Who wins a February primary? State voters

Candidates call every presidential election “the most important,” and it’s usually hyperbole. But the 2008 race not only will be very important, it could be historic.

And Californians are on track to participate in the nominating process, despite some party poopers who argue that it’ll all be a huge waste of tax money, perhaps $75 million.

With maybe a dozen other states also holding “early” contests on Feb. 5, these critics assert, California still won’t exercise much clout. Better to keep the presidential primary in June.

I look at it this way, to use a basketball analogy: It’s better to be on the court, in the game, even if you never touch the ball, than to sit in the nosebleed seats as a spectator.

Especially in a really big game. Think about it:

The odds are good that Democrats will nominate either the first woman or the first black man to be president of the United States -- New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton or Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.

The Republican race, if not historic, could be equally exciting: a former New York mayor -- a unique combo of war hawk and social liberal -- battling a former Vietnam POW with a compelling story and a maverick manner. Both Rudolph W. Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain can be rousing orators.

Or the GOP conceivably could nominate the first Mormon to be president, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Back to Democratic candidates, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson could be the first Latino president -- but, more likely, vice president.

Then there’s the reincarnated Huey Long, albeit more eloquent and polished in his modern-day populism: former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

“The odds are there’ll be a surprise,” says political consultant Bill Carrick, a veteran of Democratic presidential races.

Another historical note: It’ll be the first election in 56 years when neither an incumbent president nor a sitting vice president is running for the White House. That makes both parties’ contests especially wide open.

You’ve got to go back at least 28 years -- Ronald Reagan vs. President Jimmy Carter -- but probably even further to find an equally fascinating contest: Richard Nixon vs. Vice President Hubert Humphrey in 1968 during the bloody protests over the Vietnam War. Or even Nixon vs. Sen. John F. Kennedy in 1960, when America elected its first Roman Catholic president and turned to a new generation of leadership.

Why would anybody want to miss a moment of this?

But no one had better blink early next year, because both nominations could be locked up by the night of California’s voting. With our “early primary” scheming, we’ve spooked a lot of other states -- including biggies New York, Illinois, Florida, New Jersey and Texas -- and they’re also in the process of moving up their contests to Feb. 5.

The political parties have decreed that the Iowa and Nevada caucuses and New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries -- in that order -- will go first, starting Jan. 14. Then beginning Feb. 5, it’s a free-for-all.

With all those players, California cannot be decisive, even if it does offer roughly one-fifth of the convention delegates needed to be nominated.

“Is it really worth moving up to Feb. 5? Are we deluding ourselves?” asks veteran GOP strategist Ken Khachigian, who says he’s not sure of the answer. “We want to be like Iowa or New Hampshire, and we’re never going to be.”

Khachigian notes that California already influences the nominating process “through the money primary.” Winning candidates must load up on California dollars, even if they never have to stump for votes.

But that’s a “primary” few Californians are rich enough to participate in.

Carrick believes that, ironically, the ultimate result of the multi-state voting on Feb. 5 will be to make the earlier contests even more influential.

No candidate will have enough money to compete in all -- even most -- of the “Super Tuesday” states, he says. “The most important factor on that day will be who has the momentum moving out of those first four states....

“We’re going to have a national primary on Feb. 5.”

Nevertheless, he thinks it’s a good idea to move up the primary. “Here’s your choice: being totally irrelevant in June or somewhat relevant in February. I’ll take the somewhat.”

State Sen. Dave Cox, a Sacramento County Republican, was the principal party pooper when the early primary bill passed the Senate on Tuesday, 31 to 5, and was sent to the Assembly.

“Moving the primary election is not about making California relevant,” Cox declared. “It is about changing term limits and redistricting.”

Cox touched a sensitive nerve, and he is largely correct. He says lawmakers’ main motivation for holding an early election next year is to offer voters proposals to reform political redistricting and make term limits more flexible. This especially energizes Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez (D-Los Angeles), whose leadership tenure could be extended.

But it’s a waste of time and irrelevant to worry about politicians’ motives. What matters most is the impact of political actions on the public.

And as Senate leader Don Perata (D-Oakland) told

reporters before the vote Tuesday: “The more you take self-interest out of any political decision, you reduce the ability to get something

done. I mean, it’s a plain fact of life.”

Nunez, speaking to the Sacramento Press Club, argued that an early primary is about “bread and butter. Because right now, California gets back 79 cents for every dollar we send to D.C. Early primary states ... do much better. I think the prospective nominees should be vetted on their views on this issue.”

Then he told the old story about the Iowa woman who said she hadn’t decided whom to vote for yet, having only talked to each of the candidates twice. “If we can accomplish at least getting a blink or a wink from one of the candidates as they travel to California, I think we’re going to be able to do a lot for this state.”

Maybe.

Most important, Californians deserve a chance to suit up and be part of the action. This will be one contest nobody should have to sit out.

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George Skelton writes Monday and Thursday. Reach him at george.skelton@latimes.com.