And the winner will be ...

A look at recent Academy Award nominees for best picture (winners in gold, nominees in blue) and how often industry guilds and critics groups predicted Oscar gold.

2005

If Oscar voters keep to form, Brokeback should be the favorite. Munich knocked more critically acclaimed Walk the Line out of contention.

Brokeback Mountain

Directors Guild: Winner

Critics’ Choice: Winner

Golden Globes: Winner

Writers Guild: Winner

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Winner

*

Crash

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Not nominated

Writers Guild: Winner

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Winner

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

Good Night, Good Luck

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Winner

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

Capote

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Not nominated

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

Munich

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Not nominated

Writers Guild: Not nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Not nominated

Producers Guild: Not nominated

--

2004

In a surprise longshot win, Baby nabbed the Directors Guild nod and the Oscar over favorite Sideways and also-ran Aviator.

Sideways

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Winner

Golden Globes: Winner

Writers Guild: Winner

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Winner

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

The Aviator

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Winner

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Winner

*

Million Dollar Baby (Academy Award Winner)

Directors Guild: Winner

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

Finding Neverland

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Not nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Winner

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

Ray

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Not nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Not nominated

--

2003

After two failed attempts at the big prize, Rings was the favorite the third time around and took home the statue.

Lord of the Rings III (Academy Award Winner)

Directors Guild: Winner

Critics’ Choice: Winner

Golden Globes: Winner

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Not nominated

Screen Actors: Winner

Producers Guild: Winner

*

Lost in Translation

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Winner

Writers Guild: Winner

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Not nominated

Producers Guild: Not nominated

*

Mystic River

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Winner

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

Master and Commander

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Not nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Not nominated

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

Seabiscuit

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Nominated

--

2002

In a showdown with The Hours, Chicago claimed the three best predictors and the Oscar nod. Pianist was a longshot nominee.

Chicago (Academy Award Winner)

Directors Guild: Winner

Critics’ Choice: Winner

Golden Globes: Winner

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Winner

Producers Guild: Winner

*

The Hours

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Winner

Writers Guild: Winner

Nat’l Board of Review:Winner

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Not nominated

*

Gangs of New York

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Not nominated

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

Lord of the Rings II

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Not nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Not nominated

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

The Pianist

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Not nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Not nominated

Producers Guild: Not nominated

--

2001

In a three-way race, favorite Beautiful Mind nudged out Moulin Rouge while Gosford Park never had a chance.

A Beautiful Mind (Academy Award Winner)

Directors Guild: Winner

Critics’ Choice: Winner

Golden Globes: Winner

Writers Guild: Winner

Nat’l Board of Review: Not nominated

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

Moulin Rouge

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Winner

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Winner

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Winner

*

Lord of the Rings I

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Not nominated

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

Gosford Park

Directors Guild: Not nominated

Critics’ Choice: Not nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Winner

Nat’l Board of Review: Not nominated

Screen Actors: Winner

Producers Guild: Not nominated

*

In the Bedroom

Directors Guild: Not nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Not nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Not nominated

--

2000

In a field lacking voter consensus, the favorite Gladiator beat out Traffic for the top prize. Chocolat was a longshot nominee.

Gladiator (Academy Award Winner)

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Winner

Golden Globes: Winner

Writers Guild: Not nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Winner

*

Traffic

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Winner

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Winner

Producers Guild: Not nominated

*

Crouching Tiger

Directors Guild: Winner

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Not nominated

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Not nominated

Screen Actors: Not nominated

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

Erin Brockovich

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Not nominated

Screen Actors: Not nominated

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

Chocolat

Directors Guild: Not nominated

Critics’ Choice: Not nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Not nominated

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Not nominated

--

1999

In the most predictable race in recent times, Beauty took the trophy. Sixth Sense and Green Mile filled out a weak field.

American Beauty (Academy Award Winner)

Directors Guild: Winner

Critics’ Choice: Winner

Golden Globes: Winner

Writers Guild: Winner

Nat’l Board of Review: Winner

Screen Actors: Winner

Producers Guild: Winner

*

The Insider

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Not nominated

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

The Cider House Rules

Directors Guild: Not nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Not nominated

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Not nominated

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

The Sixth Sense

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Not nominated

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Not nominated

Screen Actors: Not nominated

Producers Guild: Not nominated

*

The Green Mile

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Not nominated

Writers Guild: Not nominated

Nat’l Board of Review:

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Not nominated

--1998

In a two-picture horserace, the underdog Shakespeare beat out front-runner Private Ryan in a surprise finish. Another weak ballot.

Saving Private Ryan

Directors Guild: Winner

Critics’ Choice: Winner

Golden Globes: Winner

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Winner

*

Shakespeare in Love (Academy Award Winner)

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Winner

Writers Guild: Winner

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Winner

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

Life Is Beautiful

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Not nominated

Writers Guild: Not nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Not nominated

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

The Thin Red Line

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Not nominated

Writers Guild: Not nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Not nominated

Producers Guild: Not nominated

*

Elizabeth

Directors Guild: Not nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Not nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Not nominated

Producers Guild: Not nominated

--

1997

The blockbuster Titanic nabbed the top prize in a muddled yet consistent field. Conventional wisdom picked Confidential.

Titanic (Academy Award Winner)

Directors Guild: Winner

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Winner

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Winner

*

L.A. Confidential

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Winner

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Winner

Nat’l Board of Review: Winner

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

As Good As It Gets

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Winner

Writers Guild: Winner

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Not nominated

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

Good Will Hunting

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

The Full Monty

Directors Guild: Not nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Winner

Producers Guild: Not nominated

--

1996

Slight favorite English Patient inched out Fargo and Shine to take the top prize. Jerry Maguire was the surprise nominee.

The English Patient (Academy Award Winner)

Directors Guild: Winner

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Winner

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Winner

*

Fargo

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Winner

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Winner

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Not nominted

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

Shine

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Winner

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

Jerry Maguire

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Not nominated

Producers Guild: Not nominated

*

Secrets & Lies

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Not nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Not nominated

Producers Guild: Not nominated

--

1995

Longshot Braveheart beat out twin favorites Sensibility and Apollo. Postino and Babe surprised with nods.

Sense and Sensibility

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Winner

Golden Globes: Winner

Writers Guild: Winner

Nat’l Board of Review:

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Nominated

*

Apollo 13

Directors Guild: Winner

Critics’ Choice: Not nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Winner

Producers Guild: Winner

*

Braveheart (Academy Award Winner)

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Not nominated

Golden Globes: Nominated

Writers Guild: Winner

Nat’l Board of Review: Nominated

Screen Actors: Not nominated

Producers Guild: Not nominated

*

Babe

Directors Guild: Not nominated

Critics’ Choice: Not nominated

Golden Globes: Winner

Writers Guild: Nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Not nominated

Screen Actors: Not nominated

Producers Guild: Not nominated

*

Il Postino

Directors Guild: Nominated

Critics’ Choice: Not nominated

Golden Globes: Not nominated

Writers Guild: Not nominated

Nat’l Board of Review: Not nominated

Screen Actors: Nominated

Producers Guild: Not nominated

--

Note: Directors Guild award for outstanding directorial achievement, Golden Globe awards for best picture drama and musical or comedy, Writers Guild awards for best original and adapted screenplays, Producers Guild award for producer of the year, Screen Actors award for outstanding performance by a cast. National Board of Review nominees from Top 10 list. A white space represents no nomination.

*

Sources: Internet Movie Database, Directors Guild of America, Broadcast Film Critics Assn., Hollywood Foreign Press Assn., Writers Guild of America, National Board of Review, Producers Guild of America and Screen Actors Guild.

Graphics reporting by Brady MacDonald