Dodgers are the masters of their fate

Over the next six days, the out-of-town scoreboard at Dodger Stadium won’t mean as much.

Visiting the Dodgers for a three-game series that starts today are the San Diego Padres, whom the Dodgers trail in the National League wild-card race by 2 1/2 games with 19 games remaining. On deck are the Arizona Diamondbacks, who hold a six-game edge over them in the National League West.

“We can’t wait for a miracle,” closer Takashi Saito said. “We have to create one.”

Said center fielder Juan Pierre: “At least this week, you can’t say it’s anybody’s fault but our own because we’re playing the teams ahead of us.”

The six-game homestand can’t make the Dodgers’ season, but it can certainly break it.

The Dodgers don’t face the Padres again, and being swept by them would put them 5 1/2 games out of the wild card with 16 games to play. As they stand, the Dodgers are in third place in that race, as they also trail Philadelphia.

“It won’t make it impossible, but it will make it pretty improbable,” reliever Joe Beimel said.

The Dodgers enter the series with the Padres after concluding a brutal 19-game stretch in which 16 were on the road. They ended a three-city, 10-game trip Sunday with a 5-5 mark, as they lost two of three games to the last-place San Francisco Giants.

The losses to the Giants were particularly heartbreaking. A sweep in San Francisco would have put the Dodgers within half a game of the Padres, but their arm-weary bullpen blew a couple of late-game leads.

“Now,” first baseman James Loney said, “we have to see what we’re made of.”

But the team’s veterans, Manager Grady Little and General Manager Ned Colletti warned against putting too much emphasis on the upcoming six games.

“The games that are the most important are the games that will put you on the verge of elimination,” second baseman Jeff Kent said. “I don’t think that that’s coming this week. It frustrates me that it gets amped so much like that.

“It’s going to be important for us to play consistent baseball without being emotionally involved.”

Pierre also advocated a certain degree of emotional detachment, saying, “You can’t make up five games in one day.”

The Padres, who beat the Dodgers in two of three games in San Diego at the start of their most recent trip, aren’t storming into this series either. By losing two of three games to Arizona and Colorado in their last two series, the Padres let the Rockies get back in the thick of the wild-card race. Colorado is one game behind the Dodgers.

But the Padres have taken nine of 15 games from the Dodgers, and their earned-run average is 3.52 in those contests.

Tonight, the Padres will send Cy Young favorite Jake Peavy to the mound. Peavy is 8-1 lifetime against the Dodgers and 2-0 this season. In a 7-0 Padres win 10 days ago, Peavy shut them out for seven innings. The Padres’ starter Thursday night will be Greg Maddux, who was part of the Dodgers’ playoff push last season. Maddux is also 2-0 against the Dodgers this season.

“I wouldn’t say make-or-break, but if we don’t take care of business at home, it’ll be that much tougher,” Pierre said. “If we play well and get back in the hunt, we still have two weeks after that. There’s still time to mess up either way -- either we mess up or the other team messes up.”

The remainder of the Dodgers’ schedule consists entirely of games within their division. They visit Colorado for four games in three days starting Sept. 18 and then go to Arizona. Their regular season will conclude at Dodger Stadium with series against Colorado and last-place San Francisco.

San Diego has two series left against the Giants, one at home (Friday-Sunday) and one on the road (Sept. 24-26). They also will play host to Colorado and Pittsburgh, which has the third-worst record in the National League. And at the end of the Padres’ schedule is a four-game showdown at Milwaukee, tied for the lead in the NL Central.

Arizona is in the midst of a three-game set against the Giants, and will face them again at home next week. The Diamondbacks will play host to the Dodgers from Sept. 21-23, then finish the season against Pittsburgh and Colorado.

Even Kent acknowledged that the Dodgers had to start making their move. “We do understand that we have to start making up some ground,” he said. “Time is shortening itself.”

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dylan.hernandez@latimes.com

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Hitting the wall?

Broxton’s home runs allowed

After going 94 games without giving up a home run, Dodgers reliever Jonathan Broxton has given up four homers in 11 games, including three in his last four appearances.

*--* Date Hitter Team Bats Count Pitch Type Velocity Location Aug. 23 Tadahito Phillies R 2-1 Fastball 95 Middle/A Iguchi way Sept. 6 Alfonso Cubs R 3-1 Fastball 94 Middle/D Soriano own Sept. 7 Daniel Giants L 0-0 Fastball 95 Middle/M Ortmeier iddle Sept. 9 Ray Durham Giants L 0-2 Slider 89 Middle/In *--*

Broxton’s fastball location

One thing the recent homers given up by Broxton have in common is location. Each home run pitch found the middle of the plate. Broxton’s high-octane fastball is at its best when he elevates it. As the chart below shows, unlike pitchers who don’t throw as hard, Broxton is better off when he doesn’t keep the ball down in the strike zone. But since Broxton’s homerless streak ended, he has used his more effective high fastball less often -- 31% of his fastballs from April 1 to Aug. 22 were high, compared with 24% since.

*--* Pitch Location BAVG SLG H AB Miss Pct. of Swings Fastball up 184 204 9 49 31% Fastball middle 210 339 13 62 15% Fastball down 340 491 18 53 14% *--*

Source: Inside Edge Scouting Services