already exceeded the highest expectations of their most loyal supporters, will be content with what they have already accomplished. Because Vick’s average passing skills and below-average receivers will be exposed.

X-FACTOR

* Allen Rossum, also known as Atlanta’s breakout special teams player. Everyone saw how special Rossum was in last week’s divisional playoff game against the St. Louis Rams, in which he returned a punt 68 yards for a touchdown and amassed a total of 152 yards on three returns, a league postseason record. If it’s a close game, watch for Rossum to break it open.

BREAKOUT OFFENSIVE PLAYER

* Running back Warrick Dunn. He set club postseason records for most rushing yards (142) and longest run (62 yards) against the Rams. If he can continue to find gaps in the line and rushes for triple figures Sunday, Dunn will force the Eagles to devote more resources to stopping him. Which could mean more open space for Vick. Which could prove disastrous for Philadelphia.

BREAKOUT DEFENSIVE PLAYER

* Defensive lineman Patrick Kerney. On a defense that led the NFL in sacks (48), a first for the Falcons, nobody was better at leading the charge into the opponent’s backfield than Kerney, who benefited from Atlanta’s switch this season from a 3-4 to a 4-3 alignment. Kerney had a career-high 13 sacks.

GOAT IN WAITING

* Schaub. Right now, he’s merely a quarterback in waiting. And that’s where the Falcons desperately hope he stays. The last thing they want to see is Vick injured. If so, they would have to throw a rookie out there onto the possibly slick Lincoln Financial Field turf in front of a loud, extremely hostile crowd. In six games during the regular season, all but one for mop-up purposes, Schaub threw four interceptions and one touchdown pass. It would be ugly.

UNDER THIS COACHING REGIME

* Jim Mora is also a rookie, but, last Saturday, the new head coach surpassed his father, Jim Mora Sr., by winning a postseason game. His father failed to do that in six tries over a 15-year head coaching career.