Gov. needs wow finish to salvage flawed year

Here’s the book on Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger so far, or at least the outline:

Each chapter represents one year as governor. And each year is distinctly different.

Chapter 1

Missed Opportunities

The film superstar enters office with awesome clout that he squanders.

Rather than ram through a temporary tax increase to balance the books, he borrows billions that merely add to future spending on interest. He promises to root out government waste, but can’t find much. He does coax the Legislature into significantly lowering workers’ compensation costs for business. But the mood turns sour when he begins calling Democrats “girlie men.”

Chapter 2 Rejection and Failure

Suffering from hubris and naivete, he blows taxpayers’ money -- and his popularity -- on a special election for ill-conceived “reforms” that voters spurn. He reneges on a deal with the powerful school lobby. His poll numbers plummet.

Chapter 3 Stunning Comeback

Offering a mea culpa, the Republican governor gets cozy with Democrats. They team up to deliver a remarkably productive legislative session: a rare on-time budget, a $37-billion package of public works bonds, a minimum wage hike and an attention-getting assault on global warming. He easily wins reelection.

One problem: He pretty much ignores Republican lawmakers all year.

Chapter 4 Payback and . . .

This chapter cannot be completed for at least five weeks, when the Legislature closes down for the year. But as of now, 2007 is looking like a bust, especially given its early promise amid all the governor’s hype about the new “post-partisanship.”

Post-partisanship was a Schwarzenegger pipe dream generated by an unusual spurt of bipartisan cooperation between the governor and Democrats for their own political reasons last year.

Schwarzenegger needed to steer back toward the middle and pad his record for reelection. Democrats wanted to improve the Legislature’s image to help sell voters next year on term limit flexibility. But Republicans felt snubbed.

In the Assembly, Republicans changed leaders and got over it. They and Democrats recently negotiated and passed a $146-billion budget.

In the Senate, however, Republicans are still griping and gunning for the governor. They clash with him not only in personality but also in philosophy. GOP leader Dick Ackerman of Irvine, after surviving a coup attempt, is under steady pressure from wannabe leaders not to give in to Schwarzenegger -- not to get his arm twisted.

But one key GOP lawmaker says that Schwarzenegger “hasn’t built enough relationships to be able to twist arms” on the budget or anything else.

On the other hand, this Republican adds, the Senate GOP hasn’t exactly improved relations by telling the governor it doesn’t believe his promise to line-item veto $700 million from the budget and reduce its deficit to zero.

“When they say to the governor, ‘We don’t believe you,’ how do they expect him to work with them in good faith?” the legislator says. “They’ve poisoned the well.”

The Capitol mood, observes Senate water committee Chairman Darrell Steinberg (D-Sacramento), “is gloom, despair and depression. Otherwise, things are great.”

Last week, Assembly Speaker Fabian Nuñez (D-Los Angeles) pulled the plug on any major water legislation for this year. Water has been a big item on both the governor’s and the Senate’s agenda. Schwarzenegger was pushing for a $6-billion bond to finance two reservoirs and fix the fragile delta. Senate leader Don Perata (D-Oakland) has his own $5-billion bond.

“I’m done with any kind of bonds from this time forward,” Nuñez told me. Republicans keep demanding lower spending, he explained, “but that’s inconsistent with taking the state deeper into debt by growing the credit card.”

Bond payments currently are costing the state $3.5 billion annually, and that’s projected to grow to $4.8 billion next year.

Moreover, Perata has decreed that no legislation will be taken up in the Senate until a budget is passed.

That includes healthcare, Schwarzenegger’s No. 1 priority.

Achieving universal healthcare, as the governor seeks, always was going to be tricky. Now many players are budget-weary and grumpy. Any previous momentum has gone into reverse.

Nuñez, however, says Democrats will send Schwarzenegger their own healthcare plan on a majority vote. The GOP certainly will howl that the Democrats’ 7.5% payroll “fee” on employers for healthcare actually is a “tax” and therefore requires a two-thirds legislative vote. But Democrats don’t think Republicans will agree to any form of major healthcare expansion so they’ll take their chances with the governor and courts.

Schwarzenegger, despite his desire for a bipartisan bill, might consider negotiating with Democrats and snubbing Republicans again, given the Senate GOP’s current obstinacy.

That would tick off Republicans even more.

But it’s no exaggeration to say that Schwarzenegger’s legacy -- whether he’ll be considered an outstanding or a mediocre governor -- could hinge on what happens in the next five weeks.

Sure, he could shove healthcare and water deliberations into next year. But that’s when he also wants to tackle education reform. The agenda could get very crowded.

It’ll be an election year without the advantages he enjoyed in 2006: Republicans protecting him because he was running for reelection and Democrats on their best behavior. Next year, voters could reject term limit flexibility, forcing leadership changes and embittering lawmakers. And after that, Schwarzenegger will be even more of a lame duck.

Right now, the governor needs to butt heads with Senate Republicans on the budget. Reward and punish. Then he should cozy up to them, as he did Democrats.

Schwarzenegger lately has been providing very unimpressive book material. He needs to change the story line or he won’t like the ending.

george.skelton@latimes.com?