Some Wonder If Chertoff Can Survive

A year ago, when Michael Chertoff was brought in to run the Department of Homeland Security, he was hailed by Republicans and Democrats as the epitome of competence and good judgment. At his confirmation hearing, one Democratic senator called him “the right man for this job.” The Senate confirmed him, 98 to 0.

But as evidence mounts of the department’s botched response to Hurricane Katrina, Chertoff’s reputation has been impugned. Now some question whether he can survive in the job. The most telling sign of how much heat the Homeland Security secretary is under may be that members of his own party are throwing logs on the fire.

“It’s fair to say that he’s vulnerable,” said Republican Sen. Norm Coleman of Minnesota, a member of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, which has been investigating the government’s response to Katrina for several months. Chertoff, Coleman said, “came in with really high expectations. He was a star. Now his halo has been diminished.”

Today, one year to the day after he was sworn in, Chertoff is scheduled to testify before the committee -- and is expected to face tough questioning. (He was originally scheduled to appear Tuesday, but the hearing was delayed.) Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.), the committee member who praised Chertoff as the right man for the job, expressed dismay Tuesday over how the department had responded to Katrina.

“We have found enough pre-landfall warnings of Hurricane Katrina’s destructive force to warrant a full-bore emergency response from the top levels of the federal government before the storm struck,” Lieberman said. “It is inconceivable to me how the response could have been so weak.”

The White House came to Chertoff’s defense Tuesday, its words reminiscent of President Bush’s praise for Michael D. Brown, the head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency who was forced to resign when his mishandling of the disaster became known.

“Chertoff is doing a great job,” White House spokesman Scott McClellan said in answer to a reporter’s question. “The president appreciates his strong leadership.” Chertoff, McClellan said, “is someone who is committed to doing everything he can to protect the American people and to continuing to take steps to make sure we are better prepared to respond to the threats that we face.”

In September, the president -- visiting New Orleans a few days after the storm hit -- said to Brown, “Brownie, you’re doing a heck of a job.” Ten days later, Brown resigned under pressure. FEMA is part of the Homeland Security Department, and Brown reported to Chertoff.

Upcoming reports on the government’s disaster response effort are likely to hold more bad news for Chertoff.

A select committee investigating Katrina in the GOP-controlled House plans to issue a 600-page report today that accuses Homeland Security of having a “blinding lack of situational awareness and disjointed decision making” that “needlessly compounded and prolonged Katrina’s horrors.”

The president’s domestic security advisor, Frances Townsend, who is heading the White House inquiry on Katrina, is also about to make her report public. A draft version is said to pin much of the blame for the government’s ineffectual response on weak management in Chertoff’s department.

A big part of Chertoff’s problem is that Brown’s shortcomings are judged to have been so apparent when measured against the death and destruction of Hurricane Katrina that blaming him for the government’s failings may be politically insufficient.

As Coleman put it: “Chertoff should have known that his battleground commander didn’t have command.”

Chertoff has embarked on a campaign to restore his reputation. Monday he outlined plans to better integrate FEMA into Homeland Security. And defenders note that in August, before Katrina hit, Chertoff unveiled what he called a “second-stage review,” in which he described a planned reorganization of his department that included strengthening FEMA.

“Our responsibilities certainly include not only fighting the forces of terrorism, but also fighting the forces of natural disasters,” he said at the time.

Homeland Security press secretary William “Russ” Knocke said Tuesday that, “unlike some, the secretary’s focus is on preparing FEMA for the next storm season and dramatically strengthening preparedness in our country.”

Some domestic security experts said that to blame Chertoff was missing the point. James J. Carafano, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, said the House committee report showed that when Katrina hit, there was no effective national structure for disaster response.

“Headlines are asking whether we should be pointing the finger at Chertoff or Brown, but the point is there’s a whole slew of problems they identified,” he said. “I don’t think the response would have been much different no matter who it was, because we lack the capacity.”

Given the political climate in Washington, in which Republicans are beginning to worry that the problems of the Bush administration might become their own, Chertoff may still be vulnerable.

“If pressure builds on the administration to find a second scapegoat, it’s Michael Chertoff,” said Paul C. Light, a New York University professor of government organization.

At the same time, “it takes an awful lot for President Bush to remove a Cabinet officer,” said Norman J. Ornstein, a political analyst for the American Enterprise Institute. Citing the case of former Treasury Secretary Paul H. O’Neill, Ornstein said, “Usually it takes signs of insubordination. If you have demonstrated loyalty, the president will bend over backward to keep you.”

Times staff writers Nicole Gaouette and Peter Wallsten contributed to this report.