‘Idol’ victory won’t be a piece of cake

A hall of mirrors. The battle of all against all. Like wrestling in quicksand. This is how “American Idol” punditry will no doubt describe the impossible task of making sense of this season; even trying to grope for the shape of the contest is infuriatingly slippery.

After last week, we seemed to have a clear top tier (David Archuleta, Carly Smithson), a clear middle tier (David Cook, Jason Castro, Brooke White, Chikezie) and a clearly doomed group (Michael Johns, Kristy Lee Cook, Ramiele Maluby, Syesha Mercado).

But on Tuesday night, once again all prognoses had to be thrown out with the bathwater. As has happened before, the doomed saved themselves, the giants faltered, the middle rank soared to greatness and the ingredients to the race were poured back into a tumbler and vigorously shaken until badly bruised. Now we can see that there will be no easy victory here. This will not be the invasion of Grenada or the 1972 Miami Dolphins. This will be the Democratic presidential primary, the Battle of Verdun, the “Shakespeare in Love”/”Saving Private Ryan” Oscar race, Krystle Carrington versus Alexis Colby. It will go down to the final moments of the season.

In the Idoldome on Tuesday night, the crowd was in a near-frenzy over the excitement of this season, and there was a slightly dizzy, nervous energy emanating from the contestants, now entering the hard-slog phase of the campaign. Onstage, the group was all team spirit and “we must hang together or surely we’ll hang apart” as stage manager Debbie Williams summoned out the Ten at a break so Angel of Death Seacrest could hold a birthday cake for contestant Jason Castro while his fellow candidates and the audience sang “Happy Birthday.”

But beneath the bonhomie and good tidings there was the certainly growing awareness that among this group stand just two people who will ultimately fight for the greatest honor in entertainment, and that all of those who are not destined to stand on that Nokia stage must now, talented as they are, indispensable as they may seem, fall one by one.

That said, here is what we know for certain:

Kristy Lee Cook, on the brink of extinction, pulled off possibly the most brilliant maneuver in the history of “American Idol,” shamelessly choosing a nationally sacred anthem, “God Bless the U.S.A.,” and guaranteeing there is no way on Earth she can be thrown off on that patriotic note.

Next week is country week, so she won’t be thrown off then, either -- climbing her way from the bottom tiers of the top 24 to the dizzying heights of the top 8. (However, people often mess up when the theme is too close to their comfort zone.)

Although the novelty of David Archuleta has worn off and he has now delivered more than one non-Earth-shattering performance, the tween/teen girl hysteria for him is greater than ever. As I left the Idoldome on Tuesday I rode the adjacent parking garage escalator six floors up with some of the girls who had been standing in the front. An hour after the show, they were still shaking, sobbing and screeching about their encounter with the Chosen One. I’ll say it yet again, no demographic can match the voting power of hysterically excited tween girls.

That said, for the first time this season, the Chosen One fell out of first place on the sporadically accurate DialIdol voting analysis, replaced at the top by David Cook.

David Cook seems to have crossover appeal, drawing on teens and grown-up rock fans alike. He also has the ability to repeatedly surprise audiences.

However, if his reawakening lasts, Michael Johns, the Duende From Down Under, has charisma that gives him unlimited upside potential.

Carly Smithson remains, in the opinion of this column, the most electrifyingly talented performer perhaps in the history of “American Idol,” with bottomless depths to her singing and the ability to perform brilliantly in almost any style -- the latter a quality that will serve her well in the coming theme weeks. However, there are concerns that her style is too dark and intense for the cheery-centric “Idol” stage.

Despite an off-kilter persona and low-key singing style, Tweety Bird White has been consistently gaining buzz and fans.

So have Jason Castro and Chikezie.

And now Syesha is back in the race, possibly.

All of which implies that two weeks from now, for all we know Ramiele could be the prohibitive front-runner. Enjoy Jason’s birthday cake while you can, contestants. The road is going to get even rockier than you can imagine, starting just about now.

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richard.rushfield@latimes.com