Egyptian Elections Will Test the Depth of Reforms

Prospects for political change in Egypt face another crucial test with parliamentary elections that start today and continue for a month in three stages. Opposition forces, especially the Muslim Brotherhood, expect to make significant gains. The ruling party of President Hosni Mubarak is seeking to project a reform-minded image, which critics have dismissed as a facade.

At stake is the question of whether politics will truly become more open in the Arab world’s most populous country.

Domestic and international pressure for reform has forced a partial loosening of the one-party authoritarian system that has been in place since 1952. Mubarak shocked the nation in February by calling for the first multi-candidate presidential elections; he won 88% of the vote amid reports of violations.

A bold new grass-roots opposition has broken taboos on direct criticism of the president. Even the officially banned Muslim Brotherhood has been allowed to campaign openly, fielding 150 technically independent candidates nationwide.

But opposition politicians and civilian activists remain deeply skeptical that the ruling National Democratic Party has loosened the reins.

“The NDP is the same as always. They depend on faulty voter registration, buying votes, thuggery,” said Kamal Khalil, a veteran activist and socialist running for a seat in parliament for the first time.

The presidential election in September garnered international attention but was inevitably an anticlimax. Mubarak, after a generation in power, was never in danger of losing. His closest challenger, Ayman Nour, received 7% of the vote.

In parliamentary elections, a strong ruling-party performance is not guaranteed. The NDP did miserably in the 2000 elections, winning just 38% of the 444 elected seats as numerous candidates lost to independents. But many of those winners then were compelled to join the NDP.

The result was an 89% majority for the ruling party in the parliament, with the Muslim Brotherhood, at 17 seats, the largest opposition bloc. The group, which renounced violence decades ago, remains officially banned and its members subject to periodic mass arrests. Government officials regularly cite the threat of a Muslim Brotherhood victory as the main reason to move slowly on full democratic reform.

This year, opposition politicians expect to pick up anywhere from 70 to 100 seats. Several parties have formed a united front, pledging not to field candidates against one another. The secularist front also maintains an arm’s-length alliance with the Muslim Brotherhood, which has been holding unhindered rallies for the first time in years under the slogan “Islam is the solution.”

Muslim Brotherhood spokesman Ali Abdel Fattah said the newfound room to operate was just a step toward true reform. “The improvements are cosmetic,” he said. “Democracy in Egypt for the near future will be a head without a body.”

The NDP’s anemic performance in 2000 prompted a ruling party shake-up, with the president’s son, Gamal, emerging at the head of an internal reform movement.

“It was a blessing in disguise,” said Mahmoud Mohieldin, minister of investment and a member of the younger Mubarak’s inner circle. The group has revamped the party’s image.

“This is the biggest test for the political reform movement in the NDP,” Mohieldin said. “You need to capture a majority ... to get your reform agenda passed.”

The next parliament will consider a rewrite of the Emergency Law in place for all of Hosni Mubarak’s 24-year rule, plus a continued transition to a free-market economy advocated by Mohieldin and Gamal Mubarak. It may oversee a presidential transition if the 77-year-old leader dies or steps down.

The parliament also holds a fair amount of power over day-to-day affairs and can override government policies and summon ministers for questioning.

“The government will never allow an independent parliament ever,” said Mohammed Sherdi, a candidate for the opposition Wafd party running in the Suez Canal city of Port Said. “It would produce years of chaos. All the files would be opened.”

Previous elections have seen widespread bribery, scare tactics and outright vote fraud. Sherdi, the son of a legendary Wafd politician, recalled that during the 1984 elections, ballot boxes “would arrive at the polling station already full.”

In 2000, with judges monitoring the polling stations for the first time, security forces and NDP toughs still controlled the streets outside the stations, reportedly attacking opposition supporters and roughing up journalists. In some districts where Muslim Brotherhood candidates had strong support, police prevented bearded men and veiled women from voting.

Early signs this year point to business as usual on the street level, opposition politicians and observers say.

Khalil’s volunteers said they were attacked by supporters of the local NDP candidate. Sherdi said government thugs had torn down his banners and admitted sending his own guys out to do the same.

An independent monitoring group called Shayfeencom (We Are Watching You) chose one Cairo district for preelection monitoring and found open intimidation and vandalism by supporters of the NDP candidate, much of it happening “in the presence of the security men,” said Ghada Shahbender, a group member.

All sides point to the disastrous state of the Egyptian voter lists as another major obstacle to fair elections. In the model of a Chicago-style political machine, Egypt’s voter rolls are a parade of dead people, multiple names and fictional voters.

Khalil, the socialist candidate, acknowledged that his efforts in the face of the NDP machine might be largely symbolic.

“One thousand votes would be the pinnacle of success because it would be 1,000 people we convinced,” he said. “I want at least an honorable loss.”

Jailan Zayan of The Times’ Cairo Bureau contributed to this report.