Handicapping the big races

From favorites to longshots: ranking the Oscar contenders

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BEST PICTURE

TOM O’NEIL, Gold Derby

1. “Brokeback Mountain” An overdue director. A-list stars. A box-office hit with a key social message. It all adds up to heavy favorite.

2. “Crash” Low-budget powerhouse was one of 2005’s top-grossing dramas. Could pull off an upset thanks to passionate industry support.

3. “Good Night, and Good Luck” Because liberal Hollywood loves Clooney’s slap at conservative Washington, this one has a real chance.

4. “Munich” Spielberg’s admirable failure doesn’t have enough support to be redeemed here.

5. “Capote” Philip Seymour Hoffman’s performance is so dynamic that it upstages the film.

STEVE POND, Oscar Beat

1. “Brokeback Mountain” Doesn’t feel invincible. Then again, what’s going to knock it off?

2. “Good Night, and Good Luck” Smart and stylish, but probably not grand enough for Oscar’s tastes.

3. “Crash” This film has its zealots -- but does it have enough of them?

4. “Munich” Wounded by critics and stung by an underwhelming showing at the box office.

5. “Capote” Pitch perfect picture is simply too small for the big prize.

BEST DIRECTOR

TOM O’NEIL, Gold Derby

1. Ang Lee, “Brokeback Mountain” Finally, it’s his year. Maybe. Almost. Definitely.

2. Paul Haggis,“Crash” Academy members owe him one. If “Crash” pulls off a best pic upset, Haggis could triumph here too.

3. George Clooney, “Good Night, and Good Luck” Voters are smitten with studly actors turned directors, but there’s more admiration than love this time out.

4. Steven Spielberg, “Munich” The nomination is his reward for a noble effort.

5. Bennett Miller, “Capote” This rookie can come to the Oscar party but can’t sit at the front table -- yet.

STEVE POND, Oscar Beat

1. Ang Lee,“Brokeback Mountain” After all the other awards and acclaim, it’d seem petty not to give it to him.

2. George Clooney, “Good Night, andGood Luck” The often unpredictable actors’ branch has done stranger things.

3. Paul Haggis, “Crash” Sure the film ignited viewer passions, but it also has too many detractors.

4. Steven Spielberg, “Munich” For the first time in his life, it’s an accomplishment just to be nominated.

5. Bennett Miller, “Capote” First time’s a charm -- for a nomination. It’s too soon for a win, though.

BEST ACTOR

TOM O’NEIL, Gold Derby

1. Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Capote” After grabbing the Globe and all those critics’ awards, it seems as if he’s already won this race.

2. Terrence Howard, “Hustle & Flow” Campaigning with gusto. And Hollywood likes his chops, grit and heart. Upset possible.

3. Heath Ledger, “Brokeback Mountain” If there’s a “Brokeback” sweep, this cowboy may come along for the ride.

4. Joaquin Phoenix,“Walk the Line” It looked like the Oscar was his. Until Hoffman and Ledger came along.

5. David Strathairn, “Good Night, and Good Luck” Dead-on portrayal of Edward R. Murrow is too deadly stoic.

STEVE POND, Oscar Beat

1. Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Capote” Has clearly seized leader status.

2. Heath Ledger “Brokeback Mountain” “Brokeback” momentum could easily push him to a win.

3. Joaquin Phoenix,“Walk the Line” His chances have run off the road of late.

4. David Strathairn, “Good Night, and Good Luck” A solid turn that gets lost amid flashier performances.

5. Terrence Howard, “Hustle & Flow” A breakthrough year that needed to be recognized -- with a nomination.

BEST ACTRESS

TOM O’NEIL, Gold Derby

1. Felicity Huffman, “Transamerica” She gives the best performance, she uglifies herself for her art and this DVD screener will be seen by most academy voters for the first time next week.

2. Reese Witherspoon, “Walk the Line” The “Legally Blonde” comedy queen can also do drama. And she can sing too. Deserves an Oscar just for putting up with Johnny Cash.

3. Keira Knightley,“Pride & Prejudice” Just the kind of perky, sexy ingenue who sometimes pulls off upsets.

4. Charlize Theron,“North Country” She’s already had her turn at Oscar’s podium.

5. Judi Dench, “Mrs. Henderson Presents” Voters love her feisty defiance, but this movie’s a comedy. Then again, so was “Shakespeare in Love.”

STEVE POND, Oscar Beat

1. Reese Witherspoon, “Walk the Line” Probably has enough spunk to hold off Huffman ...

2. Felicity Huffman, “Transamerica” ... but never rule out a de-glammed tour de force.

3. Judi Dench, “Mrs. Henderson Presents” An Oscar fave with a Weinstein campaign push. Still won’t be enough this year.

4. Charlize Theron,“North Country” Nice job, but you won two years ago.

5. Kiera Knightley,“Pride and Prejudice” The academy loves ingenues ... not in this category, though.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

TOM O’NEIL, Gold Derby

1. George Clooney, “Syriana” After so many big creative chances this year, he’ll probably win for getting fat.

2. Paul Giamatti, “Cinderella Man” He was snubbed in “Sideways,” but Hollywood’s most lovable loser could get a consolation hug.

3. Matt Dillon,“Crash” There’s a remote chance that voters might reward this heartthrob for taking on such an unflattering role.

4. Jake Gyllenhaal, “Brokeback Mountain” Mad Oscar love for gay cowboys means Jake could be embraced too. But he’s upstaged by his costar’s epic suffering.

5. William Hurt,“A History of Violence” He scared up a surprise nom as a ruthless thug, but villain roles rarely win.

STEVE POND, Oscar Beat

1. Paul Giamatti, “Cinderella Man” Uh, sorry we didn’t nominate you for “Sideways” ...

2. George Clooney, “Syriana” ... and sorry we couldn’t give you anything for “Good Night.”

3. Matt Dillon,“Crash” Oscar always loves a comeback story. But does this really qualify?

4. Jake Gyllenhaal, “Brokeback Mountain” He rides to the top only if there’s a “Brokeback” sweep.

5. William Hurt,“A History of Violence” Welcome back, big guy.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

TOM O’NEIL, Gold Derby

1. Rachel Weisz,“The Constant Gardener” Exotic, gorgeous, mischievously sexy. And she dies while trying to save the world. Who can beat that?

2. Michelle Williams, “Brokeback Mountain” Long-suffering-wife role has paid off for others in this race -- and might again if there’s a “Brokeback” bandwagon.

3. Catherine Keener, “Capote” Hollywood adores her because she’s hip in a highbrow way, especially as writer Harper Lee.

4. Frances McDormand, “North Country” Everybody loves her sly humor, wise soul and warm heart. Potential for a surprise.

5. Amy Adams,“Junebug” Utterly charming as a Southern chatterbox who’s pregnant and lonely, but the role lacks artistic pretense.

STEVE POND, Oscar Beat

1. Rachel Weisz,“The Constant Gardener” The emotional heart of a film that has a lot of support.

2. Michelle Williams, “Brokeback Mountain” It could happen. Never count out an ingenue in this category.

3. Catherine Keener, “Capote” Underplaying is never a recipe for victory. Especially here.

4. Amy Adams, “Junebug” The early bird gets the nomination. And that’s about all.

5. Frances McDormand, “North Country” She won before, so she’s always on the radar screen.