Schroeder Orchestrates His Exit as His Party Flounders

Facing high unemployment and an inability to reform the welfare state, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder deliberately lost a confidence vote in Parliament on Friday, opening the way for early elections that are expected to push his liberal coalition from power.

Schroeder called for the vote after a series of political defeats and widening divisions within his Social Democratic Party over how to reform one of Europe’s most generous welfare systems. President Horst Kohler is expected to dissolve Parliament in the coming weeks, and new elections are likely by mid-September, a year before Schroeder’s term was to expire.

With an 18% approval rating, Schroeder’s party has been viewed by most Germans as unable to stem high unemployment and enact social and economic programs to improve the nation’s global competitiveness.

The conservative Christian Democrat Union, led by Angela Merkel, is well-positioned to win in new elections, according to recent polls.

Schroeder acknowledged his party’s failures when he addressed the lower house of Parliament moments before the vote: “The reform program, known as Agenda 2010, has led to disputes between the parties and within the parties. My party, I can’t deny it, has suffered most from the disputes.”

Only 151 of 601 members of the lower house voted for Schroeder on Friday. The defeat was largely orchestrated by the chancellor, who asked his own party members and supporters to cast ballots of no confidence.

Analysts called it an indication that Schroeder believed his party and its allies were not unified enough to weather another year of economic problems while attempting to persuade Germans to accept significant social cuts.

Schroeder’s Agenda 2010 program, announced two years ago and intended to prepare Germany’s welfare system for economic globalization, failed to reduce the country’s unemployment rate of almost 12%, the highest since the modern republic was formed in 1949.

Schroeder’s political maneuverability was further curtailed by the Christian Democrats, who, in controlling the upper house of Parliament, blocked many of the chancellor’s efforts.

“The urgent problems of our country, the continuation of reforms, the crisis of the European Union, the challenge of globalization and the danger for peace, security and stability do not allow a state of paralysis,” Schroeder said in his speech. “We need clarity.”

Germany’s Constitution does not allow Parliament to dissolve itself, but after a lost confidence vote by the lower house, the president may call for early elections. It is still not certain whether Kohler will disband Parliament, or whether legal challenges will force the Constitutional Court to rule against the balloting.

Schroeder announced his strategy six weeks ago after his party lost an important regional vote in North Rhine-Westphalia, the Social Democratic heartland.

Merkel, who would be Germany’s first female chancellor, supported Schroeder’s decision to hold the no-confidence vote but denied that her party had obstructed reform.

“The Agenda 2010 was a right step in the right direction,” Merkel said. Pointing toward Schroeder, she continued: “You were unable to tell the voters why the changes are necessary. That’s why you have lost the last [regional] elections.”

Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer of Schroeder’s junior coalition partner, the Greens, used the session to criticize Merkel’s party. He said the Christian Democrats had failed to present an alternative program for change.

“Ms. Merkel, at the moment you and your opinion polls come across like a beautiful souffle in the oven,” he said. “Let’s see what’s really left of this splendor when the voter has pricked into it” in the run-up to elections.

Kohler must decide within 21 days whether he agrees with Schroeder that the current government cannot continue to function. In such a case, he would call elections within an additional 60 days.

Political analysts expect that Kohler will approve the new balloting.

“A president who urges every day to hurry up will be the last one to say: Let’s muddle on for another year,” wrote Robert Leicht, a commentator for the weekly newspaper Die Zeit.

Bild, a major tabloid and frequent critic of Schroeder, has already bid him an ironic farewell. In its Friday issue, the paper wrote “Thank You, Chancellor” in large letters on the front page.

The Constitutional Court could still block early elections. Werner Schulz, a Greens lawmaker, announced Friday that he would file suit to keep the current Parliament in office until autumn 2006.

Several small parties announced last week that they also would file suit.