Bush to Speak on Immigration

With the Senate set to resume debate on immigration, President Bush will make a prime-time televised speech Monday in which he will probably outline a broader role for the National Guard and possibly for private firms to help with security on the border.

Those measures appear aimed at raising the comfort level among conservative Republicans with provisions of a Senate immigration bill that many of them oppose, including proposals for a guest worker program that could bring new foreign workers into the country and a pathway to legal status for millions of illegal immigrants already here.

Bush’s speech, scheduled for 8 p.m. EST, is meant to build momentum in Congress to pass an overhaul of immigration laws.

The Senate bill would increase border security and establish a guest worker program allowing participants to work toward citizenship. It would also give most of the nation’s estimated 12 million undocumented immigrants a way to earn citizenship, based on the length of their stay in the United States.

Many House Republicans oppose the Senate bill and support House legislation, approved in December, that focuses solely on border security and enforcement of immigration laws. It would build a 700-mile wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and make illegal presence in the United States a felony.

Deploying National Guard troops is one of several measures that could reassure conservatives who prefer the House bill, possibly increasing the chances of drawing them to the Senate’s approach.

Some members of Congress and Southwestern governors have been pushing the administration to use National Guard troops to support the Border Patrol, a move that has been used in the past but with considerable controversy.

A senior White House official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he did not want to be identified while discussing a speech still in formation, said Bush would outline a role for the National Guard to help Border Patrol agents protect the borders and said that could involve surveillance, detection or construction, rather than conventional law enforcement and apprehension work.

The White House official also said that the president might propose a role for private companies, and gave as an example detention work that would allow border agents to get “out from behind desks.”

Pentagon officials declined Friday to say whether they were planning for such a contingency, but one defense official said the department would be reluctant to use National Guard soldiers in such a mission. “Border security -- policing -- is not the primary role or mission of the U.S. military,” said the official, who was not authorized to speak by name. The military provides some technical support to the Border Patrol.

In recent weeks, Republican senators have proposed measures that could make the Senate bill more appealing to conservatives.

In late April, the Senate passed a measure co-sponsored by Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.) to provide $2 billion for security along the U.S.-Mexico border, paying for additional agents, surveillance equipment and detention facilities.

Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) floated a proposal that would limit legalization of illegal immigrants to those who had “deep roots” in the United States, such as a spouse or children who were citizens. And Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) plans to introduce a guest worker plan that does not include a path toward enhanced legal status.

But powerful forces are also working against the Senate bill. And with Bush’s approval ratings at the lowest level of his presidency, his power to sway even members of his own party is unclear.

“The real problem lies in whether [Republican] conservatives will accept any bill that includes a path to citizenship” for illegal immigrants, said Marshall Wittmann, a former Republican Senate aide who is now at the centrist Democratic Leadership Council. He likened the struggle within the GOP to a civil war.

For Republicans, passing the kind of broad immigration bill that Bush has called for presents risks. Recent polls show that Bush has suffered a 13% decline in Republican support, in part because of unhappiness about his stance on immigration.

Wittmann added that some strategists within the Democratic Party, which generally backs the approach of the Senate bill, believe the party would benefit if the bill failed. That would leave Republicans having to defend the enforcement-only House bill, which has provoked nationwide protests by immigrants and their advocates, partly because the bill makes it a felony to be an illegal immigrant.

“Democrats would love to see the infighting go on in the Republican ranks through the November elections,” Wittmann said.

Moreover, Democratic voters are ambivalent about the Senate approach. A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll this year found that 56% of Republican voters and 60% of independents supported a guest worker program -- more than the 48% support among Democrats. Those figures reflect the fact that Democratic candidates are more likely to attract voters without a college degree, who are most wary of a guest worker program.

Factors propelling lawmakers toward passage of the Senate bill include the looming political power of Latino voters.

Already the nation’s largest minority group at 42 million, Latinos are also its fastest-growing group, according to new census figures. Immigrant advocates are planning a summer-long voter registration drive to harness that power.

Both parties would like to woo this group, one-third of which is under 18. “The Latino vote is very much up for grabs, and the first party or leader who fashions a compelling message will be rewarded,” said Cecilia Munoz, a vice president at the National Council of La Raza, an immigrant advocate group.

Still, Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) plans to offer an amendment to strip the guest worker program from the bill and expects a fair amount of support from both sides of the aisle. “My belief is that the provision was done to cause the Chamber of Commerce to support the bill,” he said. “But there’s a real serious consequence to American workers.”

Bush’s speech will be the first on domestic policy that he has delivered from the Oval Office. It will be less than 20 minutes.

Although Bush has spoken frequently on immigration, he has avoided discussing specific elements he would like to see in the legislation.

Times staff writers Peter Spiegel and James Gerstenzang contributed to this report.