Senate immigration bill could slash federal deficit, report says
A Senate bill meant to offer a pathway to citizenship for the estimated 11 million people in the U.S. who entered illegally or stayed on expired visas could trim the deficit by about $175 billion over the next 10 years, according to a federal report.
The report from the Congressional Budget Office and Joint Committee on Taxation also found federal budget deficits would decrease by about $700 billion from 2024 to 2033.
“However, the net impact of the bill on federal deficits would depend on future actions by lawmakers, who could choose to appropriate more or less than the amounts estimated by CBO,” the report said.
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About 8 million people would initially gain legal status under the bill, but that change would not affect the size of the U.S. population.
By 2023, the country would see an increase of about 10.4 million permanent residents, an increase of about 1.6 million temporary workers and their dependents and a decrease of about 1.6 million people who lack legal status.
If Senate Bill 744 passes, federal spending would increase by $262 billion over the 2014 to 2023 period. Most of that increase would be because of refundable tax credits stemming from the growth in population under the bill and in healthcare programs, particularly Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act.
However federal revenue would grow by $459 billion during the same period, stemming largely from additional collections of income and payroll taxes, because of a boost in the labor force and changes in the legal status of current workers.
There were no estimates on the affect the bill would have on state, local and tribal governments, but the inquiry concluded it would have negative and positive impacts.
“The effects of immigration policies on the federal budget are complicated and uncertain, and they become even more so as they extend further into the future,” the report said.
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