Math Adds Up for Weaver

In this laptop-driven Dodger world, comprehending certain statistical concepts is imperative.

A key notion is “regression to the mean,” which, in language even fans partial to off-color chants and fisticuffs can comprehend, means “water seeks its own level.”

Therefore, the fast start this season was bound to lead to losses. The hot hitting of Jeff Kent and Hee-Seop Choi was sure to be followed by slumps. The frigid bat of J.D. Drew was certain to heat up.

And struggling starter Jeff Weaver was due for a solid outing that would end the seemingly interminable stretch of the Dodgers’ dropping series to strong opponents.

A 6-3 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday at Bank One Ballpark didn’t only give the Dodgers two of three in the series and encourage players looking forward to a long homestand.

It comforted the front-office numbers crunchers trying to calculate the quality of the team.

Since May 8, the last time the Dodgers (26-23) won a series, they had lost three of four to St. Louis and two of three to Atlanta, Florida, the Angels and San Francisco. A natural statistical correction was becoming alarmingly close to a season-wrecking pattern, dropping the team to third place in the National League West.

Now the Dodgers have won three of four and are looking at 13 home games, including the first 10 against teams .500 or below. The computers can be put into sleep mode for a day or two.

“We bounced back in fine fashion,” Manager Jim Tracy said. “It was a good ballgame to build on.”

The only negative came when outfielder Milton Bradley hurt the ring finger on his right hand, getting jammed by a pitch in the ninth. X-rays were negative, but he is expected to sit out at least one game and is scheduled for an MRI test Tuesday.

“It felt like my finger pulled,” he said. “X-rays showed the bone under the finger is lower than in the other fingers, but everything is in place. I think it’s just bruised.”

Weaver (5-4), buoyed by five Dodger runs in the first three innings, went six strong innings. He pumped his fist every time a teammate made a good play, such as the running catch in the right-center field alley by Drew with a runner aboard in the fifth and the twisting throw from short left field by shortstop Cesar Izturis to retire Craig Counsell trying to stretch a bloop hit into a double in the sixth.

“This was pretty satisfying,” Weaver said. “Especially the way it’s been going for me the last few starts. For us to win two against a team ahead of us in the standings gets us moving in the right direction.”

The Dodgers jumped on Russ Ortiz (4-4) for three runs in the first. Izturis tripled, Jayson Werth doubled to drive him in, Drew walked, and with one out Bradley had a run-scoring single and, after a walk, Hee-Seop Choi hita sacrifice fly.

Izturis and Werth also had consecutive hits in the second inning, and Drew hit a sacrifice fly. And Bradley’s walk to open the third was cashed in on a two-out double by Jason Phillips.

Weaver struggled in the first two innings while making a mechanical adjustment in his delivery but got out of a bases-loaded jam in the first. Chris Snyder hit a two-run home run in the second, the ninth homer given up by Weaver in his last five starts.

But the Diamondbacks (29-22) were then quiet until scoring one in the ninth. Giovanni Carrara, whose ninth-inning meltdown Saturday was instrumental in a gut-wrenching loss, couldn’t record the final out, and Eric Gagne came on with two on. Jose Cruz Jr. singled to score a run, but Gagne struck out Shawn Green to notch his third save.

Antonio Perez, who played second to give Kent a day off, was two for three, giving him 11 hits in his last 15 at-bats and an average of .529 since coming off the disabled list.

It doesn’t take a math major to know he is due for a serious regression to the mean. But the recent Dodger struggles have taught the players to enjoy the good times while they last.

“There are ups and downs, and over the course of a six-month season they usually put you where you should have been all along,” Kent said. “It’s baseball.”