He has this race primed, ready
So, you want to bet on the Preakness, or at least sound intelligent about it as you watch today on TV. We are here to help.
The basics:
The race is the second leg of horse racing’s coveted Triple Crown. No horse has won the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978. The only one with a chance this year is Mine That Bird, who won the Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds. This 134th Preakness is held at Pimlico, an aging fire trap that exists on tradition and certainly not ambience. The horses will start running about 3:15 p.m. PDT.
The story lines:
The race favorite is a filly, Rachel Alexandra. Her morning-line odds were 8-5. She did not run in the Kentucky Derby but won the main filly race, the Oaks, the day before, by more than 20 lengths. The last time a filly won the Preakness was 1924. Her jockey is Calvin Borel, who actually rode Mine That Bird in the Derby but chose Rachel Alexandra for the Preakness. That jockey-switch scenario has never happened before.
The angles: (And there are more here than you’d get from a guy trying to sell you a 1995 Chevy).
Gender Bet Part 1 -- Officials expect heavy wagering on Rachel Alexandra from females. Just because.
Gender Bet, Part 2 -- Hard-core race insiders, most of them male, are seldom high on the chances of a filly against the boys, and they will tend to bet against her. Just because.
Veteran trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who has actually picked the filly to win, sums up this girls-are-the-weaker-sex racing axiom when he says, “If you asked the [opposing] trainers and they bared their souls, they’d tell you that what they’d like to see is have her have some pressure, have horses around her, dirt in her face, something like that.”
The Safest, Smartest Bet -- Bob Baffert’s Pioneerof the Nile was second in the Derby, Baffert has won four times here and has been a player in Triple Crown races almost every year since the mid-1990s. The jockey is Garrett Gomez, who has been the best rider in the country the last two years. Pioneer is the second choice on the morning line at 5-1.
The Best Value For Your Money -- Papa Clem’s morning-line odds are 12-1. This Gary Stute-trained horse was in the thick of things in the Derby finish, was bumped out by Pioneerof the Nile coming home and finished fourth. “It’s the Kentucky Derby,” Stute says. “Any other race, they might take a number down.” A wager of $10 across the board here might return enough for a nice dinner.
In Memory of Calvin Borel Best Longshot -- Trainer Todd Pletcher has more horses than most mall parking lots have cars, which means he has to know what he is doing. Rider Edgar Prado was Barbaro’s jockey. He went into the Hall of Fame last year. Their horse is Take The Points, who has won twice in six tries, both under Prado. His morning odds are 30-1. A wager of $10 across the board might return enough for a nice vacation.
In Hopes That Lukas Is Really Back Longshot -- The 73-year-old racetrack legend, who says his training business is picking up, has entered more horses than anybody in the Preakness and has won five times, most recently with Charismatic in 1999. His Luv Gov and Flying Private will be his 33rd and 34th Preakness starters and both are 50-1. A wager of $10 across the board might return enough to fly first class on that vacation.
Calvin Borel Is a Freak Bet -- Put the milk money on Rachel Alexandra.
Calvin Borel Is a Fluke Bet -- Put the milk money on the horse he left behind, Mine That Bird.
Bet With Your Heart -- Tom McCarthy is 75, owns and trains one horse, is a former biology teacher and high school principal. His General Quarters finished 10th in the Derby and is 20-1 for the Preakness. Bet the milk money and you’ll still feel good, no matter the outcome.
Bet With Your Gut -- Friesan Fire went off as the Derby favorite and may still be running up the track at Churchill. His current odds are 6-1, sharing third choice with Mine That Bird. But beware. Our columnist, Bill Plaschke, picked Friesan’s Fire in the Kentucky Derby. He also picked the Titanic over the iceberg.
Remember Afleet Alex Bet -- Jeremy Rose will ride 30-1 shot Terrain. In the 2005 Preakness, he rode Afleet Alex, who stumbled at the top of the stretch, nearly went down and took Rose with him, but recovered and went on to win.
Remember Big Brown Bet -- Kent Desormeaux will ride 50-1 shot Tone It Down. Last year, after riding Big Brown to a smashing Kentucky Derby victory, Desormeaux rode him to a win in the Preakness and had horse racing atwitter for a Triple Crown until Big Brown stopped running in the Belmont.
Get Me To The Race On Time -- Musket Man, third in the Derby, will be vanned into Baltimore this morning. He will leave Monmouth Park, N.J., in the middle of the night for the trip. His owners say he always does well when he is vanned in the morning of the race.
It’s Our Rail, Not Calvin’s -- Big Drama will start on the inside. He is 10-1, didn’t run in the Derby, but would have been 6-0 in his last six races had he not intruded on a competitor in the March 28 Swale at Gulfstream and been placed second after winning.
There you have it. Thirteen horses, 6,000 betting angles.
My pick? Rachel Alexandra. Girls’ night out in Baltimore.
--
--
(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)
Liam Durbin’s Preakness Stakes handicap
12th race on the card. Post time about 3 p.m., Channel 4.
1 1/16 miles on dirt at Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore.
$1.1-million purse for 3-year-olds.
Mine That Bird takes a huge class boost all the way to the top in the computer rankings. He definitely has a shot today if he runs back to anything close to his Derby effort. He will go off at tempting odds (higher than 6-1). Surprisingly, the morning-line favorite, Rachel Alexandra, gets dropped all the way to sixth in the rankings because of her lack of a class score. Pioneerof The Nile had a great resume put together coming into the Derby, where he finished second. So his ranking stayed very strong at second. The highest-ranking newcomer is Big Drama, who gets a big boost by his near-perfect record. This race actually sets up for Mine That Bird better than the Derby did. The addition of Rachel Alexandra sets up the speed on the front end he needs for his big late run. He will compete for last place with longshot Terrain. I will throw out the morning-line favorite because her flattering morning-line odds are an early indication of how badly she will be overbet. She definitely could get it done, but I believe her outside post and taking on the boys for the first time will be too difficult to overcome. Pioneerof The Nile looked as if he gave a lot in the Derby and struggled down the stretch. I’m calling for a bounce and will throw him out. I will have money on Mine That Bird and Musket Man for my win bets and those two in my exacta. For my trifecta I will box Mine That Bird, Terrain, Musket Man and Rachel Alexandra.
-- Liam Durbin
