Pass or Fail

Flapping his arms and stomping his feet, Peyton Manning barks instructions as if he’s guiding people out of a burning house. He checks the defense and sends a receiver in motion. Checks again and drops into the shotgun.

Manning isn’t just the star quarterback of the offense-heavy Indianapolis Colts, he’s the man at the center of a three-ring circus.

Only his Colts don’t have any rings.

Those three glittering baubles belong to the New England Patriots, who have won three Super Bowls since 2001, twice trampling Indianapolis along the Lombardi Trophy trail.

That’s why Colts Coach Tony Dungy doesn’t look at today’s AFC championship matchup as much of a rivalry -- yet. His team is more like a talented but underachieving sparring partner for the NFL’s heavyweight champ.

“We have to win one,” said Dungy, whose team plays host to the Patriots today in the AFC championship game. “We’ve got to win this game, and then I think it will be [a rivalry] that really goes on and maybe continues to escalate.... So far, these guys have beaten us when it really counted.”

It counted in January 2004, when the Patriots intercepted four Manning passes to beat the visiting Colts, 24-14, in the AFC title game. And it counted a year later, when the high-flying Colts could muster nothing more than a field goal in a 20-3 divisional loss, again at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough.

So what should Indianapolis players make of their consecutive regular-season victories over New England?

“We want to ignore it all,” Dungy said. “I’ve told the team, and I really believe it, that none of that matters. It is really a one-game season, and what happens [today] will determine who moves on and who goes home.”

Lopsided as it has been, the Colts-Patriots matchup is one no football fan can ignore. It’s Manning vs. Tom Brady, Dungy vs. Bill Belichick, and, in a new twist, it’s kicker Adam Vinatieri -- now Mr. Clutch for the Colts -- vs. his old team.

New England and Indianapolis are unlikely rivals, and their history of playing each other is sparse in comparison to classic matchups such as Red Sox-Yankees, Lakers-Celtics or Redskins-Cowboys. But the bitter seeds have been sown.

“These games have counted for a lot, and this one is just as big as all the rest,” Brady said. “So it’s quite a rivalry.”

Today’s chapter, Brady said, “should be one of those classic games.”

Colts President Bill Polian says the matchup has transcended local interest and, like one of Manning’s many commercials, strikes a chord coast to coast.

“You have rivalries with teams in your division and they develop because they are in your division,” Polian recently told the Indianapolis Star. “That’s most often where you find rivalries. It’s rare that you find a non-division rivalry, and the only one I can think of in recent times has been the Cowboys and the 49ers.

“That’s exactly what this is. Two really good teams, one of whom has a phenomenal record of success with championships and Super Bowls and another that’s striving for that.”

The Colts are 9-0 at the RCA Dome this season, including their victory over Kansas City in a wild-card game. Brady, meanwhile, is 10-0 when playing indoors as the starter.

Since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger, New England is 5-0 in conference championship games. But Brady is 0-2 in his last two games against the Colts, including a four-interception stinker earlier this season. That matched the interception count for his first seven games against Indianapolis.

In their last two games, the Colts’ run defense has gone from gelatin to granite. After giving up a league-worst 173 yards rushing a game during the regular season, the Colts shut down Kansas City’s Larry Johnson and Baltimore’s Jamal Lewis in consecutive weeks, giving up an average of 63.5 yards rushing a playoff game. That’s the best regular season-to-postseason improvement since at least 1970.

Safety Bob Sanders said the defensive resurgence was about attitude, passion and “wanting to be the team where we don’t have to really rely on our offense.”

The Colts might have changed, but the Patriots are still using their hallmark consistency to gnaw away at opponents. They’re experts when it comes to mind games, especially in the postseason.

For example, at San Diego last Sunday, they stubbornly stayed in the tunnel despite twice being summoned by the public-address announcer. It wasn’t until the Chargers ran onto the field, and the home crowd erupted, that the Patriots jogged on behind them. That left the San Diego fans not knowing whether to cheer or boo.

History indicates that the Patriots are already in Manning’s head, at least judging by the quarterback’s performance against them in the playoffs as compared to the regular season. In his last four regular-season games against them, Manning had 11 touchdowns and four interceptions. In postseason games against them, he has one touchdown and five interceptions.

Resurfacing again this week was the long-standing speculation that Manning, despite his excellence during the regular season, simply can’t win the big games.

He seemed to be bracing for that talk last Sunday after the Colts’ victory at Baltimore.

“I’m into kind of enjoying the journey and not the destination,” he said. “I planned on playing for a long time, and I’ve had highs and I’ve had lows and we’re in the middle of a good opportunity right now.

“I just want to kind of enjoy the ride and not over-analyze my career. It seems like for so long it’s been, ‘Colts win, but then Peyton Manning loses.’ Either give me all the credit when we win or give the team the blame when we lose.

“The way it should be is, ‘Colts win’ or ‘Colts lose.’ ”

Colts beat the Patriots with a Super Bowl appearance on the line?

Now that has an unfamiliar ring to it.

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sam.farmer@latimes.com

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The matchup

The Colts and Patriots today will meet in the playoffs for the third time in the last four seasons. A look at how quarterbacks Tom Brady of the Patriots and Peyton Manning of the Colts performed in the two previous meetings:

2004-05 DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS

New England 20, Indianapolis 3

*--* Att Comp Yards TDs Int T. Brady 27 18 144 1 0 P. Manning 42 27 238 0 1

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2003-04 AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

New England 24, Indianapolis 14

*--* Att Comp Yards TDs Int T. Brady 37 22 237 1 1 P. Manning 47 23 237 1 4

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Source: STATS LLC

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Patriots’ payback policy

If the Indianapolis Colts win today’s game, they will achieve the rare feat of defeating the New England Patriots twice in a season. Since 2001, counting regular-season and playoff games, only one team has managed to defeat New England twice in the same season, and the Patriots are 7-1 in “revenge games” -- those against teams that had beaten them earlier in the same season:

*--* 2001 Regular season at New York Jets Won, 17-16 2001 Regular season vs. Miami Dolphins Won, 20-13 2001 Super Bowl vs. St. Louis Rams Won, 20-17 2002 Regular season vs. Miami Dolphins Won, 27-24 (OT) 2003 Regular season vs. Buffalo Bills Won, 31-0 2004 AFC title game at Pittsburgh Steelers Won, 41-27 2005 Divisional playoff at Denver Broncos Lost, 27-13 2006 Wild-card playoff vs. New York Jets Won, 37-16

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Source: STATS LLC