The Only Sure Thing Is Parity

New NFL season, same old NFL, which has this captivate-the-nation thing pretty much locked, streamlined down to a three-step science: Keep the handicappers guessing.

Keep the bettors off-balance.

And keep as many fans in as many cities excited about their team’s prospects for as long as possible.

San Francisco, which did not win a game in regulation in 2004, won its opener Sunday, beating the St. Louis Rams, 28-25, despite having no player rush for more than 22 yards or score during the game’s final 25 minutes.

Miami, a mess through all of last season, is 1-0 in 2005 because an old Denver Bronco named Gus Frerotte passed for 275 yards and two touchdowns to lead his new teammates to a 34-10 triumph over the new but evidently not improved Broncos.

Kansas City, which devoted its last three seasons to the notion that the best offense cannot carry a lousy defense very long at all, put up 27 points against the New York Jets -- bit of a sluggish start for the Chiefs on that side of the ball -- but came within half a minute of recording its first shutout in a decade, finally settling for a 27-7 victory.

Tampa Bay, a paltry 12-20 since its Super Bowl triumph three seasons ago, went to Minnesota and left Cadillac skid marks all over the Metrodome carpet, rookie Carnell “Cadillac” Williams rushing for 148 yards in a 24-13 upset of the favorites to win the NFC North championship this season.

Dallas, basing its rehabilitation program on a 33-year-old quarterback who can’t run, went to San Diego and turned three touchdown passes by Drew Bledsoe into a 28-24 victory over the defending champions of the AFC West.

No one really knows who’s bad in this league in 2005.

And no one can totally be sure, at this point, who’s really good.

Carolina, Sports Illustrated’s preseason choice to win the Super Bowl, lost at home to a New Orleans Saints team without a home, 23-20, John Carney’s last-second field goal hopefully lifting the spirits of a region devastated by Hurricane Katrina.

Arizona, penciled in as this season’s trendy team-on-the-rise by too many people who ought to know better, lost to the New York Giants, 42-19, proving the Giants might have been on to something after all when they moved Kurt Warner out to make room for Eli Manning.

Green Bay, 8-1 in its previous nine meetings with Detroit, failed to score a touchdown for the first time since 1992 and lost to the Lions, 17-3.

(Side note about those losses by the Packers and the Vikings: Brett Favre and Daunte Culpepper combined to commit eight turnovers -- five interceptions and three lost fumbles -- a statistical quirk that doesn’t figure to happen again for the remainder of their playing careers. Then again, this is the NFL.)

(Side note about those victories by the 49ers and the Dolphins: San Francisco and Miami winning on the same Sunday used to happen all the time, but that was back when Steve Young and Dan Marino were still polishing their Hall of Fame resumes. More recently, the 49ers and the Dolphins have been quarterbacked by the likes of Tim Rattay, Jay Fiedler and Frerotte. More recently, 49er-Dolphin Sunday sweeps have been scarce.)

Even the supposedly parity-proof New England Patriots encountered some nervous moments in their Thursday night opener against Oakland. The two-time defending Super Bowl champions led only 17-14 in the third quarter before restoring some order to the new season by winning, 30-20.

As for the Philadelphia Eagles, well, they play on national television tonight, Terrell Owens on “Monday Night Football,” Michael Vick quarterbacking the opposition. In other words, your guess is as good as anyone’s.

Nobody really should be surprised by Sunday’s results, even though a lot of people with bookies on speed dial were. A large segment of the NFL fan base -- often referred to as “Fantasy Nation” -- doesn’t care half as much about victories and defeats as individual yardage and touchdown totals. And for them, there were these Week 1 shockers:

* Charger running back LaDainian Tomlinson, consensus can’t-miss top pick for fantasy leaguers everywhere, netted 72 yards in 19 carries against the Cowboys.

* Jet running Curtis Martin was held to 57 yards in 20 carries by a Kansas City defense that hasn’t finished any of the last three seasons ranked higher than 29th in the league.

* Culpepper threw three interceptions, lost two fumbles and failed to complete a touchdown pass for the first time in 22 games during an 11-point home loss to the Buccaneers.

* Favre, still regarded as a good-value pick, had two interceptions and lost a fumble as the Packers produced their lowest point total since before Favre was their No. 1 quarterback. The last time Green Bay scored as few as three points in a game was a 31-3 loss to Tampa Bay on Sept. 13, 1992 -- two games before Favre began his record streak of 226 consecutive games started for the Packers.

In other words, nobody was safe on Opening Sunday. And some were made to look positively foolish -- i.e., those NFL “experts” who assured us that all Warner needed was a few whiffs of desert air to resuscitate his career and turn the Cardinals into this year’s version of the ’04 Chargers.

On second thought: Warner lost his Arizona debut by 23 points to the team that put him on the bench in ’04. Eli Manning still has a ways to go to uphold his end of the Manning NFL legacy, but his two-touchdown, 172-yard passing performance was efficient enough to justify the Giants’ faith, at least when Warner was the best other option.

Warner passed for 264 yards, one touchdown and one interception -- and watched from the sideline as Josh McCown mopped up the last of the fourth quarter.

So the Giants guessed right.

In the NFL, the league that begins all contests with a coin flip that is as symbolic as it is practical, that is considered rock-solid planning.