Bush’s Ratings Sink, but Trust Remains

As President Bush prepares for next week’s State of the Union address, he faces widespread discontent over his job performance and the nation’s direction that could threaten his party in the 2006 election, a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has found.

In the survey, 43% of Americans said they approved of Bush’s performance as president -- his weakest showing ever in a Times poll.

He received even lower marks for his handling of the economy, healthcare and Iraq -- especially from women, who the poll found had turned against him on several fronts. And by a 2-1 ratio, those surveyed said the nation needed to change direction from the overall course Bush had set.

But most of those surveyed believed Bush’s policies had made the nation more secure. And a plurality say they trusted him more than they did Democrats to protect the country against terrorism -- advantages that could help Republicans defend their House and Senate majorities in November.

The poll found a majority still willing to take tough steps to reduce the risk of terrorism -- including surrendering some of their civil liberties and supporting military action against Iran if it continues to advance toward developing nuclear weapons.

The contrasting findings frame what could be a crucial dynamic in this year’s elections: Whether broad, though slightly eroded, confidence in Bush’s handling of terrorism will outweigh persistent dissatisfaction over his performance on domestic concerns and the war in Iraq.

The Times/Bloomberg poll, supervised by Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 1,555 adults Sunday through Wednesday; its margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The poll findings pose another key question: Can Democrats significantly benefit from discontent over Bush and the congressional GOP majority while suffering their own image problems?

Just 36% expressed a favorable opinion of congressional Democrats, whereas 45% viewed them unfavorably. That’s statistically the same as the showing for congressional Republicans, who were viewed favorably by 38% and unfavorably by 44%.

“I was watching the news ... and I heard nothing from the Democrats,” said Dez Jackson, 20, a cashier in Greenville, S.C., who was sharply critical of the president in the survey. “What are they, afraid to speak up?”

Even amid such doubts about Democrats, the poll is crowded with warning signs for Bush and his fellow Republicans.

Countering the 43% who approved of Bush’s performance, 54% disapproved -- figures in line with results from other national polls in the last two weeks.

The Times/Bloomberg poll found that 31% agreed the country was “better off because of ... Bush’s policies and should proceed in the direction that he set out,” whereas 62% said the nation needed “to move in a new direction.”

Among voting blocs, two-thirds of women and independents -- as well as 71% of moderates -- said the nation needed to change course.

Just 35% of respondents said they approved of Congress’ performance; 55% disapproved. And Democrats were favored, 46% to 37%, when registered voters were asked which party they intended to support for Congress in November.

That finding underscored the extent to which the GOP’s fate this year may be linked to Bush’s standing. About 7 of every 10 registered voters who approved of Bush’s performance said they intended to vote for GOP candidates this fall, whereas 7 in 10 of those who disapproved said they planned to vote for Democrats.

Harold Bunch, an independent and a retired industrial arts teacher in Edgewood, Ky., was among those who planned to vote for Democrats to express his dissatisfaction with Bush.

“Most of the Republican majority that’s in there now is backing Mr. Bush on everything he wants to do, and ... I want to see somebody put the brakes on him and slow him down a little bit,” said Bunch, who has voted Republican in every presidential election from 1960 until 2004, when he backed Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.).

The poll found that attitudes toward Bush remained polarized along party lines. About 4 in 5 Republicans said they approved of his performance, whereas 4 of every 5 Democrats disapproved.

Tilting the balance away from Bush, nearly 3 in 5 independents disapproved; in the 2004 election, Bush ran almost even with Kerry among these voters.

Also in 2004, Bush narrowed the gender gap -- the tendency for women to lean toward Democrats. But it reopened in the new survey -- 36% of women said they approved of his performance, compared with 50% of men.

Under Bush, the Republican electoral strategy has focused on generating a large turnout from strong supporters. But in the survey, significantly more Americans (39%) said they strongly disapproved of Bush’s performance than strongly approved of it (25%). Among women, 43% strongly disapproved.

One of these was Annette Sargent, an independent and a nondenominational minister in Reynoldsburg, Ohio, a suburb of Columbus.

“I want a change in direction,” she said. “The economy, the way this is going, I feel that ... we are going to be standing in a soup line. And the war [in Iraq] is going to continue and continue, and it is going to be more young people that are dying.”

Bush supporters, in explaining their views, emphasized his response to the terrorism threat and the personal values he projected.

Pat Maxwell, an office manager from Oberlin, La., who grew up as a Democrat, typified the attitudes that connected Bush to his base.

“My big thing is the safety of our country, and I believe we are safer,” she said. “And one thing I admire about him is he is a Christian and he doesn’t mind letting people know about it.”

Regular churchgoers remain a cornerstone of Bush’s support: More than three-fifths of whites who attend religious services at least once a week approved of his performance. Among whites who attend religious services less frequently or never, nearly three-fifths disapproved.

On national security issues, Bush’s position has deteriorated from its high point after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. For instance, 48% said they approved of Bush’s performance in fighting terrorism, whereas 49% disapproved -- the first time he has fallen below 50% on that issue in a Times survey.

By 56% to 41%, those surveyed also disapproved of his handling of the Iraq war.

But other measures point toward a continuing Bush advantage on security questions. When asked who could do a better job of protecting the nation against terrorism, 45% picked Bush, whereas 32% chose congressional Democrats. Independents give Bush a decisive 19-percentage-point edge.

Similarly, 52% said Bush’s policies had made the nation more secure, whereas 21% said he had left the nation less secure -- and 25% said he had made no difference.

“Because they are watching everything and scrutinizing everything a little bit better, I do feel we are more secure,” said Donna Cho, a registered nurse and Republican from Anaheim.

The public generally tilts toward Bush on a series of domestic security issues now dividing him from Democrats, the survey found.

By 51% to 40%, those polled said Americans “should be willing to give up some of their civil liberties” to fight terrorism.

A solid majority, 59% to 33%, said Congress should reauthorize the Patriot Act. A dispute over privacy rights that has pitted Bush against virtually all Senate Democrats and a few of the chamber’s Republicans has stalled renewal of the anti-terrorism measure.

A narrow plurality, 49% to 45%, said they supported Bush’s decision to allow the National Security Agency to intercept, without a warrant, international communications suspected of links to Al Qaeda.

A large share, 46%, said they would not mind if the government monitored their calls “as part of the fight against terrorism”; 53% said they would object.

Maxwell, the office manager in Louisiana, was among those who said she would not complain. “I have nothing to hide,” she said. “As long as it is used to protect our country, it is fine.”

Still, a majority of those polled said they wanted Congress to hold hearings on the spying program. And nearly two-fifths (including almost three-fifths of Democrats) said they would consider it an impeachable offense if a congressional investigation concluded that Bush broke the law in authorizing the program.

Concerns about ethics may not be as much a threat to Republicans as Democrats hope, according to the poll. Fully 68% of those surveyed said they saw no difference between the parties on honesty and integrity; 14% picked Republicans as more ethical and 13% picked Democrats. The rest were unsure.

Likewise, though more than three-fifths of those surveyed gave Congress poor grades for ethics, a nearly identical percentage gave their own legislators high marks.

On domestic issues, Bush faces broad skepticism. Nearly 3 in 5 of those polled said they disapproved of his handling of the economy. And pluralities said they trusted Democrats more than Bush to handle the federal budget deficit and taxes, two traditional Republican strengths.

On healthcare, an issue aides say Bush intended to emphasize in Tuesday’s State of the Union speech, his standing is even more precarious. Nearly two-thirds of those polled said they disapproved of his handling of healthcare, whereas just over one-fourth approved.

“The president talks a good game, but I don’t think he’s doing anything to improve the country in healthcare or taxes or anything,” said Keri Wilson, an independent and stay-at-home mother in Brockton, Mass.

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Hard numbers

Highlights from the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll:

54% - Disapprove of President Bush’s job performance.

62% - Think the country needs to move in a new direction.

45% - Trust Bush to protect the nation against terrorism.

46% - Intend to vote for Democrats in the November elections.

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Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Politics, ethics in government and the situation in Iraq

Q: Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track?

Wrong track: 61%

Right direction: 32%

Don’t know: 7%

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Q: Is the U.S. better off because of George W. Bush’s policies, and should it proceed in the direction he set out or not?

Needs a new direction: 62%

Continue current policies: 31%

Don’t know: 7%

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Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling...

*--* Don’t Approve Disapprove know his job as president 43% 54% 3% situation in Iraq 41 56 3 war on terrorism 48 49 3 the economy 37 59 4 cost and availability of healthcare in U.S. 27 64 9 ethics in government 43 47 10

*--*

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Q: Do you think George W. Bush...

*--* Don’t Yes No know is honest and trustworthy 46% 47% 7% is a strong leader 50 46 4 has fulfilled his promise to restore honesty and integrity to the White House 32 60 8

*--*

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Q: The Patriot Act gave the government greater powers to access records, perform wiretaps and use other means to locate terrorists. Congress will be voting on whether to reauthorize some provisions of the bill that will expire this year. Do you agree more with:

those who want to reauthorize provisions: 59%

those who want to allow them to expire: 33%

Don’t know: 8%

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Q: Which of the following statements comes closer to your view: Americans should...

give up civil liberties for safety from terrorism: 51%

protect civil liberties: 40%

don’t know: 9%

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Q: George W. Bush authorized federal government agencies to use electronic surveillance to monitor phone calls and e-mails within the U.S. without first getting a court warrant to do so. Do you consider this:

Acceptable: 49%

Unacceptable: 45%

Don’t know: 6%

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Q: Would you mind if you found out that your phone calls were being monitored by the U.S. government as part of the fight against terrorism?

Would mind: 53%

Wouldn’t mind: 46%

Don’t know: 1%

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Q: How would you rate Congress on ethics and honesty:

Excellent/Good: 31%

Not so good/Poor: 64%

Don’t know: 5%

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Q: Which party in Congress do you think has higher standards of honesty and integrity?

Republicans: 14%

Democrats: 13%

No difference: 68%

Don’t know: 5%

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Q: Who do you think is winning the war in Iraq?

U.S.: 33%

Insurgents in Iraq: 7%

Neither U.S. nor insurgents: 55%

Don’t know: 5%

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Q: Over the next year, do you expect the situation in Iraq to:

Get better: 34%

Get worse: 19%

Remain the same: 44%

Don’t know: 3%

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Q: Do you believe George W. Bush when he says that the U.S. military is making a lot of progress in making Iraq a safe, democratic country, or not?

Believe him: 45%

Don’t believe him: 50%

Don’t know: 5%

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Q: How long do you think the U.S. should maintain a significant number of troops in Iraq?

Should get out now: 14%

One year or less: 22%

One-two years: 7%

More than two years: 2%

As long as it takes: 40%

Set amount of time, but not sure how long: 11%

Don’t know: 4%

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Note: All results are among adults polled nationwide.

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Poll results, analysis and exact wording of questions can be found at latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll.

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How the poll was conducted

The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll contacted 1,555 adults nationwide by telephone Sunday through Wednesday. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation, and random-digit dialing techniques allowed listed and unlisted numbers to be contacted. Multiple attempts were made to contact each number. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results may also be affected by factors such as question wording and the order in which questions were presented.

Sources: Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll