Gov. Has Work Cut Out for Him to Reverse Self-Inflicted Decline in Approval

It would be premature to write Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s political obituary. But he certainly has dug himself a deep grave and it’s arguable whether he can climb out.

Consider: Schwarzenegger has lost a third of his once lofty job-rating since January and more voters now disapprove of his performance in office than approve, according to nonpartisan polls.

He even loses hypothetical reelection matchups against two relatively unknown Democrats: state Treasurer Phil Angelides and Controller Steve Westly.

“I have about as much interest in these [matchup] numbers as I do Tom Cruise’s views on religion,” says Schwarzenegger campaign spokesman Todd Harris, noting it’s awfully early to be handicapping races that won’t conclude for 16 months.

Harris’ explanation for Schwarzenegger’s popularity plunge is this: “The governor said, ‘When special interests try to push me around, I’m going to push back.’ Well, there’s no question there has been a lot of pushing around by both sides. And we have the scars to prove it.”

Schwarzenegger has been far outspent by unions on TV ads. But those anti-Schwarzenegger ads -- featuring teachers, nurses and firefighters -- seem to have found a receptive audience.

“This is just a death from a thousand cuts, all of them self-inflicted,” says Democratic consultant Garry South, who was Gov. Gray Davis’ chief strategist. “None of this had to happen.”

Here is my list of the most damaging self-inflicted wounds:

* Thinking that because of his Hollywood superstardom, he could defy the laws of political gravity. He could belittle people -- “girlie men,” “losers,” “kick their butts” -- and not deface his image. He could ignore the Capitol and stage gimmicky rallies around the state without casting doubts on his performance as governor. He could sell anything, even a hastily considered, flawed “reform” agenda.

* Misunderstanding the American political system. We gripe about politicians, but inherently cherish the subtle checks and balances that result in coequal branches of government. We want the executive and legislative branches to cooperate even while competing. We don’t tolerate strongman bullies, whether it’s for real or an act.

* Degenerating into a pugnacious, political partisan after getting elected as a bipartisan conciliator. His party, after all, comprises only 35% of the California electorate.

* Bowing to the right wing on taxes. He initially had the credibility to sell anything, even a temporary tax hike that could have fixed the state’s nagging budget deficit once and for all. That’s what Gov. Ronald Reagan did, and he never had to worry again about a deficit. Instead, Schwarzenegger placed the state billions more into hock with borrowing and still hasn’t made ends meet. He’s gaining on it, but making enemies.

* Breaking his promise to schools. Under a negotiated deal he cut with the education lobby soon after taking office, Schwarzenegger promised schools their normal share of any increased tax revenue. Then he reneged, stiffing them $3 billion. He couldn’t keep his word without breaking another promise: not to raise taxes.

* Implying to voters he wouldn’t accept political money from special interests, then raking in more than Davis -- the so-called “pay to play” governor -- could have ever dreamed about. Since his election, Schwarzenegger has raised roughly $50 million, making this “reformer” look like just another money-grubbing pol.

* Picking the wrong enemies: teachers, nurses, cops, firefighters. And picking fights over issues that intrigue Sacramento insiders, but leave average voters cold: the budgeting process and political redistricting.

* Calling a November special election that voters don’t want, polls show, and will cost state taxpayers at least $50 million.

So what can Schwarzenegger do to recover and return to the good old days of cheers rather than jeers? For starters:

* Cancel the special election, which stands to benefit only political operatives.

This could be done by the Legislature passing an “urgency” bill, on a two-thirds majority vote, and the governor signing it, according to Schwarzenegger’s legal secretary, Peter Siggins. But Siggins adds the governor isn’t considering it.

He should be.

“All his problems seem to relate to the special election,” says Republican analyst Tony Quinn. “For it to happen, he has to raise millions and millions of [campaign] dollars. Political consultants don’t seem to understand how much the public finds

incessant fundraising distasteful.”

Moreover, says Democratic consultant Bill Carrick, no politician is likely to benefit from a bitterly fought special election. “In this case, you could end up with everybody a loser,” Carrick says. “Everybody banged up.

Polarization in the extreme.”

* At the least, negotiate a bipartisan, alternative package of reforms for the ballot. That would spare Schwarzenegger a bruising fight, all but assure victory and show he can still work with Democrats.

* Then focus on issues people care most about, like improving schools and unclogging traffic.

* Spend more time in the seat of state government.

“The Sacramento platform is much more important than Bakersfield or Folsom or Santa Ana,” says veteran GOP strategist Ken Khachigian. “Those places are for a campaign mode. People don’t see this as a campaign time. To get the job done, you stay in the Capitol and do it.”

Schwarzenegger can emerge from the political grave, but only if he changes direction.