Bush Sees Middle East ‘Thaw’ on Democracy

President Bush on Tuesday praised new signs of change in the Middle East, declaring that “clearly and suddenly, the thaw has begun” that will allow democratic reforms in the region.

“By now it should be clear that authoritarian rule is not the wave of the future. It is the last gasp of a discredited past,” Bush said during a speech at National Defense University in Washington.

Speaking on the same day that half a million pro-Syrian demonstrators took to the streets in Beirut with anti-U.S. slogans, Bush called for “all Syrian military forces and intelligence personnel” to withdraw from Lebanon before May parliamentary elections, “for those elections to be free and fair.” He charged that Syrian President Bashar Assad’s recent promise of a phased pullout was a delaying tactic.

The television image of Bush criticizing Syria even while pro-Syrian demonstrations were in progress highlighted the complicated political landscape in the region.

The president praised the anti-Syrian protests that erupted after the Feb. 14 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, which had prompted the country’s pro-Syrian prime minister to resign.

Directing his remarks at the Lebanese people, Bush said: “All the world is witnessing your great movement of conscience. Lebanon’s future belongs in your hands, and by your courage, Lebanon’s future will be in your hands.”

Bush said Syria risked further isolation if it failed to act, but he did not elaborate on what that might entail or whether military force was an option.

The president also spoke broadly about the prospects for democracy in the Middle East. He likened the developments in Lebanon to the recent progress toward democracy in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Palestinian territories and to the tentative signs of a new openness to democratic reforms by the leaders of Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Bush also said Iran and other nations should view the Iraq elections as an example, seemingly inviting Iranians to rise up against their government.

The president’s remarks constituted one of the first major elaborations of his foreign policy vision, sketched out in his Jan. 20 inaugural address.

In that speech, he laid out a sweeping U.S. doctrine to “seek and support the growth of democratic movements and institutions in every nation and culture, with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.”

At the time, with the war in Iraq losing popularity and nuclear threats in Iran and North Korea gaining attention, critics decried the doctrine as unrealistic.

The president, speaking in subdued tones to several hundred military officials, students and think tank scholars, stopped short of taking credit for the changes.

He said change in the region required patience, given the entrenchment of tyrants and “deeply ingrained habits of fear” among people of the region.

“For all of these reasons, the chances of democratic progress in the broader Middle East have seemed frozen in place for decades,” he said. “Yet at last, clearly and suddenly, the thaw has begun.”

Middle East specialists said Bush’s speech was relatively restrained in its rhetoric. While he pointedly called on Iran to “listen to the concerns of the world” about its suspected nuclear weapons program and warned Syria and Iran to “stop using murder as a tool of policy,” the president stayed clear of inflammatory labels such as “axis of evil” -- a phrase referring to Iran, Iraq and North Korea that defined his 2002 State of the Union speech.

“He didn’t make threats, he didn’t name names, he had something good for everyone, but had requirements for everyone too, including Israel,” said Judith Kipper, director of the Middle East Forum at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. “Is this the new Bush?”

A cautious note was sounded by James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute, who accused Bush of oversimplifying the situation in Lebanon and across the Middle East.

Zogby cited a new poll conducted in conjunction with his brother’s U.S. firm, Zogby International, showing that far more Lebanese respondents blamed the United States and Israel for Hariri’s death than blamed Syria.

And about 45% of Lebanese in the survey considered the United States and Israel to be the beneficiaries of the slaying, while 11% said it benefited the Syrian government.

Although Bush’s speech Tuesday reflected optimism about the “thaw” in the region, the president leveled subtle warnings at U.S. allies that have been slow to change.

To Egypt, where Mubarak has ruled for 24 years but committed last month to allowing a multi-candidate presidential election this fall, Bush outlined the requirements of a free vote. The president did not mention the recent arrest of a leading opposition figure in Egypt, Ayman Nur, or reports Tuesday that the government was attempting to recall an edition of a weekly opposition newspaper.

But Bush gave Mubarak a clear nudge.

“Egypt has now -- has now the prospect of competitive, multi-party elections for president in September,” Bush said. “Like all free elections, these require freedom of assembly, multiple candidates, free access by those candidates to the media, and the right to form political parties.”

Bush also seemed to subtly tweak Saudi Arabia for its willingness to hold municipal elections but its insistence on barring participation by women.

“It should be clear that no society can advance with only half of its talent and energy,” he said. “And that demands the full participation of women.”