Looking out for No. 1s

By Robyn Norwood

March 26, 2008 12 AM PT

Yes, look at those four unbeatable No.1-seeded teams.

But at least three of them are going to lose before somebody cuts down the nets April 7 in San Antonio.

Coaches are scheming and players are dreaming about how to pull the upsets.

Here are some ideas culled from coaches who played the top teams and analysts who watched their games about what would need to happen for the favorites to lose.

Any team that is going to beat North Carolina, the top-seeded team in the tournament, would have to slow down the game, Virginia Tech Coach Seth Greenberg can tell you that much.

“The first time we played them, we went up and down with them. They almost scored 100,” he said. The Hokies lost by 39.

The second time, they kept the Tar Heels under 70 and fell by two in a 68-66 loss to the Tar Heels in the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament.

The push-and-pull over pace will be evident in the East Regional semifinal Thursday between North Carolina and Washington State.

The Cougars held their first two NCAA opponents in the 40s. The Tar Heels scored more than 100 in their first two.

“You’re not going to beat them in a 90-point game,” Greenberg said. “They’re the anti-UCLA. UCLA wears you down. They can play fast, but they want it in the 60s, 70s, 80s. Carolina wants to be in the 80s or 90s.”

And how is anybody going to beat those Bruins?

“You better hope they have a bad shooting night,” said Arizona assistant coach Kevin O’Neill, who played three of the No. 1s -- Kansas, Memphis and UCLA -- and was quick to suggest he was a bad person to ask for advice. “We didn’t beat any of them,” he said.

“With UCLA, if they don’t shoot the ball well from the outside, you’ve got a chance to beat them,” he said. “But you have to have size to deal with Kevin Love, and you have to have depth to get people in foul trouble.”

ESPN analyst Fran Fraschilla zeroed in on the Bruins’ offense too.

“One question is, are they going to be able to get enough offense from anybody not named Darren Collison or Kevin Love to win it all?” he said.

How about Memphis? Everybody thinks they know that one. Line up along the lane and watch the Tigers clang free throws off the rim. The Tigers shoot 59.7% from the line.

“I don’t think that will be the ultimate reason,” said USC Coach Tim Floyd, whose team lost to Memphis in overtime in December after mixing up defenses against the Tigers.

Keep the ball out of Joey Dorsey’s 38.7% free-throw shooting hands, and put it in Derrick Rose’s or Chris Douglas-Roberts’ and the Tigers can put nearly 70% free-throw shooters on the line.

“I think the guards will have the ball in their hands late,” Floyd said.

“I think to beat them, you’ve got to guard the dribble. You’ve got to be able to make perimeter shots and you’ve got to be able to withstand their pressure defense.”

Kansas is a team plenty of people like because the balanced and veteran Jayhawks are solid offensively and defensively, have an inside game and an outside game.

Fraschilla loves Kansas, but he wonders about the burden of past failures, including first-round losses in 2005 and 2006 before getting knocked out by UCLA in the Elite Eight last season.

“If they fall anywhere short of the Final Four, it won’t be good enough for their coach, their players and most certainly not for the great fans of Kansas basketball,” he said. “I think it’s an 800-pound gorilla on their back.”

Who’s going to stop North Carolina, UCLA, Kansas or Memphis? Maybe the team that can play the best defense.

“North Carolina and Kansas want to play screen and roll, and UCLA guards that well,” Floyd said. “UCLA defends the post. I think, better than anybody left in the tournament.

“And like Memphis, North Carolina and Kansas, they’ve got great guard play. It’s not talked enough about how great point guards get you to the Final Four. It was true of Arizona; it’s true of UCLA. [Collison] has the ball 80% of the game, he makes great decisions, he’s able to finish in traffic.

“They’re very confident in close games, probably more than anybody in the field. I think it’s to their advantage. They’ve experienced Final Fours.

“It would be hard for me to go against them.”

Yes it would. Especially because he has to share a town with them when it’s over.

robyn.norwood@latimes.com

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Schedule

WEST REGIONAL

Thursday at Phoenix

No. 3 Xavier vs.

No. 7 West Virginia, 4:10 p.m.

No. 1 UCLA vs.

No. 12 Western Kentucky, 6:40 p.m.*