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New ‘Footloose’ could dance circles around rivals

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Nearly three decades after the original “Footloose” became a cultural phenomenon, a remake of the ‘80s dance flick may shimmy its way back to the top of the box office this weekend.

The film is expected to open with close to $20 million, according to people who have seen pre-release audience pollings. That gives it a good shot at claiming the No. 1 spot over “Real Steel,” the robot-boxing action movie that debuted with $27.3 million last weekend. Starring Hugh Jackman, the picture is expected to bring in an additional $16 million or so this round.

Another reboot from the 1980s, the sci-fi horror film “The Thing,” is likely to start off with around $14 million. But the other new wide release, “The Big Year,” starring Steve Martin, Owen Wilson and Jack Black, could prove to be one of the biggest flops of the year. Despite its moderate budget, the comedy may open to only about $5 million.

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The original 1984 “Footloose,” about a group of teenagers faced with a dance ban in their small town, was a career-making turn for its star Kevin Bacon and became a sleeper hit, grossing more than $80 million worldwide.

Tracking surveys indicated that the updated film was generating especially strong interest among young females, meaning it could end up with an opening-weekend take in the high teens. But a representative for Paramount, which produced the film, said the studio expects a debut closer to $15 million.

To boost word of mouth about the reboot –- which had a modest budget of about $24 million — Paramount sent the film’s mostly unknown cast on a cross-country promotional tour to more than a dozen cities. To further build buzz, this month the studio also offered free screenings of the Craig Brewer-directed movie in 25 markets nationwide.

Along with attracting younger females, the film could resonate with women in their 40s who are nostalgic for the original version. Last weekend, the film opened in New Zealand and Australia, grossing a total of just over $1 million, and will bow this weekend in five additional foreign markets.

“The Thing,” billed as a prequel to the 1982 John Carpenter-directed film, probably will appeal to a mostly male crowd. The movie, about a team in Antarctica trying to find the origins of an alien creature, was financed by Universal Pictures for about $38 million.

Overseas, where Universal is distributing the picture on behalf of Morgan Creek Productions, “The Thing” will open in five countries this weekend, including Australia and France.

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Twentieth Century Fox’s “The Big Year” boasts three top comedy stars, but the studio will have little else to brag about after the film’s expected dismal debut. The movie, about three competitive bird watchers, is poised to have one of the lowest openings of any major studio release this year.

Co-financed by 20th Century Fox and Dune Entertainment, the picture was relatively inexpensive to produce — about $41 million before Canadian tax credits. But if its opening weekend is as low as expected, its financial backers will lose millions of dollars.

Martin, Wilson and Black have promoted the movie on a number of popular television talk shows, including “Good Morning America” and “The Ellen DeGeneres Show.” But because the film centers around bird watching — perhaps not the most scintillating of subjects — it will likely be a tough sell for audiences.

amy.kaufman@latimes.com

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