‘Little Fockers’ is likely Christmas weekend winner

The Christmas weekend box office will be led by “Little Fockers,” but Robert De Niro’s and Ben Stiller’s dysfunctional family won’t be as dominant as previously expected.

The star-laden comedy, which is being distributed domestically by Universal Pictures, opened Wednesday with $7.2 million in ticket sales. While it was strong enough to be No. 1, it was far behind the opening of “Meet the Fockers,” the second film in the series, which sold $12.1 million in tickets when it debuted on the same December date six years ago.

People who have seen pre-release audience surveys had expected “Fockers” to take in about $60 million in tickets sales by Sunday. After Wednesday’s weaker-than-expected showing, however, it now appears likely to gross closer to $50 million.

One reason it fell short could be strong competition. The Coen brothers-directed western “True Grit” also opened Wednesday and sold $5.5 million worth of tickets. It now appears that Paramount Pictures’ well-reviewed remake, which stars Jeff Bridges and Matt Damon, should take in $25 million to $30 million by Sunday.

The only other new movie opening nationwide this weekend is the Jack Black comedy “Gulliver’s Travels.” 20th Century Fox’s 3-D adaptation of the classic Jonathan Swift tale debuts Christmas Day and probably will take in a little less than $10 million for the two-day weekend, as it appears to be generating soft pre-release interest.

Movie attendance is traditionally light on Christmas Eve — which is why “Gulliver’s” opens Saturday — but Christmas has become a lucrative day for the industry in recent years. Because many people are off school and work between Christmas and New Year’s Day, whichever films do best over the weekend should rake in more during the following week.

With its cadre of big-name stars that include De Niro, Stiller, Dustin Hoffman, Barbra Streisand and Jessica Alba, “Little Fockers” is a high-stakes film for Universal and financing partners Paramount and Relativity Media, each of which covered one-third of the budget. Three people close to the picture said it cost $130 million to $140 million to produce, though a Universal spokeswoman said the cost was about $100 million.

The large investment could pay off if “Little Fockers” does nearly as well as its predecessor. “Meet the Fockers” was a hit for families with children old enough to see the PG-13 high jinks; it grossed $279.3 million domestically and $237.4 million overseas. Paramount opens the film in most overseas markets this weekend.

After its so-so start Wednesday, however, it remains to be seen whether “Little Fockers” will be the choice for families over the holidays.

After a good but not great opening driven largely by fanboys, Walt Disney Studios is hoping “Tron: Legacy” will draw a more diverse crowd this weekend.

If word of mouth from opening-day crowds at “True Grit” are as good as reviews have been, Paramount should have a financial winner on its hands. The movie cost only about $35 million to produce.

Fox, meanwhile, will probably have a tough time turning a profit on “Gulliver’s Travels” unless it becomes a big hit overseas. It was co-financed with Dune Entertainment and Ingenious Film Partners at a cost of about $112 million.

Two specialty films in limited release, the Weinstein Co.’s historical tale “The King’s Speech” and Fox Searchlight’s psychological drama “Black Swan,” will significantly expand their presence in theaters this weekend and could compete with “Gulliver’s Travels” on the lower end of the top 10 box office chart.

ben.fritz@latimes.com